ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3561 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:30 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3562 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:33 am


What’s the lowest MLSP reported on land thus far? NHC officially estimated 965 mb at landfall, but this indicates it may have been a bit higher.

Based on the last reconnaissance fix, I think Sally weakened a bit from 90 kt/965 mb to 85 kt/969 mb at landfall. Radar corroborates this, too.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3563 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:45 am

Going to go out on a limb and say this might worse than Ivan too In some regards. The prolonged stress on buildings may do more to inland structures than a slightly stronger storm did in an hour or so of peak wind. Ivan was also a wet storm in the area with 15 inch totals along the FL state line, bUt nothing like this. The bigger differences are this lasted 10 times longer and it was strengthening at landfall so probably had more gusts mix down. The tough part to gauge yet is whether worst wind will be confined to the beach area of Baldwin...Ivan did some extensive wind damage with its eye wall over city of Pensacola... trade off of a faster storm is the worst wind mixes further inland.

My guess is damage will be more purely from the water tho. Most of those roofs in the area sustained damage in Ivan and were hopefully in good shape. Tree damage in Ivan was terrible but they had no had anything of that caliber in many years so the area was prime for pruning back then
Last edited by PTPatrick on Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3564 Postby edu2703 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:46 am

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3565 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:55 am

Kazmit wrote:Even if it didn't make it to cat 3 the damage seems to be comparable to one because it was RI'ing upon landfall.


The surge on Pensacola Beach was catastrophic from Ivan. From what I've seen so far Sally doesn't even come close.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3566 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:09 am

Another interesting post-season analysis report is on the way for this storm with a measured peak FL wind of 110 KT about an hour before the storm officially made landfall. That supports 99 KT at the surface, but how much of those winds actually mixed down to the surface will be worth analyzing post-season.

Looks like it made landfall at near or at peak intensity.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3567 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:11 am

PTrackerLA wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Even if it didn't make it to cat 3 the damage seems to be comparable to one because it was RI'ing upon landfall.


The surge on Pensacola Beach was catastrophic from Ivan. From what I've seen so far Sally doesn't even come close.

Highest surge for Sally would be around Perdido Key, which I've yet to see anything out of. (obviously Ivan's surge was higher as it was a long track, high-end storm with a big fetch. Still, the surge footage we're seeing right now isn't representative of peak.)
Last edited by Ubuntwo on Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3568 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:14 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Even if it didn't make it to cat 3 the damage seems to be comparable to one because it was RI'ing upon landfall.


The surge on Pensacola Beach was catastrophic from Ivan. From what I've seen so far Sally doesn't even come close.

Highest surge for Sally would be around Perdido Key, which I've yet to see anything out of.

Duration is also a factor. Much longer than fast moving Ivan
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3569 Postby PTPatrick » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:23 am

Ubuntwo wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Even if it didn't make it to cat 3 the damage seems to be comparable to one because it was RI'ing upon landfall.


The surge on Pensacola Beach was catastrophic from Ivan. From what I've seen so far Sally doesn't even come close.

Highest surge for Sally would be around Perdido Key, which I've yet to see anything out of. (obviously Ivan's surge was higher as it was a long track, high-end storm with a big fetch. Still, the surge footage we're seeing right now isn't representative of peak.)


Was going by comments about Pensacola downtown flooding...but that makes sense. Downtown and beach are different. I didn’t think this could have beat a long track prior cat 4 surge. so is it Just the bay that’s higher or did I just misunderstand something?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3570 Postby Beef Stew » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:25 am

Given the pace at which Sally's crawling forward and the absurd rainfall rates, the impact from inland flooding will almost definitely be greater than it was in Ivan.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3571 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:25 am

Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 87.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Dauphin Island Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3572 Postby us89 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:25 am

We're getting our first rain band already up in Atlanta. So far it's all rain and no wind, but the NWS office up here said they'd likely be issuing a wind advisory this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3573 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:27 am

Beef Stew wrote:Given the pace at which Sally's crawling forward and the absurd rainfall rates, the impact from inland flooding will almost definitely be greater than it was in Ivan.

And there’s still hours of rain to go for the panhandle. Those firehose feeder bands won’t stop even if the storm is on land.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3574 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:32 am

Sally is a slow moving disaster. Once the surge wanes the major inland river flooding will begin and already has in many instances.

Several 35-40"+ totals seem likely. Also very intense feeder bands coming into the panhandle, we saw that with Harvey.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3575 Postby EquusStorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:32 am

Mom's apartment complex 15 minutes inland from Gulf Shores in Foley; about half the trees down with multiple cars damaged. Absolutely surreal.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3576 Postby Stormgodess » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:50 am

EquusStorm wrote:Word in from brother and mother in Foley, significant flooding in parking lot and numerous trees down all around the apartment with many on cars. This was a bad one folks; it sounds like with the RI near landfall this could have had a bigger wind impact than Ivan did. Just a gut-wrenching situation I can't wrap my head around.


So sorry to hear of the damage, :( but very grateful to hear that they are safe.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3577 Postby Stormgodess » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:54 am

hurricaneCW wrote:Sally is a slow moving disaster. Once the surge wanes the major inland river flooding will begin and already has in many instances.

Several 35-40"+ totals seem likely. Also very intense feeder bands coming into the panhandle, we saw that with Harvey.


And If she stays on her track the river flooding inland for hundreds of miles, will continue to drain down into the already flooded coastal areas. This is going to be a disaster that will be playing out for weeks
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3578 Postby LowerAlabamaTider » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:01 am

Praying for everyone in the path of Sally. She’s been a royal %&@$/@!!!

We’ve got 3 trees down, the 3/4 acre yard is covered with debris, and going to take a long time to clean up, no power, and about 60 ft of gutter ripped off front of house. Still blowing very hard. I know it could be worse, and has been for many, but it’s very bad here in Mobile for sure!!!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3579 Postby mpic » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:06 am

Have friends on 75 in Atlanta going to Ft. Myers. Is it safe?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Hurricane - Discussion

#3580 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:07 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:Another interesting post-season analysis report is on the way for this storm with a measured peak FL wind of 110 KT about an hour before the storm officially made landfall. That supports 99 KT at the surface, but how much of those winds actually mixed down to the surface will be worth analyzing post-season.

Looks like it made landfall at near or at peak intensity.


I can tell you a lot of the winds mixed down...
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