ATL: SALLY - Models

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MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#641 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:57 pm

One possible way this could sneak farther west is if it remains weaker. Sally is currently about 15-20mb weaker than the HWRF predicted it would be at this time. It is also a little south of the HWRF's prediction from 18z. The GFS/GFS-Para ensembles say it all-a weaker storm would continue on towards Eastern Louisiana before turning north. I think this is not likely, but still a possibility if Sally isn't able to overcome the shear impacting it currently.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#642 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:00 pm

What in the world is up with the GFS lol
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#643 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:09 pm

New ICON basically keeps it stationary for almost
2 days before it moves NE on Wed. We all know that it
not going to happen. Sometimes you just have to
shake your head,
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#644 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:12 pm

Stormcenter wrote:New ICON basically keeps it stationary for almost
2 days before it moves NE on Wed. We all know that it
not going to happen. Sometimes you just have to
shake your head,


The Euro shows it too. Not so far-fetched. I think it's all going to depend on Sally's strength.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#645 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:12 pm

bella_may wrote:What in the world is up with the GFS lol


GFS is still possible, according to the NHC. I don't think it's going to verify, but still possible.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#646 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:13 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
bella_may wrote:What in the world is up with the GFS lol


GFS is still possible, according to the NHC. I don't think it's going to verify, but still possible.

With the GFS ensembles coming in farther west do you think they’ll shift the tvcn west a little?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#647 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:14 pm

USTropics wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
NDG wrote:
Is my little secret, but the NHC mentioned it a couple of nights ago in their discussion :D


That’s not fair NDG...Now I gotta go back through a dozen advisories or I won’t be able to sleep!


Got to be the COAMPS-TC. Forecast from the 12th:
https://i.imgur.com/wYdKm1k.gif


Bingo!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#648 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:16 pm

Stormcenter wrote:New ICON basically keeps it stationary for almost
2 days before it moves NE on Wed. We all know that it
not going to happen. Sometimes you just have to
shake your head,


Dorian would like to say a few words.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#649 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:17 pm

Yeah, ICON hits around Mobile Bay late Wed morning at 978.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#650 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:23 pm

NHC still showing over ten inches of rain for SE Mississippi. Even with the center going east (currently)
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#651 Postby DestinHurricane » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:36 pm

GFS coming in farther east.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#652 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:40 pm

In the interest of model watching, gfs finally coming in a bit eastward again. Not sure what happened on 18z, but looks like it will go to state line.
In practice hmon and Hwrf have been a tad East of gfs, so expect they will follow with Mobile county landfalls

Edit: cmc into Biloxi at 36 hrs so not buying the full on stall...but it’s pretty weak on that run, and well, it’s the Canadian...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#653 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:16 pm

The 0z UKMET is even more east into the FL Panhandle

Image


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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#654 Postby SETXstorms » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:22 pm

cmc has something churning in the GOM last frame :eek:
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#655 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:24 pm

Hmon rolling...its def not as strong as hmon had it at this time from 18..initial 0zhmon is still drifting west.

At 12 hrs a bit East and slower but way weaker Than previous run. 982 mb instead of 960s...hmon not seeing strengthening thru tonight.

One thing to note, by 18 it’s deepening a tad but hanging around 70 knot. But it has a huge eye on the simulated radar compared to earlier run.

By 24 it’s deepening again and up to 90 knots heading to Mobile county

30 hrs, 970 mb hitting central dauphin island, 90 knots
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#656 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:40 pm

Hwrf Starting. similar to hmon...struggling a bit strength wise overnight.

By 24 heads toward Jackson county again but further west. 970 mb. Maybe west of gfs even. Moves faster so think that’s where it’s getting the Jackson county hit. Again seems to boil down to speed
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#657 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:48 pm

I like that EEMN model plot, looks like a 4 year old scribble.

0z Hmon would be something else, seeing it intensify just before LF by hour 30.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#658 Postby bella_may » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:52 pm

HWRF says not so fast! Decent west shift this run
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#659 Postby La Breeze » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:57 pm

SETXstorms wrote:cmc has something churning in the GOM last frame :eek:

?? Are you referring to the blob off of Mexico in the BOC or something else?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#660 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:59 pm

So at 30 hrs hmon is offshore still off Mobile, Hwrf is Hitting Biloxi, and gfs is nearing landfall in Pascagoula. Def makes Hwrf is the fastEst of the 3...Gfs in the middle.
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