ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3381 Postby storminabox » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:23 am

It’s just surreal to see a storm Blow up near landfall once again. What a ridiculous trend. Stay safe everyone. BAD situation unfolding!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3382 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:23 am

Big time lost sinking feeling watching so many landmarks I'm so familiar with being wiped out or forever changed, and this thing is just sitting and grinding. Don't know how I'm going to be able to sleep. Sick to my stomach
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3383 Postby Stormgodess » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:24 am

lovingseason2013 wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:
ClarCari wrote:They’d figure it wouldn’t be wise to call this a major until the have the final proof they need to do so, which is why it’s not on the forecast.
I believe they may expect to become a major actually, but they probably don’t wanna call it a Cat.3 and weaken before landfall or have it fluctuate too much.
If they call it a major they wanna make sure it stays one until landfall.
Eyewall contraction could have slowed some as well. Could resume strengthening shortly.


I understand that, but dang these winds are hitting people now. :(


As I sit here in my living room listening to gusts outside that take my breath away, I could care less what category they say it is. That is for records and not real time action.


I understand that, for those up and aware of whats happening. Im talking about for those that went to bed thinking she was pretty much falling apart. Im a layman. I know nothing technically. But I have lived through too many storms to count, and do know how many people respond to them based on their local weather guy's reports.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3384 Postby cfisher » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:25 am

At least there'll be some decent upwelling for a while.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3385 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:25 am

Based on the radar data, the highest flight level winds and the dropsonde, I would go with 95 kt for the current intensity.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3386 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:25 am

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
TallahasseeMan wrote:Based on the eye breaking open on radar I can’t imagine this thing will still be strengthening when the next recon flight gets there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It has been this way the entire night, with only brief bouts where it appeared closed on radar. It even appeared open when Recon confirmed it was closed. I don't think this is an issue. However, there is evidence of shear beginning to impact the western edge of the storm. Think it will take some time to get near the core though.

it takes a little more than 20-30 kts of shear to really stop these 100mph+ gulf storms. laura is an example.


I would advise using VDM messages, as radar isn't giving the entire picture. We're seeing some attenuation of the radar beam, or essentially weakening returns as the beam moves downstream. This is due to energy being lost to scattering and absorption. The further a radar beam has to move downstream, the more particles the radar beam has to pass through (in this case, the beam has to pass through the northern eyewall).
Last edited by USTropics on Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3387 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:25 am

140mph velocities at 3.9k feet.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3388 Postby PEA_RIDGE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:27 am

Back down to 968 per latest recon
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3389 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:27 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:140mph velocities at 3.9k feet.


That translates to about 95 kt at the surface. If higher up, then a case for 100 kt could be made.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3390 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:31 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:140mph velocities at 3.9k feet.


That translates to about 95 kt at the surface. If higher up, then a case for 100 kt could be made.


Any insight as to why/how NHC expects Sally to stay offshore until 1200z?
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3391 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:32 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:140mph velocities at 3.9k feet.


That translates to about 95 kt at the surface. If higher up, then a case for 100 kt could be made.

On the newest frame there appears to be an area of weaker velocities in the middle of area of highest winds. Is there any chance this is because that radar maxes out at 141, and it’s exceeding that bound?

Edit: never mind, new frame came in, looks pretty clear it was true to representation
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3392 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:32 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:140mph velocities at 3.9k feet.


That translates to about 95 kt at the surface. If higher up, then a case for 100 kt could be made.


Any insight as to why/how NHC expects Sally to stay offshore until 1200z?


Movement is north at about 2 mph (probably closer to 4 mph, but would still take 5-6 hours).
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3393 Postby Chris90 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:33 am

EquusStorm wrote:Big time lost sinking feeling watching so many landmarks I'm so familiar with being wiped out or forever changed, and this thing is just sitting and grinding. Don't know how I'm going to be able to sleep. Sick to my stomach


I’m so sorry that you are going through this. I hope your mother and brother make it through this storm safely and with minimal property losses. I hope those landmarks weather this storm admirably too and the landscape isn’t too radically changed or scarred so that way home still feels like home to you.

My thoughts go out to everyone else going through this storm too, please stay safe!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3394 Postby AlabamaDave » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:34 am

My daughter and son-in-law live on the west side of Pensacola, but they evacuated to stay with his family in Brewton, AL. Glad they got out, as there are big oaks around the house.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3395 Postby Blow_Hard » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:34 am

Looked like a little jog to the East on radar, but it's 2:30am and I'm sleepy as ##$$%%...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3396 Postby Fancy1001 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:35 am

Blow_Hard wrote:Looked like a little jog to the East on radar, but it's 2:30am and I'm sleepy as ##$$%%...

I refuse to go to bed until they upgrade it to a category three.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3397 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:37 am

Blow_Hard wrote:Looked like a little jog to the East on radar, but it's 2:30am and I'm sleepy as ##$$%%...


MORE COFFEE! I'm staying up all night I believe. More because of the rotating embedded cells that are coming onshore in the Panhandle now. Wanna be able to move quick if needed.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3398 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:37 am

Fancy1001 wrote:
Blow_Hard wrote:Looked like a little jog to the East on radar, but it's 2:30am and I'm sleepy as ##$$%%...

I refuse to go to bed until they upgrade it to a category three.

Haha, there’s a chance you could be up for another 8 months then
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3399 Postby bella_may » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:37 am

Just had a trampoline fly across the yard. Thankfully just missed the vehicles
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3400 Postby cfisher » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:38 am

Decent maintenance CB to the north while is tries to reorganize.
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