ATL: TEDDY - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: TEDDY - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:55 pm

Only model runs for 95L/future Sally.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#2 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:18 pm

18z ICON sticks with the two TC development and 95L/Sally sticking to a due-west low-rider track through 120 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:45 pm

First 95L Bam hurricane models.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#4 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:48 pm

18Z GFS ensembles:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#5 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:57 pm

18Z HWRF for Rene shows track for 95L:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#6 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z HWRF for Rene shows track for 95L:

https://i.postimg.cc/cLwCrphv/hwrf-p-mslp-wind-18-L-fh72-126.gif


Into Caribbean there likely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#7 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:00 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z HWRF for Rene shows track for 95L:

https://i.postimg.cc/cLwCrphv/hwrf-p-mslp-wind-18-L-fh72-126.gif

Very similar to the 12z HWRF run, except like the 18z GFS, it’s developed Sally a little earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#8 Postby Cat5James » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:01 pm

Any info on the 18Z Euro?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#9 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:07 pm

18z EPS is further south near the Caribbean. :eek:

Initially 50/50

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Last edited by SFLcane on Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#10 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:14 pm

18Z GFS animation from medium to long-range:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#11 Postby CFLHurricane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:25 pm



I choose to believe this model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#12 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:28 pm

its like 55% carrib bound..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#13 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:31 pm

HUGE shift west by the NAVGEM:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#14 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:32 pm

It's pretty clear from that EPS loop. If the western part of the wave keeps moving west and doesn't get caught up with the eastern part of the envelope and even the next wave, then it has a pretty good chance of threatening the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#15 Postby MJGarrison » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:34 pm

SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z HWRF for Rene shows track for 95L:

https://i.postimg.cc/cLwCrphv/hwrf-p-mslp-wind-18-L-fh72-126.gif


Into Caribbean there likely.

Can someone verify whether the 95L track on Rene would be valid? I thought the hurricane models were run against a localized area near the storm itself so the tracks would only be valid for the storm it is run against.

Also, the track is highly dependent on the global model that the hurricane model is based on?


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#16 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its like 55% carrib bound..

https://i.ibb.co/wBTgtpT/19428378-1.gif

One thing I notice from this is that there are predominantly 2 options. Either the western lobe takes over and moves to the Caribbean, or the eastern lobe takes over and begins moving nw from the start. There are only a few members that take the western lobe and turn it north in this set.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#17 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:38 pm

MJGarrison wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z HWRF for Rene shows track for 95L:

https://i.postimg.cc/cLwCrphv/hwrf-p-mslp-wind-18-L-fh72-126.gif


Into Caribbean there likely.

Can someone verify whether the 95L track on Rene would be valid? I thought the hurricane models were run against a localized area near the storm itself so the tracks would only be valid for the storm it is run against.

Also, the track is highly dependent on the global model that the hurricane model is based on?


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The GFS provides the boundary and initial conditions for the HWRF. I wouldn't say it's not a valid run, but it's probably more of a HWRF/GFS hybrid result.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#18 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its like 55% carrib bound..

https://i.ibb.co/wBTgtpT/19428378-1.gif

Keep in mind that some of those OTS solutions are from another disturbance that forms in a few days and gets tangled with 95L’s ensemble members on this visual. It’s more than half that get 95L towards the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#19 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:05 pm

For those who watched Levi's video, the two biggest takeaways I saw was:

1. The potential for Rene to bounce around up and down between ridges in the open Atlantic and mess with a slower more consolidated 95L and draw it N. (12z Euro)
2. The western lobe of 95L fast tracking to the W away from the E lobe and getting underneath a building ridge that would send it towards the Caribbean regardless of Rene's antics. 12z GFS

That's what to watch for first.
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby HuracanMaster » Thu Sep 10, 2020 9:10 pm

Not liking this run one bit.Image

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