ATL: SALLY - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3219
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:

ATL: SALLY - Models

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:19 am

Models for the Bahamas system only.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8749
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#2 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:28 am

Globals indicating spinup in the E GoM anywhere from Saturday afternoon to early Monday.

Image

Image

Image
0 likes   

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8749
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#3 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:57 am

GFS, Monday Morning.
Looks like a good LL vort under an ARWB.
Could spin up more than what current models are forecasting.
Short time frame, so high probability this setup is valid.
Watch the FL convection this weekend.
Could lead to some very rapid intensification in the E GoM if the PVS gets taken out early.

Image

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12768
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#4 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:49 am

06z SHIPS brings it up to a hurricane, with a light shear & moist environment.

Image
0 likes   

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2229
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#5 Postby Frank P » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:38 am

0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12768
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#6 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:49 am

Both CMC and ICON still not developing this system, they are both lost doing a Fujiwhara between 96L and the vorticity in the GOM.
To some effect the Euro is also doing a Fujiwhara between the two systems, especially its ensembles.
Too bad NOAA is still having problems with its server and we can't see the HWRF run on 96L, it will be the only model to trust on intensity. IMO.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8727
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:02 am

NDG wrote:Both CMC and ICON still not developing this system, they are both lost doing a Fujiwhara between 96L and the vorticity in the GOM.
To some effect the Euro is also doing a Fujiwhara between the two systems, especially its ensembles.
Too bad NOAA is still having problems with its server and we can't see the HWRF run on 96L, it will be the only model to trust on intensity. IMO.


NDG, I am getting a bad vibe with this aspect related to your point above. My weather senses are telling me in my gut that 96L is going to end up being a considerably stronger cyclone than what the globals have shown to this point.

I did notice early this morning up working and saw SHIPS having 96L becoming a hurricane down the road, not surprising given the very good low shear and very moist environment it is in currently.
3 likes   
Monitoring the 2020 Meteorological Fall Season and North Atlantic Hurricane Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12768
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#8 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:57 am

06z Euro ensembles continue to show more support for development from previous runs with some now showing to become a moderate to strong TS, they also keep trending more offshore closer to the GFS runs than previous two runs, closer to the GFS runs.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 12768
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#9 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:30 am

12z SHIPS is still persistent with 96L becoming a hurricane before landfall, if anything a little stronger than previous 06z run with very light shear when it enters the GOM.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#10 Postby N2FSU » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:32 am

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22270
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#11 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:39 am

Saved 12Z GFS animation:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 10603
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#12 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:56 am

Cmc brings into MobileImage

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 748
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: Boca Raton, FL and Destin, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#13 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:37 pm

Image HWRF run on 96L
1 likes   
The above is my opinion and not an official forecast. Consult the NHC for official forecasts.

Erin 1995, Opal 1995, Danny 1997, Earl 1998, Georges 1998, Ivan 2004, Dennis 2005, Michael 2018, Sally 2020

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22270
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#14 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:49 pm

Euro initialized:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22270
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#15 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:53 pm

Euro 24 hours:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22270
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#16 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:01 pm

Euro 48 hours:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22270
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#17 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:07 pm

Euro 72 hours much more defined:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 10603
Age: 33
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#18 Postby Ivanhater » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:09 pm

Euro playing catch up and strenghthening headed for the northern gulf coast
0 likes   
Michael

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2598
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#19 Postby toad strangler » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:10 pm

Solid chance of 96L becoming at least a depression over the peninsula.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 22270
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#20 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:15 pm

Euro 96 hours crawling along the coast:

Image
1 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cyclenall and 1 guest