ATL: SALLY - Models

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FixySLN
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#661 Postby FixySLN » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:08 am

It's a crap shoot. Fixin' to print out the gulf and start tossing darts at it.

NHC has done a really good job sticking to their guns with the small changes rather than going all-in east or west. Conservative changes paying off.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#662 Postby Stormgodess » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:21 am

FixySLN wrote:It's a crap shoot. Fixin' to print out the gulf and start tossing darts at it.

NHC has done a really good job sticking to their guns with the small changes rather than going all-in east or west. Conservative changes paying off.


Scary to be in Louisiana and watching her spin West of the forecast though :(
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#663 Postby FixySLN » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:24 am

Stormgodess wrote:
FixySLN wrote:It's a crap shoot. Fixin' to print out the gulf and start tossing darts at it.

NHC has done a really good job sticking to their guns with the small changes rather than going all-in east or west. Conservative changes paying off.


Scary to be in Louisiana and watching her spin West of the forecast though :(


Bunch of people on the Gulf biting their nails right now. Just be prepared, regardless.
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caneman
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#664 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:31 am

Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#665 Postby bella_may » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:09 am

00Z euro looks to have shifted landfall slightly west. But it’s really hard to tell with only 24 hour frames.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#666 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:16 am

bella_may wrote:00Z euro looks to have shifted landfall slightly west. But it’s really hard to tell with only 24 hour frames.


Euro is really slow. Still essentially offshore at 48 hours.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#667 Postby bella_may » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:18 am

Nam shifted back west to mobile
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#668 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:46 am

06z GFS into Mobile Bay at 970mb
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#669 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:55 am

caneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
its not crazy, happened before
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#670 Postby bella_may » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:48 am

06z HWRF looks like a game of tug a war :double:
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#671 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:10 am

HWRF over Dauphin Island

HMON right up the spine of Mobile Bay
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#672 Postby Storm Battered » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:39 am

jlauderdal wrote:
caneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
its not crazy, happened before


Ivan, I remember.
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caneman
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#673 Postby caneman » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:48 am

Storm Battered wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
caneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
its not crazy, happened before


Ivan, I remember.


I know its happened before but its not that common. The question was... Does anyone see that happening in this case.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#674 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:30 am

caneman wrote:
Storm Battered wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:its not crazy, happened before


Ivan, I remember.


I know its happened before but its not that common. The question was... Does anyone see that happening in this case.


Occasional runs of the hurricane models showed decoupling with a low center migrating back. It’s possible, but I don’t have an opinion on it.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#675 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:38 am

Image
Image

12z Guidance... Intensity guidance is dropping most now low end Cat 1, some good news hopefully... NHC track now on the W side of the guidance...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#676 Postby lovingseason2013 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:20 am

Storm Battered wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
caneman wrote:Looking down range. Some of the models have it exiting into the Atlantic and dropping South. Anyone think it would survive for another threat to Florida? That would be crazy!
its not crazy, happened before


Ivan, I remember.

I was literally hit by Ivan 3 times!! Pensacola, Naples and again up in the Panhandle as I was roaming homeless after the 1st hit.
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pcolaman
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#677 Postby pcolaman » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:31 am

lovingseason2013 wrote:
Storm Battered wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:its not crazy, happened before


Ivan, I remember.

I was literally hit by Ivan 3 times!! Pensacola, Naples and again up in the Panhandle as I was roaming homeless after the 1st hit.



Ivan made landfall Sept 16th 2004 So 16 yrs to the date around the same place. Crazy!
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DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#678 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:21 am

12Z GFS east and stronger. Image
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The above is my opinion and not an official forecast. Consult the NHC for official forecasts.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#679 Postby LowerAlabamaTider » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:30 am



Just saw that myself. Would not be good for us here in Mobile, Baldwin County, and the Western Panhandle
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#680 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:15 pm

Looks like CMC is following GFS taking Sally right up Mobile Bay

Icon stalls south of Dauphin Island then moves NNE and makes landfall around Navarre
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