ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:18 am

96L INVEST 200911 0600 25.3N 77.5W ATL 20 1013


This is the one over the Bahamas (10/50).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#2 Postby FireRat » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:49 am

It's 96, the wacky invest number. I always wonder why the 90s are used for invests? can't help but think of them as years (1996 in this case).

anyways, yeah this thing could mean business in the coming days, worthy of a rude awakening with a 2 AM invest :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#3 Postby SoupBone » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:57 am

FireRat wrote: It's 96, the wacky invest number. I always wonder why the 90s are used for invests? can't help but think of them as years (1996 in this case).

anyways, yeah this thing could mean business in the coming days, worthy of a rude awakening with a 2 AM invest :lol:



The models all disagree but no one wants a sloppy rainmaker either in Louisiana. Anyone on the Gulf Coast need some rain?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#4 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:04 am

FireRat wrote: I always wonder why the 90s are used for invests? can't help but think of them as years (1996 in this case).


Basically it's just a range to distinguish operational invests. There is actually a 0-99 range, it's broken down like this:

0-49 are TCs, STCs, or potential TCs. Basically these are the numbers we use starting with TDs in the Atlantic (TD01, TD02, TD03, etc.). In fact, the ATCF is hard coded to only go up to 49. If we were to ever get up to 49 systems in one year, we would actually start over at TD01 for number 50.

50-79 are for internal use only. NOAA will often use these before operational invests are designated to communicate among internal departments and NRL.

80-89 are for system tests. Rare, but if the NHC wants to test some new model updates/internal system changes they will use these.

90-99 are operational invests. These are further broken down by basin:

L is for Atlantic.
E is for East Pacific.
C is for Central Pacific.
W is for West Pacific.
B is for Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal).
A is for Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea).
S is for Southwest Indian Ocean/Australia (west of 135E)
P is for Australia/South Pacific (east of 135E)
Q is for South Atlantic (generally only used by NRL).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#5 Postby FireRat » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:04 am

that's cool USTropics, thanks for the info! :D

SoupBone, hopefully the models finally do well with a system this year with 96L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:15 am

USTropics wrote:
FireRat wrote:[...]


[...]
0-49 are TCs, STCs, or potential TCs. Basically these are the numbers we use starting with TDs in the Atlantic (TD01, TD02, TD03, etc.). In fact, the ATCF is hard coded to only go up to 49. If we were to ever get up to 49 systems in one year, we would actually start over at TD01 for number 50.
[...]


Interesting, I did not know that this was the standard procedure.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#7 Postby storminabox » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:57 am

This system looks like it will bring some very heavy weather tomorrow and Saturday. I’m looking forward to it. There hasn’t been a lot of action since I’ve been down here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:00 am

96L has a large moisture envelope and it is behaving like an monsoonal gyre in that it will take time for it to vertically stack and organize. The enviroment is quite conducive for development, and over the next 24 hours or so, ee should see gradual organization as it encounters more frictional components from the Florida peninsula, which should help to coalesce a surface low level center during this weekend.

Everyone in South Florida and The Keys, and later the North Central Gulf Coast definitely need to monitor 96L very closely
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#9 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:21 am

Large PV Streamer currently over this.
Development is currently limited.
GFS forecasts the PVS to abate once this gets in the E GoM.
Need to watch afternoon popup convection over FL this weekend.
If it happens, would take out the PVS earlier than what GFS is currently forecasting.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#10 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:33 am

storminabox wrote:This system looks like it will bring some very heavy weather tomorrow and Saturday. I’m looking forward to it. There hasn’t been a lot of action since I’ve been down here.
down where?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#11 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:46 am

Convection just east of Andros Island looks suspicious on radar, this might develop faster than expected.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#12 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:03 am

LL Vorticity continues to increase this morning as soon on radar with the ML vorticity starting to catch up to it near the northern end of Andros Island.
Nassau's MSLP is 4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#13 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:43 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



A surface trough of low pressure located over the northwestern
Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend from the northwestern and central Bahamas
eastward a few hundred miles over the western Atlantic. This
system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph, crossing the
Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Upper-level winds are expected to
become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#14 Postby us89 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:56 am

Curious if/when we’ll get recon with this. Looks to be organizing relatively quickly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#15 Postby xironman » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:00 am

us89 wrote:Curious if/when we’ll get recon with this. Looks to be organizing relatively quickly.


Maybe they could re-purpose the flight they had going into the GOM tomorrow to this one, as that area does not look like it is developing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#16 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:01 am

NDG wrote:LL Vorticity continues to increase this morning as soon on radar with the ML vorticity starting to catch up to it near the northern end of Andros Island.
Nassau's MSLP is 4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

https://i.imgur.com/wRsa17X.gif


NHC doesn’t think much of it right now. GOM might be a different story. Rainy weekend for SFL. :sleeping:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#17 Postby 3090 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:07 am

SFLcane wrote:
NDG wrote:LL Vorticity continues to increase this morning as soon on radar with the ML vorticity starting to catch up to it near the northern end of Andros Island.
Nassau's MSLP is 4 mb lower than 24 hrs ago.

https://i.imgur.com/wRsa17X.gif


NHC doesn’t think much of it right now. GOM might be a different story. Rainy weekend for SFL. :sleeping:


Welp, I guess S. Fla. can relax now, as it looks good for Florida, with only some rain showers. Of course those that live along the GOM shoreline would beg to differ, according to what a number of the models are starting to latch on to. So as S. Fla. people sleep, the GOM folks will be woke. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#18 Postby boca » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:14 am

Here is S Florida we dodge storms we don’t attract them.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#19 Postby tolakram » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:34 am

A few posts removed ....

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#20 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:35 am

I can see a weak surface circulation just west of Andros Island with the mid level circulation east of Andros Island.
What I can see happening like the GFS is showing the current weak circulation stalling or reforming when the ML circulation gets over the gulf stream later today/tonight.
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