ATL: SALLY - Models

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HurryKane
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#621 Postby HurryKane » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:42 pm

NDG wrote:There has been one experimental hurricane model, that has been persistent since at least Friday night on landfall near Mobile Bay 30 miles east or west, and has been persistent ever since then on every run even when the GFS and Euro shifted back towards SE LA on Saturday it stuck to its guns, its latest 0z track did shift a little to the west now calling for landfall right through Mobile.


Which one?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#622 Postby FixySLN » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:45 pm

bella_may wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
MidnightRain wrote:Based on a single run? This is setting up to be pretty bad for Mobile actually.


Yeah, no one should be resting easy

Feel a little better here in Mississippi though


Don't..

HWRF and HMON initialized 20mb too strong

Models are all over the place. MS/AL state line is still the biggest probability in my UNPROFESSIONAL opinion. There's a lot more time over water. Don't let your guard down please.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#623 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:45 pm

Here you go tider. 00z HRRR (sometimes excellent, sometimes terrible). Through 30 hours it’s moved southwest of you piling up the water. Also notable on the HRRR so far is that the pressure stabilizes for a while then is dropping heading toward landfall. 974 out to 30h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91500&fh=0

Edit moving toward Pensacola Beach at 33h, 972. It jumps centers so it’s hard to get motion sometimes.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#624 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:54 pm

FixySLN wrote:
bella_may wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:
Yeah, no one should be resting easy

Feel a little better here in Mississippi though


Don't..

HWRF and HMON initialized 20mb too strong

Models are all over the place. MS/AL state line is still the biggest probability in my UNPROFESSIONAL opinion. There's a lot more time over water. Don't let your guard down please.

Jim Cantore is in Pascagoula so you might be right. Storms always follow him lol
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#625 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:55 pm

HurryKane wrote:
NDG wrote:There has been one experimental hurricane model, that has been persistent since at least Friday night on landfall near Mobile Bay 30 miles east or west, and has been persistent ever since then on every run even when the GFS and Euro shifted back towards SE LA on Saturday it stuck to its guns, its latest 0z track did shift a little to the west now calling for landfall right through Mobile.


Which one?


Is my little secret, but the NHC mentioned it a couple of nights ago in their discussion :D
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#626 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:56 pm

HRRR 00z stopped on TT at 33 so we can’t see its landfall though it would almost surely be in Florida. The 01z is running and only goes out 18. :/
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#627 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:05 pm

NAMs look to move nw slowly then north and NNE toward AL/FL. Still need some plots to come in.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#628 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:07 pm

Steve wrote:Here you go tider. 00z HRRR (sometimes excellent, sometimes terrible). Through 30 hours it’s moved southwest of you piling up the water. Also notable on the HRRR so far is that the pressure stabilizes for a while then is dropping heading toward landfall. 974 out to 30h.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91500&fh=0

Edit moving toward Pensacola Beach at 33h, 972. It jumps centers so it’s hard to get motion sometimes.


It’s hard to believe that 30 hours from now it’s going to be over water still with it’s current proximity to land. That HRRR run just looks like one big cyclonic loop for nearly 2 days straight. That is a terrible scenario. Hwrf isn’t much better as far as how long it just sits there. Unreal
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#629 Postby eastcoastFL » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:08 pm

NDG wrote:
HurryKane wrote:
NDG wrote:There has been one experimental hurricane model, that has been persistent since at least Friday night on landfall near Mobile Bay 30 miles east or west, and has been persistent ever since then on every run even when the GFS and Euro shifted back towards SE LA on Saturday it stuck to its guns, its latest 0z track did shift a little to the west now calling for landfall right through Mobile.


Which one?


Is my little secret, but the NHC mentioned it a couple of nights ago in their discussion :D


That’s not fair NDG...Now I gotta go back through a dozen advisories or I won’t be able to sleep!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#630 Postby DestinHurricane » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:12 pm

HRRR with a far eastern solution. Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#631 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:15 pm

Notice the 972.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#632 Postby USTropics » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:17 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
NDG wrote:
HurryKane wrote:
Which one?


Is my little secret, but the NHC mentioned it a couple of nights ago in their discussion :D


That’s not fair NDG...Now I gotta go back through a dozen advisories or I won’t be able to sleep!


Got to be the COAMPS-TC. Forecast from the 12th:
Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#633 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:18 pm

NAM 3km is going haywire. 951 in 24 hours.

Beast mode or the NAM?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1500&fh=25
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#634 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:22 pm

945mb at 28 hours. Pressure is getting down there on the NAM 3km. What upwelling?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1500&fh=28

Apologies for the links instead of photos. I’m on mobile.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#635 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:25 pm

So far, all of the 0z mesoscale models are coming in east of Mobile. I think the odds of this never impacting Mississippi much at all are steadily increasing. Will obviously wait for 0z models to feel more confident, but I'm thinking I've already seen my one shower from Sally (about an hour ago). I think our Mississippi shield is still holding strong.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#636 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:25 pm

LowerAlabamaTider wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
LowerAlabamaTider wrote:
At this rate I'll be able to sleep tonight much better. Mobile may once again dodge the bullet. My how fast things change.

What? Mobile should be preparing for a direct hit from a cat 2 or 3.


It seems like so many times through the years when one has been projected to hit Mobile they go east of us by just a tad.


The low areas on the NGOM pretty much have to respect anything above a strong TS... When it comes to the core winds, in this case 100 mph, I think of it as around a 30 mile circle of destruction. Those last minute wobbles make all the difference and the chances of being in that 30 mile circle are pretty low even if you are in the warning area.

But you have to be ready if in the warning area.. Have to respect it...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#637 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:28 pm

MississippiWx wrote:So far, all of the 0z mesoscale models are coming in east of Mobile. I think the odds of this never impacting Mississippi much at all are steadily increasing. Will obviously wait for 0z models to feel more confident, but I'm thinking I've already seen my one shower from Sally (about an hour ago). I think our Mississippi shield is still holding strong.


Not sure it usually usually good to rely on nam and hrrr with tropical cyclones but maybe I’m wrong. In some scenarios it may be worth it, but not sure they would display any extra skill in stall situation? More of a Question than a statement, maybe a pro can way in but I think most pros are kinda over the models at this point :D
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#638 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:29 pm

NAM 12km looks to be landfalling Baldwin County at 6am Wednesday at 985.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1500&fh=35
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#639 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:30 pm

PTPatrick wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:So far, all of the 0z mesoscale models are coming in east of Mobile. I think the odds of this never impacting Mississippi much at all are steadily increasing. Will obviously wait for 0z models to feel more confident, but I'm thinking I've already seen my one shower from Sally (about an hour ago). I think our Mississippi shield is still holding strong.


Not sure it usually usually good to rely on nam and hrrr with tropical cyclones but maybe I’m wrong. In some scenarios it may be worth it, but not sure they would display any extra skill in stall situation? More of a Question than a statement, maybe a pro can way in but I think most pros are kinda over the models at this point :D


Definitely not calling it game over until the fat lady sings, but I feel like a trend is set.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#640 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:35 pm

^^. Sometimes good, often useless. But you can still pick up important things from them.

FWIW, NAM 3km hits the AL coast at 953mb a little earlier than than the 12km. Here’s the IR depiction. If it’s at all close, medium sized storm with a tight core.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1500&fh=33
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