ATL: SALLY - Models
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
What is the likely hood that she regenerates whenever/wherever she comes off shore????
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise. 
18z GFS from 5 days ago.
12z Euro from 5 days ago.
18z GFS from 5 days ago.
12z Euro from 5 days ago.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Anybody have the 18z Euro results? Still sliding off to the NE at PCola?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
ronjon wrote:Anybody have the 18z Euro results? Still sliding off to the NE at PCola?
I think someone posted earlier the 18z Euro actually came in around Gulf Shores approx. 5:00am in the morning but I could be wrong...
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GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise.
18z GFS from 5 days ago.
https://i.imgur.com/JFGdkhS.png
12z Euro from 5 days ago.
https://i.imgur.com/DBx0OVi.png
I disagree with this statement. What I see is both models showing a defined low pressure system in the northern Gulf.
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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
GeneratorPower wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise.
18z GFS from 5 days ago.
https://i.imgur.com/JFGdkhS.png
12z Euro from 5 days ago.
https://i.imgur.com/DBx0OVi.png
I disagree with this statement. What I see is both models showing a defined low pressure system in the northern Gulf.
A defined low pressure system yes, bur definitely not a strengthening Cat.2 Hurricane. So they busted big time!
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:GeneratorPower wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Global models definitely whiffed on Sally, what a surprise.
18z GFS from 5 days ago.
https://i.imgur.com/JFGdkhS.png
12z Euro from 5 days ago.
https://i.imgur.com/DBx0OVi.png
I disagree with this statement. What I see is both models showing a defined low pressure system in the northern Gulf.
A defined low pressure system yes, bur definitely not a strengthening Cat.2 Hurricane. So they busted big time!
Globals usually don't show big defined storms ahead of time as there's too many variables for that kind of detail. Intensity estimates have always been bad so I'm not sure what you're expecting.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
Did anyone see the new euro run? Has an area developing close to the Texas/Mexico border and then takes it into New Orleans as a CAT 1 
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Models
I have been dismissing the ICON model since it came out, but decided to compare it with the GFS and Euro at 5 days out from landfall. Still had the Friday 12Z model runs available so I saved them.
ICON
EURO
GFS
Unfortunately the GFS para is not available for that timeframe.
ICON
EURO
GFS
Unfortunately the GFS para is not available for that timeframe.
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