ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3461 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:04 am

wx98 wrote:Center of circulation is now about 7 miles south of Gulf Shores per radar. Landfall is imminent.

it's close. i'd say around 6 or 6:30 est it will landfall.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3462 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:05 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY'S NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN
ISLAND ALABAMA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 87.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3463 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:05 am

Terrifying right now in Fort Walton Beach. I have never seen so many rotating cells coming onshore so quickly. Warning after warning with strong couplets on velocity scans.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3464 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:06 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote: it's close. i'd say around 6 or 6:30 est it will landfall.

I was think about 5 central myself. Which is about one hour. The center is now 5 to 6 miles out from the beach.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3465 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:08 am

Violent Tornado Parameter
Worst area appears to be Alligator Point, FL

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3466 Postby Stormgodess » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:11 am

So 105 mph winds?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3467 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:12 am

Stormgodess wrote:So 105 mph winds?

Looks like it...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3468 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:13 am

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 9:06Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 8:09:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 30.07N 87.77W
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg)

F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available

H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 73kts (84.0mph)
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 279° at 78kts (From the W at 89.8mph)
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 73kts (84.0mph)
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 230° at 106kts (From the SW at 122.0mph)

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SSW (208°) from the flight level center at 8:05:00Z
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3469 Postby fwbbreeze » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:14 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Terrifying right now in Fort Walton Beach. I have never seen so many rotating cells coming onshore so quickly. Warning after warning with strong couplets on velocity scans.


Almost too fast to react...I'm in Shalimar on the bay.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3470 Postby Chemmers » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:19 am

I wonder with it moving so slow, that the South side of the eye will be cat 3 when it come ashore maybe?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3471 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:20 am

Landfall will be soon at Gulf Shores. About 4 miles out now going by radar.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3472 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:21 am

Recon through 4:10am CDT:

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3473 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:23 am

Just had a weak tornado go by complete with power flashes just to my west.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3474 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:24 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Just had a weak tornado go by complete with power flashes just to my west.


There at least 5 more rotating cells coming your way within the next 20 minutes man.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3475 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:28 am

Recon coming for another pass but NHC isn’t convinced of these elevated FL winds with such comparatively lackluster SFMR data.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3476 Postby Blackwaterjoe22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:32 am

Surge now starting to get in house here on Blackwater Bay.
Gonna be a long few hours upcoming

Joe
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3477 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:33 am

Image
Splash. :eek:
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3478 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:34 am

Blackwaterjoe22 wrote:Surge now starting to get in house here on Blackwater Bay.
Gonna be a long few hours upcoming

Joe

That onshore wind is probably gonna continue for several more hours. I hope you stay safe!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3479 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:35 am


That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3480 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:37 am

ClarCari wrote:

That would support a Category 3.
I’ve been waiting for them to start dropping and showing what we’ve been trying to say about those FL winds making it down to the surface!


Yeah, but is a spot wind. Though if you add it to the data from the flight level winds then it would be a strong case.
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