ATL: TEDDY - Models

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BobHarlem
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#281 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:12 am

So about that 12z gfs... it keeps shifting west.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#282 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:17 am

12z GFS actually misses Bermuda to the west.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#283 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:24 am

Either the GFS or the Euro will be forced to cave within the next couple of days with the evolution of the potential trough off the east coast.

One thing is clear though, a launch spot west of Bermuda with a trough like the Euro shows would put New England at risk of seeing impacts. Two huge question marks at this point, but the first point looks increasingly likely with a stronger ridge being forecast.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#284 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:25 am

The main difference between the Euro and GFS is that the Euro has an mid to upper level low around the Ontario, New York area while the GFS has no such thing, that’s why the bend NNW in the Euro towards Maine while the GFS is a safe recurve
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#285 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:33 am

The GFS is the only model I can find that doesn’t bend this back NNW so either the GFS is completely wrong and will correct to the other models which looks possible since it’s on an island of its own or it could be correct and the other models come to the GFS
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#286 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:35 am

CMC is closer to leaving a significant piece of the trough behind over the east coast compared to 0z, doesn't quite fully do it though, and brings Teddy into east Newfoundland as a result.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#287 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:36 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The GFS is the only model I can find that doesn’t bend this back NNW so either the GFS is completely wrong and will correct to the other models which looks possible since it’s on an island of its own or it could be correct and the other models come to the GFS


I think anything over 3 days out should be taken with a grain of salt, since Vicky is having a hard time dying, and there is still not a lot of agreement on what all the other systems out there are going to do, and we don't know what kind of interaction he will have with these systems.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#288 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:37 am

We'll see if the Euro maintains the NW adjustment otherwise it'll just be noise.

So far the GFS does seem to be trending towards it but the blocking ridge isn't strong enough just yet.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#289 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:01 pm

So a question I have thats as relevant here as anywhere else - what kind of impact does all that smoke have on large scale weather patterns? Presumably the smoke aerosols are absorbing some of the solar radiation and heating those layers of the atmosphere. Meanwhile they are cooling layers below that. Do the models pick up on that? Is it a big enough effect to matter?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#290 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:19 pm

tomatkins wrote:So a question I have thats as relevant here as anywhere else - what kind of impact does all that smoke have on large scale weather patterns? Presumably the smoke aerosols are absorbing some of the solar radiation and heating those layers of the atmosphere. Meanwhile they are cooling layers below that. Do the models pick up on that? Is it a big enough effect to matter?


Eric Webb was actually talking about that potentially having an impact

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1306221606595899393


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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#291 Postby Jr0d » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:39 pm

Now the EURO and ICON show a potential major strike in the NE US and Canada. Seems like just yesterday the model consensus was for Teddy to go out to sea, after threatening Bermuda.

Another week, another storm to watch for a potentially significant impact.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#292 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:06 pm

GFS with Bermuda in the 120 knot eyewall

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#293 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:24 pm

If this gets west of about 68W longitude, the trough could be what sends this into the Northeast (probably New England).
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#294 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If this gets west of about 68W longitude, the trough could be what sends this into the Northeast (probably New England).


It looks like where it goes with respect to Bermuda is a good benchmark, assuming that trough is there. Just east of Bermuda will most likely lead to a track where Juan made landfall. West of there, likely closer to New England.

The Euro just double downed though with its evolution, and left behind even more energy at 12z.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#295 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:31 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If this gets west of about 68W longitude, the trough could be what sends this into the Northeast (probably New England).


It looks like where it goes with respect to Bermuda is a good benchmark, assuming that trough is there. Just east of Bermuda will most likely lead to a track where Juan made landfall. West of there, likely closer to New England.

The Euro just double downed though with its evolution, and left behind even more energy at 12z.


That seems accurate to use Bermuda as the benchmark. I don't see Teddy escaping out to sea - the ridge will be too strong and the next trough will get stuck. Almost a 1938 redux...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#296 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:33 pm

An even stronger ridge to the east, along with a more southern piece of the trough brings Teddy dangerously close to both Nova Scotia and Maine on 12z.

This should theoretically be the Euro's wheelhouse with how it handles these interactions.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#297 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:35 pm

Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#298 Postby cp79 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:44 pm

Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#299 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:45 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.


YES! I was noticing the GFS is trending towards a stronger ridge over the Northeast but then breaks down the ridge much quicker than the EURO which is its known bias. So this is definitely worth watching. It showed a 955-960 mb low in the Gulf of Maine this run! Yikes!
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#300 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:52 pm

cp79 wrote:Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.
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