ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#341 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:13 pm

Looks as though it’s moving towards Nova Scotia this run, a definite half jump towards the Euro, I’m thinking the GFS and Euro will be in lock step by tomorrow or Friday towards eastern New England/Nova Scotia
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#342 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:15 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Looks as though it’s moving towards Nova Scotia this run, a definite half jump towards the Euro, I’m thinking the GFS and Euro will be in lock step by tomorrow or Friday towards eastern New England/Nova Scotia


The fact that Teddy keeps dropping south/west of the track could also push the whole thing to the west too.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#343 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:19 pm

GFS phases it, but too far south and east and allows Teddy to retreat afterward.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#344 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:21 pm

Models are definitely coming into agreement on the potential for some kind of phase, the different between a Sandy-esque track for NE and/or NS or going totally out to sea is all dependent on the placement of the highs within a few hundred miles
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#345 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:24 pm

CMC also making significant changes with the evolution of the trough, looks much more in line with the 12z Euro this run:

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#346 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:31 am

Euro stays relatively the same with a southern Nova Scotia landfall/scrape.

Much weaker this time.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#347 Postby tomatkins » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:00 am

With this intensifying much more rapidly than the models anticipated and recon going out now (including even the HWRF which usually goes nuts), I wouldnt even bother with the 12Z models (which likely dont have that much of the intensification assimilated and obviously none of hte recon). I dont think we'll get a real clear picture of how THIS version of the storm reacts to the ridging and such until 0Z.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#348 Postby cp79 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:03 am

I still think there’s a 75% chance this is a fish and may impact Bermuda. Prolly 20% this clips Nova Scotia. Then 5% it lands somewhere on the Eastern Seaboard. Something to keep an eye on for sure but I don’t think it’s gonna impact the US directly in any way except in the way of very high surf along the East Coast beaches.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#349 Postby Cataegis96 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:58 am

GFS continues to trend to the ECMWF with a more amped trof over the Northeast. Still a bit east of the Euro, but GFS is likely still trying to catch up to what the Euro is showing.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#350 Postby tomatkins » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:03 am

ICON in with a full on stall and loop in the Gulf of Maine with 940s pressure before creeping into Nova Scotia. That path would definitely give Boston a good scare.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#351 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:03 am

Cataegis96 wrote:GFS continues to trend to the ECMWF with a more amped trof over the Northeast. Still a bit east of the Euro, but GFS is likely still trying to catch up to what the Euro is showing.


I'm not surprised. The Mets at NWS Caribou (local up here around Eastern Maine) suggested in their morning discussion that the GFS was underdoing the trough depth in its previous runs and would likely start correcting. Things are getting real now and a bit frightening (living right on an inlet of Passamaquoddy Bay we often experience some flooding in a moderate storm if it hits at high tide or the wind direction is right), I must admit. :eek:
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#352 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:10 am

Haven’t had a chance to look at models much today. How is Teddy’s current motion comparing to the most recent suite?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#353 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:38 am

cp79 wrote:I still think there’s a 75% chance this is a fish and may impact Bermuda. Prolly 20% this clips Nova Scotia. Then 5% it lands somewhere on the Eastern Seaboard. Something to keep an eye on for sure but I don’t think it’s gonna impact the US directly in any way except in the way of very high surf along the East Coast beaches.



I'm going with about a 10% chance of not effecting land, 60% of direct hit on Bermuda, 30% US hit, 60% Canadian hit, 30% Greenland/Iceland hit.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#354 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:54 am

The GFS continues to make some pretty noteworthy changes since this time yesterday, ridge continues to trend significantly stronger across the North Atlantic:

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#355 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:00 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:The GFS continues to make some pretty noteworthy changes since this time yesterday, ridge continues to trend significantly stronger across the North Atlantic:

https://i.imgur.com/UBnn1vw.gif


One would expect this to go through Nova Scotia with this type of setup. Odd it still keeps him offshore.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#356 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:05 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:The GFS continues to make some pretty noteworthy changes since this time yesterday, ridge continues to trend significantly stronger across the North Atlantic:

https://i.imgur.com/UBnn1vw.gif


One would expect this to go through Nova Scotia with this type of setup. Odd it still keeps him offshore.


It's a combination of a few factors on the GFS versus the Euro.

The ridge to the east is still significantly weaker on the GFS, so Teddy thus can track more eastward initially. The energy associated with the trough is not as far west as the Euro, so the phase itself occurs farther east, and the amount of energy associated with the trough is also less. That gives Teddy less of a kick to the west compared to if there was a stronger trough as Teddy rotates around it. The ICON for comparison has a significantly farther west bend due to a significantly stronger trough.

That all being said, it is clear that the GFS has been making tremendous strides toward the Euro solution since yesterday, and it would appear that it is still making corrections. Expect more changes going forward.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#357 Postby plasticup » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:58 pm

cp79 wrote:I still think there’s a 75% chance this is a fish and may impact Bermuda.


NHC says 70% chance that Bermuda sees TS winds: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... 0#contents

Not sure how you can call that a fish.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#358 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:05 pm

plasticup wrote:
cp79 wrote:I still think there’s a 75% chance this is a fish and may impact Bermuda.


NHC says 70% chance that Bermuda sees TS winds: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... 0#contents

Not sure how you can call that a fish.


If it doesn't make landfall in the U.S some people label the storm as a "fish". Heck, some people (not on here) don't even care if a storm makes landfall anyway north of Cape Hatteras because they say "it''ll be extratropical/post-tropical by then likely or on its way so it doesn't really count!". I must admit, these sort of attitudes anger and perplex me.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#359 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:09 pm

UKMET moves Teddy into extreme Eastern Nova Scotia on late Tuesday night into Wednesday at 969 mb

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#360 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:33 pm

Euro comes a tad E. Landfall in Southern Nova Scotia.

Were starting to see models come into better agreement now. Odds of a New England landfall are certainly much slimmer than they were 24 hours ago.

Maine still seems possible.
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