ATL: TEDDY - Models

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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#261 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:42 pm

Blinhart wrote:So is there a chance that this could turn into SuperStorm Sandy?


The Euro is Sandy moved 300 miles to the NE. I think the threat of a Canadian impact has increased but that cutoff would have to shift significantly further west for NE impacts.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#262 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:53 pm

Already verifying a bit south of the 12z Euro forecast position. If that discrepancy continues through 0z, then there might be another bump west with tonight's Euro.

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#263 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:08 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Blinhart wrote:So is there a chance that this could turn into SuperStorm Sandy?


The Euro is Sandy moved 300 miles to the NE. I think the threat of a Canadian impact has increased but that cutoff would have to shift significantly further west for NE impacts.


It's will also be late September and not late October so such would be more apt to take place at a higher latitude.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#264 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:12 pm

GFS trending west again in the long term, interestingly enough trending east in the short term
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#265 Postby shaneomac » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:14 pm

Looks rather interesting , all depends on what "left over of sally" , and that Bermuda high , 12z euro is bonkers , im in Nova Scotia so could be interesting to see unfold .
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#266 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:46 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Blinhart wrote:So is there a chance that this could turn into SuperStorm Sandy?


The Euro is Sandy moved 300 miles to the NE. I think the threat of a Canadian impact has increased but that cutoff would have to shift significantly further west for NE impacts.


Sandy on steroids in regards to top wind speed. Very unlikely that scenario comes to fruition.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#267 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:21 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:
Blinhart wrote:So is there a chance that this could turn into SuperStorm Sandy?


The Euro is Sandy moved 300 miles to the NE. I think the threat of a Canadian impact has increased but that cutoff would have to shift significantly further west for NE impacts.


Sandy on steroids in regards to top wind speed. Very unlikely that scenario comes to fruition.

The ICON keeps taking Teddy further west.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#268 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:29 pm

Fancy1001 wrote:
PavelGaborik10 wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:
The Euro is Sandy moved 300 miles to the NE. I think the threat of a Canadian impact has increased but that cutoff would have to shift significantly further west for NE impacts.


Sandy on steroids in regards to top wind speed. Very unlikely that scenario comes to fruition.

The ICON keeps taking Teddy further west.


The 12z Euro track would likely end up being the most favorable as far as him being as intense as possible upon landfall. A partial capture and eventual landfall in Nova Scotia...that would certainly be something.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#269 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:09 pm

The long-range problems with Teddy are as follows - 1) a monster ridge builds in and blocks his path straight out to sea for several days. 2) Then part of a trough tries to cut off to his West over the Eastern Seaboard with a negative tilt (more pronounce in certain models than others). It is a tough forecast to put things mildly.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#270 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:22 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:The long-range problems with Teddy are as follows - 1) a monster ridge builds in and blocks his path straight out to sea for several days. 2) Then part of a trough tries to cut off to his West over the Eastern Seaboard with a negative tilt (more pronounce in certain models than others). It is a tough forecast to put things mildly.


Yes it is . I agree. Teddy could be a very potentially challenging forecast problem later this week into the weekend.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#271 Postby NevadaFan18 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:30 pm

Once again, another SW shift from the GFS for Teddy. Still can’t fathom a possible scenario this hits NE, but things can change that time point and it would have to be a moderately significant change in the 500mb pattern.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#272 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:28 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:The long-range problems with Teddy are as follows - 1) a monster ridge builds in and blocks his path straight out to sea for several days. 2) Then part of a trough tries to cut off to his West over the Eastern Seaboard with a negative tilt (more pronounce in certain models than others). It is a tough forecast to put things mildly.


This was certainly more complex yesterday. Scenario one seems quite likely at this point in the medium range.

We'll see what happens from there but a capture of any kind may result in a landfallin NA, whether it be Atlantic Canada or the Mid Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#273 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:41 am

Euro with yet another west shift, and now makes landfall in far eastern Maine. If a piece of the trough gets left under the ridge, Maine/Newfoundland are at risk at seeing significant impacts from this.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#274 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:07 am

The Euro track would also be catastrophic for Bermuda...sends a 930-ish hurricane over them adjusting for resolution.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#275 Postby Keldeo1997 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:38 am

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#276 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:09 am

The 6zGFS is interesting at 138hrs, it’s sw of the Euro, New England, Long Island this run. Stay tuned to as the cyclone turns
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#277 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:39 am

I hope the Euro stops trending west with the cutoff otherwise the chance of a Canadian or NE impact will go way up.

Models are trending towards the Euro however so will be keeping an eye on this one. It'll be difficult for it to get as far west as ME given its current position but it's not out of the question.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#278 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:19 am

So the remnants of Sally and Teddy might end up merging around Bermuda??
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#279 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:33 am

Lol... looking like a hula hoop.

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Re: RE: Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#280 Postby shiny-pebble » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:52 am

Kazmit wrote:Lol... looking like a hula hoop.

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Looks like more eye than storm lol

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