ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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hershels
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3541 Postby hershels » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:28 am

Do_For_Love wrote:Sad to see she got back up to a strongish 2. All of the landfalling storms this year seem to be strengthening on approach for whatever reason.

ABC news is reporting some areas may see 50 inches of rain, not a typo.

Some areas have already received up to 25 inches of rain, which according to the NWS in Mobile, Alabama, could be doubled given how quickly the rain has fallen in a short period of time.


https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-sal ... d=73038603


We did 52" during Harvey - don't wish that upon anyone!!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3542 Postby Frank P » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:31 am

Looking at the water gauge in Pensacola surge is approaching 6 feet, could see another 6 inches from the approaching high tide coming in later this morning.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3543 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:31 am

saved loop
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3544 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:32 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3545 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:36 am

Winds and the real heavy rain have let up a little over here near Destin. Surely the winds are going to pick up as that core gets closer.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3546 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:38 am

Going live for a quick morning damage update of our immediate surroundings. Definitely cat 3 damage.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3547 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:40 am

Water levels in Pensacola approaching 6 feet and rising.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3548 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:42 am



This has been really amazing all season. People need to stop ignoring this model. It was upgraded this year and has been unbelievably accurate with predicting storm structures and pretty close with tracks.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3549 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:47 am

eastcoastFL wrote:


This has been really amazing all season. People need to stop ignoring this model. It was upgraded this year and has been unbelievably accurate with predicting storm structures and pretty close with tracks.


Makes you wonder if Teddy really is going to have that gigantic eye in a few days (remember Typhoon Soulik two years ago?)...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3550 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:54 am

SconnieCane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:


This has been really amazing all season. People need to stop ignoring this model. It was upgraded this year and has been unbelievably accurate with predicting storm structures and pretty close with tracks.


Makes you wonder if Teddy really is going to have that gigantic eye in a few days (remember Typhoon Soulik two years ago?)...


I wouldn't bet against it but that would be crazy. I'll be paying close attention.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3551 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:03 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3552 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:06 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3553 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:08 am

I-110 in downtown Pensacola blocked by light pole

 https://twitter.com/reneebeninate/status/1306216970937827330


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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3554 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:08 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3555 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:25 am

Word in from brother and mother in Foley, significant flooding in parking lot and numerous trees down all around the apartment with many on cars. This was a bad one folks; it sounds like with the RI near landfall this could have had a bigger wind impact than Ivan did. Just a gut-wrenching situation I can't wrap my head around.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3556 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:35 am

Think some folks probably slept on the surge because it was a cat 1, but never underestimate what a stalled storm with a big wind field can do to the ocean and the way it piles water in bays and bayous and blocks water coming out of rivers getting filled by torrential rain.

Back in 1998 we sat under Georges bands for what felt like an eternity. By the time all was said and done the water on the bayou East of Pascagoula was higher than it had ever been until Katrina (in the neighborhood of 13 ft) from just a cat 2x and the parts of the community not surge flooded then flooded back from the river. It was our Katrina before Katrina. Amazing to see this in Pensacola...but also kind of amazed Ivan didn’t produce a big surge there...had forgotten that.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3557 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:35 am

Even if it didn't make it to cat 3 the damage seems to be comparable to one because it was RI'ing upon landfall.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3558 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:40 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3559 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:58 am

Personally, I think Sally will get the upgrade in reanalysis. Radar velocities of 140mph, if used with an 80% reduction, translate to 112mph. 110kt flight level winds reduce to 99kt with a 90% reduction, and the 112kt dropsonde reduces to 95-100kt winds if assumed to be a gust. In my opinion, the case for bumping sally to a 3 is a lot more solid than the case for bumping Laura to 5 ever seemed
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3560 Postby us89 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:08 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:Personally, I think Sally will get the upgrade in reanalysis. Radar velocities of 140mph, if used with an 80% reduction, translate to 112mph. 110kt flight level winds reduce to 99kt with a 90% reduction, and the 112kt dropsonde reduces to 95-100kt winds if assumed to be a gust. In my opinion, the case for bumping sally to a 3 is a lot more solid than the case for bumping Laura to 5 ever seemed


Agreed. In Sally's case, it seems the only thing holding NHC back from classifying it as a major in real time was the SFMR data - and as has been mentioned here before, that can be less reliable in shallower water. And even if those dropsondes measured gusts, they indicated that the upper-level winds were being mixed down to the surface quite well.

Laura will probably get a bump to 135 kt, but I don't see it being reanalyzed as 140 kt. If I remember right, the only evidence to upgrade Laura was the radar velocity data and maybe a dropsonde or two. FL winds and SFMR collected would not have supported a cat 5.
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