ATL: TEDDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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MarioProtVI
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#321 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:Goes down to 80kts.

20L TEDDY 200917 0000 17.6N 51.0W ATL 80 973

Chances of this becoming a major are going out the window rapidly..
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#322 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:13 pm

MarioProtVI wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Goes down to 80kts.

20L TEDDY 200917 0000 17.6N 51.0W ATL 80 973

Chances of this becoming a major are going out the window rapidly..


Not necessarily, like said earlier they did this earlier, and it wasn't correct then, and most likely isn't correct this time. Most likely still around 100 or so MPH.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#323 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:30 pm

aspen wrote:EWRC appears to be in effect. It has to complete quickly for Teddy to have time to RI before shear picks up on Friday.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al20/amsusr89/2020al20_amsusr89_202009162140.gif

Of course. Paulette and now Teddy with ERWCs at the worst time to possibly prevent them from becoming majors
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#324 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:34 pm

What’s with EWRC in weaker storms this year?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#325 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:39 pm

ClarCari wrote:What’s with EWRC in weaker storms this year?

And on the flip side, Laura didn’t even bother with an EWRC at all. I’m not sure there was any outer eyewall prior to landfall. Just our luck, the intensifying systems far from land get crippled by EWRCs before they become majors, and intensifying systems close to land don’t have any.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#326 Postby jaxfladude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:43 pm

So is Teddy any more or less of a threat to any landmass/island etc in the Atlantic Basin?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#327 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:50 pm

Well since there's EWRC ongoing I suppose that 80kt best track is legit this time. He's gonna really need to get that wrapped up quick and then RI to get to major status
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#328 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:59 pm

Image
I see an intensifying storm with very deep eyewall convection overtopping a solid MW eye.
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#329 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:59 pm

Looking at the SAL map Teddy has been isolating a decent moisture pocket in the last few hours, whereas it entrained some dry air earlier. I think a major hurricane is very likely at a higher latitude, especially if the interaction with the trof is favorable
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#330 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:10 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/755970710140223570/GOES16_1km_ir_202009170145_13.png
I see an intensifying storm with very deep eyewall convection overtopping a solid MW eye.

He may be struggling with internal structure issues, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t trying to put on a good show. I forget the last Atlantic storm with so much deep convection.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#331 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:17 pm

I had gotten permissions several years ago to post content on here from my blog. I hope that is still ok.

I wrote a little article about the possibility of a NorthEast impact from Teddy:
http://theweatherwatch.org/hurricane-te ... ast-coast/
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#332 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:20 pm

All Teddy needs to do is clear out the eye and it's bombs away. That looks close to a T5.0 to me with an embedded center.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#333 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:50 pm

Officially down to a Cat 1 this time. Peak intensity has also been lowered to 100 kt.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#334 Postby bob rulz » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:54 pm

So the story of 2020 is that everything develops but nothing intensifies unless it's on a coastline
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#335 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:06 pm

bob rulz wrote:So the story of 2020 is that everything develops but nothing intensifies unless it's on a coastline


Seems like everything east of 65 struggles and under-performs, and everything west of that (and unfortunately as a result, near land) over-performs.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#336 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:14 pm

Hammy wrote:
bob rulz wrote:So the story of 2020 is that everything develops but nothing intensifies unless it's on a coastline


Seems like everything east of 65 struggles and under-performs, and everything west of that (and unfortunately as a result, near land) over-performs.


2020 is just trolling everyone. Those who wishcast every storm away from land and those who wishcast long-duration, 130kt+ ACE monsters with spectacular stadium eyes for days. Nobody gets what they want. :roll:
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#337 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:25 pm

Ironically I think this is the best Teddy has ever looked. He finally has a full W ring, and is firing some of the deepest convection yet in a more distributed fashion

As an aside, CMG sounds so much cooler than B and W.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#338 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:37 pm

Still got some CDG in there although not quite as much as earlier, but still impressive for an Atlantic storm. Now he has to wrap it all the way around, if he can do that, easily a major.
Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#339 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:42 pm

Weather Dude wrote:Still got some CDG in there although not quite as much as earlier, but still impressive for an Atlantic storm. Now he has to wrap it all the way around, if he can do that, easily a major.
https://i.imgur.com/IvTY8YT.gif


Huh? What do you mean "Impressive for an Atlantic Storm" LOL :lol: There have been MANY far more impressive. Are you talking about just 2020????
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#340 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:43 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Still got some CDG in there although not quite as much as earlier, but still impressive for an Atlantic storm. Now he has to wrap it all the way around, if he can do that, easily a major.
https://i.imgur.com/IvTY8YT.gif


Huh? What do you mean "Impressive for an Atlantic Storm" LOL :lol: There have been MANY far more impressive.

Oh yeah most definitely. I just meant we don't see CDG all that often over here :lol: And yes just 2020
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