ATL: TEDDY - Models

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#301 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:54 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.

If I remember correctly, it was the euro that first sniffed out sandy’s evolution as well
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#302 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:56 pm

tomatkins wrote:
cp79 wrote:Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.

You mean west?
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#303 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:56 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.

If I remember correctly, it was the euro that first sniffed out sandy’s evolution as well


Need to see more consistency from the Euro, but that's three runs in a row now where it has this evolution.

Also didn't waiver when it showed Joaquin missing the phase.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#304 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:58 pm

The pattern looks very reminiscent of the 1938 hurricane. Hard to imagine that, but then again it is 2020...
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#305 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:59 pm

tomatkins wrote:
cp79 wrote:Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.


Way west of Bermuda.

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#306 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:05 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The pattern looks very reminiscent of the 1938 hurricane. Hard to imagine that, but then again it is 2020...


Eerily similar in terms of synoptic evolution. It even has Teddy booking it at a comparable forward (N) speed between 120 and 144 hrs. If something like this were to verify, we could be looking at a landfall early next week.
Last edited by Beef Stew on Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#307 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:06 pm

A significant number of the CMC ensembles bring this near or over New England:

Image
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#308 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:08 pm

Wind field will be massive by the time it approaches any landmass. May very well resemble Sandy in terms of size.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#309 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:25 pm

The globals have pretty much been terrible in the tropics this season, but it's hard to not notice when the Euro does something crazy in the mid latitudes. That's where it shines.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#310 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:27 pm

RL3AO wrote:The globals have pretty much been terrible in the tropics this season, but it's hard to not notice when the Euro does something crazy in the mid latitudes. That's where it shines.


And it also has quite a bit of support from the new EPS. New England needs to watch this extremely closely.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#311 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:27 pm

I have a bad feeling about this one, as a certain space pirate once said.

Just in case I'll cover Teddy's progress on my extreme weather blog (for Main, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island) starting tonight -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#312 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:37 pm

Last edited by Shell Mound on Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#313 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:38 pm



That's um....some trend.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#314 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:41 pm

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#315 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:46 pm

Beef Stew wrote:
tomatkins wrote:
cp79 wrote:Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.


Way west of Bermuda.

https://i.ibb.co/gzvLcmG/Screen-Shot-2020-09-16-at-2-57-14-PM.png

Yes. West. Dammit.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#316 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:49 pm

RL3AO wrote:


That's um....some trend.

Very worriesome that eastern Maine isnt like the western outlier or anything. Basically right in the middle. Could definitely be a threat for anywhere in New England (and thats assuming it stops shifting west).
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#317 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:06 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfall near Bangor on the Euro, what an absolutely remarkable evolution.

If I remember correctly, it was the euro that first sniffed out sandy’s evolution as well


Need to see more consistency from the Euro, but that's three runs in a row now where it has this evolution.

Also didn't waiver when it showed Joaquin missing the phase.


Yeah I forgot about that with Joaquin

Though with this being 6 days out and it shifting west 3 runs in a row now I'd say that's a trend currently. If it doesn't start evening out and continue going west well that's gonna be interesting to say the least
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#318 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:10 pm

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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#319 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:20 pm

Beef Stew wrote:
tomatkins wrote:
cp79 wrote:Don’t have a link but the 12z HWRF has this going due west at the end of their run. Trough doesn’t take it out to sea and instead straightens out with ridge ala Jeanne 2004 without the loop.

That HWRF run brings it WAY east of Bermuda.


Way west of Bermuda.

https://i.ibb.co/gzvLcmG/Screen-Shot-2020-09-16-at-2-57-14-PM.png



Actually W/SW of Bermuda on this particular HWRF run.
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Models

#320 Postby cp79 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:29 pm

The Hwrf model is actually moving due west or WSW at end of run. No hint of it moving north. So something to keep an eye on.
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