ATL: SALLY - Models

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#701 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:43 pm

What is the likely hood that she regenerates whenever/wherever she comes off shore????
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#702 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:03 pm

Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise. :roll:

18z GFS from 5 days ago. :darrow:

Image

12z Euro from 5 days ago. :darrow:

Image
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#703 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:16 pm

Anybody have the 18z Euro results? Still sliding off to the NE at PCola?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#704 Postby Blow_Hard » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:21 pm

ronjon wrote:Anybody have the 18z Euro results? Still sliding off to the NE at PCola?



I think someone posted earlier the 18z Euro actually came in around Gulf Shores approx. 5:00am in the morning but I could be wrong...
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#705 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:18 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise. :roll:

18z GFS from 5 days ago. :darrow:

https://i.imgur.com/JFGdkhS.png

12z Euro from 5 days ago. :darrow:

https://i.imgur.com/DBx0OVi.png


I disagree with this statement. What I see is both models showing a defined low pressure system in the northern Gulf.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#706 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:41 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise. :roll:

18z GFS from 5 days ago. :darrow:

https://i.imgur.com/JFGdkhS.png

12z Euro from 5 days ago. :darrow:

https://i.imgur.com/DBx0OVi.png


I disagree with this statement. What I see is both models showing a defined low pressure system in the northern Gulf.

A defined low pressure system yes, bur definitely not a strengthening Cat.2 Hurricane. So they busted big time!
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#707 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:48 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise. :roll:

18z GFS from 5 days ago. :darrow:

https://i.imgur.com/JFGdkhS.png

12z Euro from 5 days ago. :darrow:

https://i.imgur.com/DBx0OVi.png


I disagree with this statement. What I see is both models showing a defined low pressure system in the northern Gulf.

A defined low pressure system yes, bur definitely not a strengthening Cat.2 Hurricane. So they busted big time!


Globals usually don't show big defined storms ahead of time as there's too many variables for that kind of detail. Intensity estimates have always been bad so I'm not sure what you're expecting.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#708 Postby bella_may » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:15 pm

Did anyone see the new euro run? Has an area developing close to the Texas/Mexico border and then takes it into New Orleans as a CAT 1 :double:
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models

#709 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:56 am

I have been dismissing the ICON model since it came out, but decided to compare it with the GFS and Euro at 5 days out from landfall. Still had the Friday 12Z model runs available so I saved them.

ICON
Image

EURO
Image

GFS
Image

Unfortunately the GFS para is not available for that timeframe.
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