ATL: TEDDY - Models

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#241 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:03 pm

I forsee this may be another 100+ page thread, while it looks like it will go OTS as people have said there is a possibility it misses the phase and gets trapped by a ridge. As Teddy is predicted to be an immensely powerful hurricane, there is a nonzero chance we have a major, long-tracking hurricane bearing down on the east coast
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#242 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:28 am

All I can say is...we can't just sleep on Teddy yet.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#243 Postby Fancy1001 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:30 am

CrazyC83 wrote:All I can say is...we can't just sleep on Teddy yet.

If anything is saving us from Teddy's wrath, its Paulette.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#244 Postby Jr0d » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:37 am

aspen wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1305603782940733441

Teddy might not be 100% a Fish yet

The ICON and HWRF’s persistence on a W turn by days 4-6 is just as concerning. There’s no guarantee Teddy will remain a phish storm given the model spread and forecast uncertainty past 5 days.


I have been watching this. It appears if Teddy is a little further south and west of the forecast, it will miss the trough and be pushed West by a ridge filling in.

While I have faith in the models that continue to recurve it, I don't know how much. It is been such a weird season with the models overall doing poorly, I will.not rule it out.

Needless to say I will feel a lot better once Teddy starts taking a sharp north turn.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#245 Postby FireRat » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:08 am

Jr0d wrote:
aspen wrote:
Keldeo1997 wrote:https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1305603782940733441

Teddy might not be 100% a Fish yet

The ICON and HWRF’s persistence on a W turn by days 4-6 is just as concerning. There’s no guarantee Teddy will remain a phish storm given the model spread and forecast uncertainty past 5 days.


I have been watching this. It appears if Teddy is a little further south and west of the forecast, it will miss the trough and be pushed West by a ridge filling in.

While I have faith in the models that continue to recurve it, I don't know how much. It is been such a weird season with the models overall doing poorly, I will.not rule it out.

Needless to say I will feel a lot better once Teddy starts taking a sharp north turn.


This is something I've also been cautiously thinking and saying in the last few days, it is a more complex than usual setup out there and with Vicky and now 98L to the east, who knows how these systems could play into Teddy's future track. Also, that SW relocation and recent due west track does make me a little nervous, it could be a little wrench in the model tracks if indeed Teddy misses the trough or weakness, plus the SW motion expected out of Rene's remnants and also the west turn of Vicky's future remnants does make me a bit suspicious, it seems as if a ridge is supposed to build in (but perhaps only at lower levels, so only strong systems would go poleward?).
The intensity of Teddy might be the one thing that is making the models predict he will turn north and follow Paulette's wake. This will be a very big test for the models this season IMO.

The Atlantic is like a billiards table right now, with many moving balls and all. It's madness.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#246 Postby mlfreeman » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:42 am

CrazyC83 wrote:All I can say is...we can't just sleep on Teddy yet.

You might say "Teddy...bears watching" even?

(insert obligatory groan here)
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#247 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:47 am

mlfreeman wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:All I can say is...we can't just sleep on Teddy yet.

You might say "Teddy...bears watching" even?

(insert obligatory groan here)


Yeah...I really don't get why it had to be "Teddy." Why not "Theodore" or just "Ted"?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#248 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:48 am

Still a lot on the table about Teddy's future in the medium.term.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#249 Postby FireRat » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:00 am

SconnieCane wrote:
mlfreeman wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:All I can say is...we can't just sleep on Teddy yet.

You might say "Teddy...bears watching" even?

(insert obligatory groan here)


Yeah...I really don't get why it had to be "Teddy." Why not "Theodore" or just "Ted"?


Lol, I dunno but I suspect this was a Dog's name snuck into the list long ago.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#250 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:53 am

Phew, well the ICON throws in a plot twist, and brings a disaster to the NE coast (Mass/Maine). Not too likely I think
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#251 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:06 am

As someone from Boston I am most definitely watching this one now, that run would be devastating
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#252 Postby Nuno » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:24 am

Key thing is that models continue to trend westward. Have to see when Teddy finally begins to make the more pronounced northward turn. It seems to have moved north of due west in recent hours at least.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#253 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:33 am

Yeah, the Icon run was an eye opener into NE. And, most models now show at least a close call for Bermuda. I'm thinking we can no longer consider this a harmless sea monster, definitely a potential land threat.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#254 Postby storm4u » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:57 am

Watching here in Massachusetts.. but still a long ways off in model land if it's there in a few days we will really need to watch it..
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#255 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:40 pm

Well, the ICON slamming this into New Hampshire of all places at 950 mb (probably not 100% tropical) certainly reminds us not to take our eyes off him. Lol. Also, I feel like I'm the only one who likes the name Teddy.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#256 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:44 pm

Teddy should harmlessly go OTS though it may give Bermuda a scare.

There is a very low chance that he stays far enough sw to go underneath a building NE high. That's how you end up with those odd NE to SE Canada impact scenarios.

However I think the odds of that happening are maybe 5%
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#257 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:39 pm

The mid-latitude pattern is becoming increasingly complicated in the medium range, so a host of different solutions are now on the table.

If the Euro has one more shift west, New England may start to see significant impacts. As is, the Euro is a high impact event for locations that got hit hard by Juan in 2003, verbatim would be significantly worse than Juan.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#258 Postby tiger_deF » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:47 pm

One notable pattern shift that I am seeing is many of the models are no longer shooting Teddy off to the right as it gains in latitude, rather they have been showing Teddy taking a more northward (or even slightly westward) heading. Pretty much everything depends on the blocking high, and potential interactions with Paulette
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#259 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:54 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:The mid-latitude pattern is becoming increasingly complicated in the medium range, so a host of different solutions are now on the table.

If the Euro has one more shift west, New England may start to see significant impacts. As is, the Euro is a high impact event for locations that got hit hard by Juan in 2003, verbatim would be significantly worse than Juan.


Yeah, the 12z Euro has Teddy phasing with the trough at hour 168 and he plows right into Nova Scotia as a major. No fish run here.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#260 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:36 pm

So is there a chance that this could turn into SuperStorm Sandy?
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