ATL: SALLY - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#681 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:42 pm

bella_may wrote:NHC still showing over ten inches of rain for SE Mississippi. Even with the center going east (currently)


Believe it, I was in Key West on Saturday and @12+” fell in one day and we were 100+ miles from LLC...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#682 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:08 pm

Does anyone with high res Euro know where Sally made landfall and what MSLP on the 12z run?
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#683 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:10 pm

12z Euro sticking to a slower timing for landfall, strengthens it before making landfall.

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#684 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:36 pm

Yea, 12z ECM showing wind gusts approaching 100mph over P'Cola and eastward 60mph Destin to 80mph near Navarre. Not good.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#685 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:38 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro sticking to a slower timing for landfall, strengthens it before making landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Yrei9IZ.gif


After all is said and done, it may be an official FL landfall... Fortunately the 18z intensity guidance is barely hanging on to a Cat 1, maybe be a TS... Crazy storm...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#686 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:39 pm

Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro sticking to a slower timing for landfall, strengthens it before making landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Yrei9IZ.gif


After all is said and done, it may be an official FL landfall... Fortunately the 18z intensity guidance is barely hanging on to a Cat 1, maybe be a TS... Crazy storm...


All of the latest models have cat 2.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#687 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:40 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:Yea, 12z ECM showing wind gusts approaching 100mph over P'Cola and eastward 60mph Destin to 80mph near Navarre. Not good.


Panhandle will bounce back quick with that wind... Hopefully the “Historic Rainfall” continues to stay offshore and doesn’t live up to the prediction...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#688 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:41 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro sticking to a slower timing for landfall, strengthens it before making landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Yrei9IZ.gif


After all is said and done, it may be an official FL landfall... Fortunately the 18z intensity guidance is barely hanging on to a Cat 1, maybe be a TS... Crazy storm...


All of the latest models have cat 2.


18z Intensity Guidance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Notice the farther E Ukmet’s intensity drops the fastest.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#689 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:46 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Yea, 12z ECM showing wind gusts approaching 100mph over P'Cola and eastward 60mph Destin to 80mph near Navarre. Not good.


Panhandle will bounce back quick with that wind... Hopefully the “Historic Rainfall” continues to stay offshore and doesn’t live up to the prediction...



Fortunately that is still well west Hurricane Michael affected areas...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#690 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:46 pm

Blown Away wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
After all is said and done, it may be an official FL landfall... Fortunately the 18z intensity guidance is barely hanging on to a Cat 1, maybe be a TS... Crazy storm...


All of the latest models have cat 2.


18z Intensity Guidance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Notice the farther E Ukmet’s intensity drops the fastest.


That's just the statistical guidance. We'll see what the actual models show. The statistical had similar for 12Z but the real models all show cat 2.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#691 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:49 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
All of the latest models have cat 2.


18z Intensity Guidance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Notice the farther E Ukmet’s intensity drops the fastest.


That's just the statistical guidance. We'll see what the actual models show. The statistical had similar for 12Z but the real models all show cat 2.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_12z.png
18z intensity, decent drop off from 12z, so this run the models are trending down. Euro/GFS intensity predictions have not been stellar this season IMO.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#692 Postby Jonny » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:54 pm

Oops...wrong thread. :oops:
Last edited by Jonny on Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#693 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:55 pm

Blown Away wrote:
DestinHurricane wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
18z Intensity Guidance
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Notice the farther E Ukmet’s intensity drops the fastest.


That's just the statistical guidance. We'll see what the actual models show. The statistical had similar for 12Z but the real models all show cat 2.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... ty_12z.png
18z intensity, decent drop off from 12z, so this run the models are trending down. Euro/GFS intensity predictions have not been stellar this season IMO.


I'm not trying to minimize the storm's expected effects, but the Euro tends to overdo land station winds. 100 mph highest gusts on land at Pensacola per 12Z Euro? I bet the highest measured gust will end up closer to 70-80, which is strong enough. We'll see.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#694 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:23 pm

Recon image through 2:01pm CDT with 12Z Euro track, the blue line. Official NHC track from 10am CDT is the white line.

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#695 Postby NDG » Tue Sep 15, 2020 2:29 pm

Blown Away wrote:
NDG wrote:12z Euro sticking to a slower timing for landfall, strengthens it before making landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Yrei9IZ.gif


After all is said and done, it may be an official FL landfall... Fortunately the 18z intensity guidance is barely hanging on to a Cat 1, maybe be a TS... Crazy storm...


Intensity guidance in the short range before landfall are the worst to go go by right before landfall, most times.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#696 Postby LowerAlabamaTider » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:14 pm

One thing to keep in mind . . With a storm barely moving two miles an hour ( slower than a toddler walks ) any change in direction is very small. At that speed if you turn to the right what do you move? 2 FT? Who knows . . . Just thinking out loud.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#697 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:46 pm

18z GFS looks like FL/Bama State line stronger around 975mb

18z Icon same as 12z, over Pensacola around 965mb, probably too low but almost identical track as the 12z
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#698 Postby SETXstorms » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:20 pm

La Breeze wrote:
SETXstorms wrote:cmc has something churning in the GOM last frame :eek:

?? Are you referring to the blob off of Mexico in the BOC or something else?


yes BOC and headed towards texas.. was seeing this and now its showing up more in models
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#699 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:32 pm

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#700 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:38 pm



Be nice if someone could post the 18z Euro when it runs...just curious to see what it'll show although now it's pretty much academic.
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