ATL: SALLY - Advisories

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ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#1 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:55 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS NEW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 79.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of
southeastern Florida from south of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean
Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should also be monitoring
the progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for a portion of that area tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 79.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h). On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to move
inland over south Florida early on Saturday, move into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday, and then move
northwestward over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm before moving across
south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become a
tropical storm on Sunday and gradually intensify through Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area within the next 6 to 12 hours.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida
Keys. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding and
prolong ongoing minor flooding on rivers in the Tampa Bay area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020
2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN
REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET TO NORTH OF OCEAN REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORING
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES
COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT OR ON
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 79.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 78.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

GOES-16 1-minute satellite data show that the system near the
Bahamas that we have been monitoring for the past couple of days
has quickly organized into a tropical depression. Very deep
convection has formed near the center, and the 1-min data now shows
enough north and northwest flow to indicate that a well-defined
center is present. The initial wind speed is 30 kt in agreement
with recent ship data.

It is uncertain whether the large burst of convection over the
center will continue and cause the depression to become a tropical
storm before reaching Florida. However, since it is only a 5 kt
increase from the current intensity, it is possible that tropical
storm conditions could still occur along the southeast Florida coast
late tonight, and a tropical storm watch has been issued.
Otherwise, after the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
steady intensification is expected through the weekend due to
expected light wind shear and very warm water. Some increase in
shear could occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico but that is
uncertain at this time. The first forecast will stay conservative
and only show a peak intensity of 60 kt in 3 to 4 days, but do not
be surprised if that is revised upward on later forecasts once
other models better initialize the depression.

An uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 285/7. Strong
ridging over the southeastern United States is expected to steer the
cyclone to the west-northwest then northwest as a mid-latitude
trough erodes the western side of the ridge over the weekend. The
forecast gets tricky after that because the bulk of the guidance
suggests the trough isn't deep enough to recurve the system, and
instead it gets left behind, moving slowly westward early next week
due to weak ridging over the southern Plains. The NHC forecast is
near the corrected-consensus guidance. The uncertainty in the
track forecast is much larger than normal after 48 hours, as small
changes in the forecast steering flow could result in this system
moving over the northern Gulf Coast faster and to the northeast of
what is shown here. As a result, the risk of seeing direct impacts
from this system extends well outside the cone of uncertainty, even
more so than usual in this case.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding
over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing
minor river flooding in the Tampa Bay area.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible tonight along the
southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity
by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall
will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana this weekend and early next week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and
updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or Hurricane
watches could be issued later tonight and Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 25.4N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.7N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 27.3N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 28.4N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 29.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 29.5N 87.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 30.0N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake[/Div}
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Advisories

#2 Postby AJC3 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:57 pm

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next
6 to 12 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf Coast should also monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for a portion of that area tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 79.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).
On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to move inland
over south Florida early on Saturday, move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Saturday, and then move northwestward over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm before moving
across south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become
a tropical storm on Sunday and gradually intensify through Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area within the next 6 to 12 hours.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5
inches across central and southern Florida, including the Florida
Keys. This rainfall could produce isolated flash flooding and
prolong ongoing minor flooding on rivers in the Tampa Bay area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:05 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida panhandle
from the Ochlockonee River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Jupiter Inlet to north of Ocean Reef
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 79.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h) and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of
depression is forecast to move inland over south Florida during the
next several hours, move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late
Saturday, and then move northwestward over the north-central Gulf
of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression could become a tropical storm before moving across
south Florida overnight. Otherwise it is expected to become
a tropical storm Saturday night or Sunday and gradually intensify
through Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in south Florida overnight and early Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Panhandle
by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 5 inches across central and southern Florida, including
the Florida Keys through Sunday. This rainfall may produce isolated
flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on
rivers across Central Florida. Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to
4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches is expected
across the western Florida Panhandle. This rainfall could produce
isolated flash flooding.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

Doppler radar data from Miami and satellite images indicate that
the depression is gradually becoming better organized. The
low-level center is estimated to be near the northwestern edge of
the main area of deep convection due to some northerly wind shear.
Surface observations and satellite classifications support holding
the initial intensity at 30 kt. The minimum pressure appears to be
a little lower than before, now 1007 mb.

The tropical depression is moving west-northwestward at about 7
kt. A subtropical ridge extending from the southeast U.S. to the
western Atlantic should steer the depression west-northwestward
across south Florida tonight and Saturday morning and then over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico late Saturday and Sunday. After that time,
the ridge is forecast to weaken due to an approaching trough,
but the trough is not expected to be strong enough to cause the
cyclone to turn northward. Instead, the models suggest that a slow
west-northwestward motion very near the northern Gulf coast is
likely during the early and middle portions of next week.
Although the models all show a relatively similar scenario, there
is a fair amount of spread by the time the system nears the
northern Gulf coast. The NHC track forecast lies roughly near the
middle of the guidance envelope close to the consensus aids.
Several of the local National Weather Service forecast offices
across the southeast U.S. will be launching weather balloons four
times per day, which should provide the models with excellent data
in hopes to provide better track guidance during the next couple of
days.

Since the depression is expected to move over very warm SSTs, once
it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow, and remain in an
environment of low wind shear and high moisture, gradual
strengthening seems likely. The models suggest that there could
be an increase in westerly shear around the time the cyclone is
forecast to move inland along the northern Gulf coast in about 4
days. Based on these expected environmental conditions,
strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the NHC
intensity forecast follows the trend of the IVCN and HCCA models.
The depression will likely be at or near hurricane strength when
it reaches the northern Gulf coast.

Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at
96 h is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall is expected to produce isolated flash flooding
over portions of central and southern Florida and prolong existing
minor river flooding across central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible overnight and early
Saturday along the southeast Florida coast where a Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible by
Sunday night in portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical
Storm Watch has been issued.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity
by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall
will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system
and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or
Hurricane watches could be issued on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 25.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 26.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0000Z 26.8N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 27.9N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 28.8N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 29.3N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 29.7N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 30.2N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0000Z 31.3N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Advisories

#4 Postby AJC3 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:20 am

WTNT34 KNHC 120859
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 80.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch is discontinued along the southeastern
coast of Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches
could be issued for a portion of that area on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen
was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 80.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A
west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is then
expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression is forecast to move across the
southern Florida Peninsula this morning, move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico later today, and then move northwestward over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm
later today or tonight and gradually intensify through Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical-
storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches across west-central and southern Florida,
including the Florida Keys through Sunday. This rainfall may produce
scattered flash flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor
flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through
Tuesday morning. This rainfall could produce scattered flash
flooding.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


WTNT44 KNHC 120903
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

Surface observations and Doppler radar data indicate that Tropical
Depression Nineteen was close to tropical storm strength when it
moved ashore in Miami-Dade county just after 06Z. The central
pressure had dropped to near 1004 mb, and the radar showed winds of
45-50 kt above the surface just to the northeast of the center,
associated with a strong convective burst. However, there were no
surface observations of 35-kt sustained winds, and the highest
reported gusts were in the 35-40 kt range. Based on the available
data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. It should be noted
that since landfall, the strong convective burst near the
low-level center has weakened considerably.

The cyclone has turned left during the past several hours, and the
initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/8 kt. The subtropical
ridge extending from the southeastern United States eastward over
the Atlantic should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward
through Sunday. After that time, the ridge is forecast to weaken
due to an approaching mid-latitude trough. This should result in a
northwestward motion through from Sunday night into the middle
portion of next week, with the cyclone expected to reach the
northern Gulf coast around the 96 h point. The latest track
guidance now has the cyclone responding more strongly to the trough
and turning northward by 120 h. The new forecast track is shifted
a little south of the previous track through 72 h based on the
initial position and motion. At 120 h, the new track is nudged to
the east of the old track, but it still lies to the west of the
consensus models.

The depression is currently experiencing some northerly vertical
wind shear, and the latest global model runs are showing more shear
affecting the system as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico than earlier.
However, since the cyclone is going to be over very warm sea
surface temperatures and in a moist environment, the intensity
guidance still shows it strengthening to near hurricane strength,
or stronger, before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. Due to the
uncertainty about the amount of shear, the new intensity forecast
has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. However,
it lies below the various intensity consensus models.

Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h
is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce isolated to
scattered flash flooding across portions of west-central and
southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
Central Florida through Sunday. Scattered flash flooding is also
possible across portions of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through
Tuesday morning.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in
portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has
been issued. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over
portions of the southern Florida Peninsula today.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen to near hurricane intensity
by early next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. Dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall
will be possible along the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to
southeastern Louisiana late this weekend and early next week.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system
and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge, Tropical Storm or
Hurricane watches could be issued later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 25.6N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 12/1800Z 26.1N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 13/0600Z 26.9N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 27.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 28.7N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 29.3N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 29.6N 88.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/0600Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:14 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and
storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and
then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of
Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight, and continue to intensify Sunday and
Monday. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night. Wind gusts to tropical-
storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula today.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the
Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum
amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida
coast to the Tampa Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce
flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high
flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3
to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4
inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and
southeast Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system
that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next
week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and
minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has exhibited little change
on satellite imagery over the past several hours, although recently
the Miami radar shows better-defined banding features over the
southern portion of the circulation. The current intensity
estimate remains at 30 kt for now, which is consistent with surface
observations over the extreme southern Florida peninsula. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system in a few hours, which should provide a better estimate of
the cyclone's intensity. Since the system will be traversing very
warm waters and through a moist air mass with moderate vertical
shear for the next few days, steady strengthening is anticipated.
The cyclone will likely become a hurricane in 2-3 days, although
an increase in vertical shear could slow the rate of
intensification over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The official
forecast intensity around 72 hours is very close to that shown by
the simple and corrected model consensus predictions.

The depression has been moving a little north of west, or about
280/8 kt. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected
for the next day or two, along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level high pressure system centered just east of the
mid-Atlantic coast. This high is forecast to weaken within 2-3
days which should lead to a slowing of the forward motion by
Monday. The forward speed is likely to remain slow through 96
hours, although a high that is predicted to build over the Florida
peninsula in 4-5 days should push the system across the coastline
before the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast
is close to the corrected consensus track prediction, HCCA, which
has been a reliable performer so far.

Users are reminded to not to focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h
is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane early
next week as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and
there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
dangerous hurricane-force winds from southeastern Louisiana to the
Alabama coast. Residents in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of this system and updates to the forecast, as Storm Surge
and Hurricane watches will likely be issued later today.

2. The depression is expected to produce flash flooding across
portions of southern Florida and prolong existing minor river
flooding across central Florida through Sunday. Flash, urban, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely across portions
of the central Gulf Coast Sunday through Tuesday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible by Sunday night in
portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over
portions of the southern Florida Peninsula today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 25.6N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 26.2N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 27.1N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 28.7N 87.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 29.3N 88.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 29.8N 89.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 30.6N 89.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:04 pm

Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 4A...corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

Corrected header

...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and
storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or tonight. A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion is then expected during
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is
forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico
later today and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next
couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by late
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
south and southeast of the center, just to the south of the Florida
Keys.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the
southern portion of the Florida peninsula today, especially over
the Florida Keys. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area in the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6
inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the Florida Keys through
tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
across southern Florida and the western Florida coast to the Tampa
Bay metro area. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding
across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor
flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

Sally is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 to 6
inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast from
the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana and 2 to 4 inches
farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana. This is expected to be a slow-moving system that will
likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding
near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash,
urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to
isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:03 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...SALLY MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 81.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.

The Tropical Storm watch has been extended westward from the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Alabama/Florida Border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Sally is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is expected tonight. A west-northwestward or
northwestward motion is then expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over
the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, and
then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is
forecast to become a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
within the watch area by Monday.

Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the
southern portion of the Florida peninsula through this evening,
especially over the Florida Keys.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through
tonight. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through
Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across
southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding
on rivers across central Florida.

Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated
amounts of 18 inches over the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into
the middle of next week. Sally is expected to be a slow moving
system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next
week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and
minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west-
central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and
the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through tonight over south
Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

Sally continues to gradually become better organized, with
developing convective banding features primarily over the southern
portion of the circulation at this time. Upper-level outflow is
still rather limited over the northern semicircle, possibly due to a
weak upper low near the Georgia/Florida border. The latter feature
is likely to soon move away from the area, however. Based on
earlier scatterometer passes that showed tropical-storm-force winds
over the Straits of Florida, the advisory intensity remains 35 kt.
With very warm waters and a moist tropospheric environment ahead of
Sally, strengthening seems likely. Some increase in westerly shear
over the northern Gulf in 48-72 hours could at least slow down the
intensification process around that time. The official intensity
forecast is not far from the latest model consensus and a little
above the previous forecast.

Fixes from an Air Force Hurricane Hurricane aircraft, radar,
satellite, and surface observations indicate a slow, generally
westward motion of about 280/6 kt. A weakening mid-level high
pressure system to the northeast of Sally should cause a generally
west-northwestward to northwestward motion for the next few days.
Because of the weakening steering currents, the cyclone should
move rather slowly while it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
However, there is expected to be enough of a narrow north-south
oriented ridge to the east of Sally in 3-4 days to steer the
cyclone northward across the coast. The official track forecast
has been nudged just slightly west of the previous one and lies
between the simple and corrected dynamical track model consensus
predictions.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the
track or intensity forecast as the average NHC track error at 96 h
is around 150 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph. In addition, winds, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life threatening storm surge is possible along the Gulf Coast
beginning on Monday, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for areas
outside the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the
Alabama/Florida border. Residents in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Monday.

3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across portions of
southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
central Florida through Sunday. Flash, urban, and minor to moderate
river flooding is likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast
from Sunday through the middle of next week.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible early next week in
portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force could occur over
portions of the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this
evening.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 25.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 82.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SW OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 82.9 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a
west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through
Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight and Sunday, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
Sunday night and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast
within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft will investigate
Sally overnight. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of
days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with
some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of 39 mph (63
km/h) was recently reported in Key West, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...6-9 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible
within the watch areas by Monday.

Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible across the lower
Florida Keys overnight.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible over southern
Florida and the Florida Keys through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along
the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will
produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong
high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central
Florida.

Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated
amounts of 18 inches over the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into
the middle of next week, with 3 to 6 inch rainfall amounts possible
over inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected
to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy
rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast
through the middle of next week. Flash, urban, and rapid onset
flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on
rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of
Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado is possible tonight along the south Florida
Gulf Coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020

Sally's structure remains somewhat disorganized this evening. While
there has been a recent increase in deep convection near the low-
level center, there is a large CDO feature with -70 to -80C tops
displaced 50 to 60 miles to the south and southeast. This structure
could be due to the 10 to 15 kt of northwesterly shear analyzed by
the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity remains 35 kt
based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the
central pressure of 1003 mb is based on surface observations in the
Naples area as the center passed offshore before 00Z. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Sally
overnight to provide more information on the storm's intensity and
structure.

Given the current structure, only gradual strengthening is expected
in the short term. However, once the cyclone develops more of an
inner core, it should be able to take advantage of warm SSTs and low
shear over the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Steady
intensification to hurricane strength is forecast through 48 hours,
with a leveling off of the intensity in 60-72 hours as the shear
is expected to increase. Overall, the intensity guidance is a
little less bullish this cycle, with the HWRF more aggressive while
the remainder of the guidance shows a slower rate of
intensification. The NHC intensity forecast through landfall remains
unchanged from the previous advisory, but now lies a little above
HCCA and the intensity consensus.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/07. Sally is
currently being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the
Carolinas that will shift eastward and weaken as a longwave trough
moves into the eastern United States over the next 24 to 36 hours.
During this time, Sally should move generally west-northwestward or
northwestward with a decrease in forward speed on Monday. By 48
hours, the trough lifts out and a narrow ridge builds in north and
east of Sally, which should result in the tropical cyclone turning
north-northwestward and then northward at less than 5 kt as it
approaches the north-central Gulf Coast and moves inland over the
Mississippi Valley. After that time, the next trough should induce a
faster northeastward motion by day 5. There is a fair bit of spread
in the track guidance after 24 hours, with the COAMPS-TC well to the
right and the GEFS ensemble mean and UKMET to the left. However,
the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement through 60 hours near the
middle of the guidance envelope. The NHC track is similar to the
previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance and is near the
TVCA multi-model consensus and HCCA.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track
or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 72 h is
around 110 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph.
In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend
far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that
Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will
exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along the Gulf Coast
beginning on Monday, and a Storm Surge Watch is in effect for areas
outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk
Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the
Alabama/Florida border. Residents in these areas should follow any
advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Monday.

3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across portions of
southern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
central Florida through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding and minor
to moderate river flooding are likely across portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Sunday through the middle of next week.

4. Tropical storm conditions are possible early next week in
portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch is
in effect. Wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur over
portions of the lower Florida Keys overnight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 26.3N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 27.0N 84.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 27.7N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 28.3N 87.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 28.8N 88.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 30.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 33.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:22 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Port Fourchon Louisiana
to Mississippi/Alabama Border.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Grand Isle Louisiana
northeast to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including New Orleans,
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from east of Morgan City
Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from east of Ocean Springs
Mississippi to Indian Pass Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a
west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through
Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico
today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the
hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Further strengthening is expected over the next couple of
days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with
some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
starting late Monday, with hurricane conditions possible within
the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday, and within
the warning area late Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
across southern and central Florida through Monday. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and
ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 6 to
12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the
Central Gulf Coast between the western Florida Panhandle and far
southeast Louisiana from Monday into the middle of the week.
Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible farther inland over portions
of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow moving
system resulting in significant flash flooding near the Central Gulf
Coast through the middle of the week. Flash, urban and rapid onset
flooding along small streams, and minor to isolated major flooding
on rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of
Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Corrected for inland status at 60 and 72 hourrs

A large burst of convection has formed near the center of Sally this
morning, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that
the storm is strengthening. Peak flight-level winds were up to 57
kt at 925 mb, with believable SFMR winds of up to 45 kt, and
pressure falling a couple of mb to 1001. The initial wind speed is
set to 45 kt for this advisory.

While northwesterly shear has been affecting Sally, the global
models suggest that the shear will decrease later today as it moves
under a narrow ridge. Models all respond to these changing
conditions by showing intensification, but they disagree on the rate
of change. It is an extremely tricky forecast because of how this
might happen close to landfall, but guidance is generally 5-10 kt
higher than the last cycle so the intensity forecast has been raised
by those amounts up through landfall. It is worth noting that rapid
intensification is a possibility if the system develops a more solid
inner core on Monday, and stronger solutions like the HWRF model
can't be dismissed.

Sally is moving west-northwestward at a faster speed this morning.
The biggest change to note is that almost every model has shifted
westward (faster) due to narrow ridging developing across the
northern Gulf Coast between the storm and an exiting mid-latitude
trough. The flow gets quite weak near and after landfall, so the
cyclone should slow down on Tuesday/Wednesday and turn northward.
After that time, the next trough should induce a faster
northeastward motion by day 5. The new track is shifted westward
between 30-45 n mi near the coast of Louisiana, and is still east of
the GFS and ECMWF models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track
or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 48 h is
around 80-90 miles and the average intensity error is around 10-15
mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will
extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing
that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will
exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System from Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by early Tuesday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.

3. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across
southern and central Florida and prolong existing minor river
flooding across Central Florida through Monday. Significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
portions of the Central Gulf Coast from Monday through the middle of
the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 27.7N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 30.1N 90.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 31.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0600Z 32.8N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0600Z 34.5N 84.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 84.6 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a
west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through
Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico
today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the
hurricane warning area late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and
Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some
additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A buoy located about 25 miles offshore of Venice,
Florida, has reported sustained winds of 45 mph and a gust to 58 mph
within the past few hours.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
starting late Monday, with hurricane conditions possible within
the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday, and within
the warning area late Monday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches
across southern and central Florida through Monday. This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and
ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 6 to
12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the
Central Gulf Coast between the western Florida Panhandle and far
southeast Louisiana from Monday into the middle of the week.
Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible farther inland over portions
of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow moving
system resulting in significant flash flooding near the Central Gulf
Coast through the middle of the week. Flash, urban and rapid onset
flooding along small streams, and minor to isolated major flooding
on rivers is likely.

SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of
Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:14 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 84.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning along the coast of Louisiana has been
extended westward to Morgan City.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana
from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 84.9 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through
Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast on Monday night, and slow north-northwestward
motion is expected Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Sally will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the
north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late
Monday and Monday night. Sally is expected to move farther inland
over southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next
day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday,
with some additional strengthening possible before landfall
Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 998 mb (29.48 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the watch area and expected within the warning area beginning
Monday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to
3 inches across southwestern Florida with isolated amounts of 6
inches along that coast through Monday. This rainfall may produce
flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor
flooding on rivers across west-central Florida.

Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in
significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast through the
middle of the week. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 6 to 12
inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far
southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week.

Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track into the
Southeast with rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible farther inland
across much of Mississippi and Alabama with further heavy rain
anticipated for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western
North Carolina. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers for Mississippi and
Alabama. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible for
portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina.

SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of
Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN


Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Although the center of Sally remains near the northwestern edge of
the deep convection, there is a large area of convection and some
banding evident over the southeastern portion of the circulation. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm
this morning reported a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and
believable SFMR winds of around 50 kt, and these data are the basis
for the 50-kt initial wind speed. The plane reported minimum
pressures in the 996-998 mb range, with the higher value being the
most recent information available.

Northwesterly shear continues over the cyclone, but this shear is
expected to decrease later today and tonight as Sally moves beneath
a narrow upper-level ridge axis. This more conducive upper-level
pattern is expected to allow the tropical storm to strengthen while
it moves over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday.
Most of the intensity guidance calls for Sally to become a hurricane
in about 24 hours and so does the official forecast. Additional
strengthening is expected after that time and Sally could be
slightly stronger at landfall than indicated below since it is
forecast to reach the coast between the 36 h forecast point and
48 h when it is inland over southeast Louisiana. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to the consensus aids through 24 hours and at or
just above the SHIPS, LGEM and HFIP corrected consensus aids at 36
and 48 hours.

Sally is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The tropical
storm should continue on that general heading and speed over the
next 12 to 24 hours as it steered around the southern flank of a
mid-level ridge. After 24 hours, Sally is expected to be near the
western portion of the ridge which should cause the storm to slow
down and turn northwestward. The global models have trended toward
slightly more ridging over the northern Gulf during the next 24
hours, and the track guidance has edged westward. The NHC track has
been adjusted slightly westward and lies near the lastest run of the
GFS, but is not as far west as the ECMWF and the various consensus
aids. As Sally rounds the ridge in 48 to 72 h, the steering flow is
expected to be quite weak, and a slow northward motion is forecast
at that time. Afterward, a north-northeastward to northeastward
motion should commence as the cyclone moves in that direction ahead
of a short-wave trough.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or
intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 36-48 h is
60-80 miles and the average intensity error is 10-15 mph. In
addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far
from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that
Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will
exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now
expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside
the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction
System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama
border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday from Grand
Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including
Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by
Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.

3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across southwest and
central Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
portions of the central Gulf Coast Monday through the middle of the
week, with flooding impacts spreading farther into the Southeast in
the middle to late parts of the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 27.5N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 28.5N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 28.9N 89.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 29.7N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 30.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 31.5N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1200Z 33.6N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1200Z 34.8N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:02 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 85.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.9 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed
by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest
Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and
Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the
hurricane warning area late Monday and Monday night. Sally is
expected to move slowly northward near the southeastern Louisiana or
Mississippi coasts through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally
is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional
strengthening possible before the center nears the northern Gulf
Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the
warning area beginning Monday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting
in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday
into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16
inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast
Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall
will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major
flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and track into the
Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of
inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is
possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some
rivers in Mississippi and Alabama.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee,
northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and
minor river flooding is possible across this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday.
This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high
flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase
Monday afternoon and evening over parts of the western Florida
Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast
Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the
Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will
be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

The overall structure of Sally has not changed much since this
morning, but there has been a recent increase in convection near
and to the east of the center this afternoon. It appears that
the northwesterly shear is beginning to relax, and the increase in
convection near the center may be a harbinger of the expected
strengthening phase. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
that have been in the storm since the previous advisory have
reported a fairly stable central pressure of 996-998 mb, and recent
data from the NOAA aircraft still supports an initial intensity of
50 kt. Earlier ASCAT data have been helpful in analyzing the radius
of 34-kt winds, which has expand over the eastern semicircle.

Sally is forecast to move beneath a narrow upper-level ridge axis
through Monday and the expected decrease in shear should allow the
storm to strengthen. Since Sally is forecast to decelerate on its
approach to the northern Gulf coast, the system still has at least
another 36 h to take advantage of the expected conducive
environmental conditions. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast
continues to call for Sally to become a hurricane on Monday, with
additional strengthening likely until landfall. The intensity
guidance has trended slightly lower this cycle, with the HMON model
now at the upper end of the guidance envelope. The reduction in the
statistical guidance is likely due to the fact that Sally has not
strengthened today and there is a persistence component to the
forecast from those models. The latest NHC intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory and lies a little above the latest
HFIP corrected consensus aid.

Recent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Sally continues to
move west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The tropical storm is
currently being steered around the southern portion of a mid-level
ridge to its northeast. Sally is forecast to reach the western
extent of the ridge on Monday, and a slower northwestward motion is
expected when the storm is near the north-central Gulf coast. The
steering currents are forecast to weaken further in a couple of days
as Sally rounds the western extent of the ridge and a slow northward
motion is expected during that time. By 72 hours, the cyclone
should begin to move somewhat faster toward the northeast as a
trough deepens to its west. As often occurs, there has been some
run-to-run variability among the various track models, and the
latest iterations of them have shifted eastward with a slower
forward speed. Despite the shifts of the individual models, the
latest consensus aids are only slightly north and east of the
previous NHC track through 60 hours, so only a small adjustment has
been made to the earlier official forecast through that time. It is
important not to focus too much on these small track changes and
to the exact forecast track itself, as impacts are expected to
extend far from the center. Also, since there is still quite a
bit of model spread in both the location and timing of when the
center of Sally reaches the northern Gulf Coast, additional
adjustments to the track forecast are possible.

Regardless of Sally's exact landfall location and intensity, the
cyclone is expected to bring wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards
to a large part of the north-central Gulf Coast. In particular,
Sally's slow forward speed near the coast will exacerbate the storm
surge and heavy rainfall threats.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Mississippi/Alabama border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with
tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion in those areas.

3. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and
northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle
of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across
the Southeast U.S. through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.8N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.3N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 28.7N 88.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 29.2N 89.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 29.8N 90.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0600Z 30.7N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z 31.8N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/1800Z 33.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/1800Z 34.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:11 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

...SALLY FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward from Ocean Springs
Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama Border.

A Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida Border, including
Mobile Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sally is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west-
northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed
by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest
Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday,
and approach the northern Gulf Coast within the hurricane
warning area on Tuesday. Sally is expected to move slowly northward
near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally
is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday night, with some
additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the
northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km),
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the
warning area beginning Monday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in
significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday into
Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches
with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf
Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana from
Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall will likely
result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area
rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the
Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of
inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is
possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some
rivers in Mississippi and Alabama.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee,
northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and
minor river flooding is possible across this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday.
This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high
flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase
Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday over parts of the
western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi,
and southeast Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the
Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will
be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Sally is gradually getting better organized. Satellite images show
that deep convection has increased near the center, and the cyclone
is now a little more symmetric and vertically aligned compared to
earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating Sally, and so far they have found maximum 850-mb
flight-level winds of 54 kt and maximum believable SFMR winds of 49
kt, which support the 50-kt initial intensity.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has
jogged to the northeast, with the latest 12-hour motion estimated to
be 305/7 kt. The global models show a trough exiting the northeast
U.S. tomorrow and a ridge building to the north of Sally, which
should cause the storm to resume a west-northwest motion at a
relatively slow pace on Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, the
ridge is forecast to slide southeastward as another trough develops
over the south-central U.S. This change in the pattern should cause
Sally to slow down even more and gradually turn to the north and
then the northeast. The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east
of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the
latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of
the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary
overnight. While the current forecast shows landfall along the
northern Gulf coast in 36 to 48 hours, the bottom line is that Sally
is expected to be a slow- moving tropical cyclone near and over the
northern Gulf Coast during the next few days.

The upper-level low that was producing northwesterly shear over
Sally is moving away, resulting in a more favorable upper-level wind
pattern for strengthening. These more conducive winds aloft
combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and a moist air
mass should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthening until
Sally crosses the coast in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the
high end of the model guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is
forecast, and Sally is expected to become a tropical depression by
72 hours and dissipate in about 5 days.

The eastward shift in the track forecast necessitates the extension
of the hurricane warning eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama
border.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to
the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans,
with tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations
should be rushed to completion in those areas.

4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and
northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle
of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across
the Southeast U.S. through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 28.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:02 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...OUTER RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...SALLY LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE,
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 87.3W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 87.3 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This
general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in
forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward
turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, and
approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall
in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is
expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf
Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally
is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional
strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf
Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from
the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are
expected within the warning area beginning this morning.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it
approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the
Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions
of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and
urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate
flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the
Florida peninsula westward through the coast of Alabama, and will
be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the past
several hours. While there was a large burst of convection
earlier, it did not translate into any intensification, with
flight-level reconnaissance and SFMR surface winds still supporting
an initial wind speed of 50 kt. The Air Force Reserve plane did
find that the size of tropical-storm-force wind field has
notable grown to the north and northwest of the center. The storm
still has time to intensify under a seemingly conducive environment
during the next 24-36 hours, before a combination of increasing
westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the
intensification rate. Model guidance has come down slightly from 6
hours ago, but it has been inconsistent from cycle to cycle. The
new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near
the top end of the guidance envelope.

The reconnaissance plane showed that Sally took a westward turn
during the past several hours, but the storm appears to have a
resumed a more west-northwestward motion recently. Weak ridging
over the southern United States is expected to cause this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed today before the storm
slowly turns northward sometime on Tuesday due to an approaching
trough. Guidance is not in good agreement on exactly when that
turn occurs, causing a good deal of spread for a relatively
short-range forecast. The track forecast has been shifted to the
left in the short-term primarily due to the initial position,
showing a track near or over extreme southeastern Louisiana, then
is the near the previous one at its final landfall. The bottom
line continues to be that Sally is expected to be a dangerous
slow-moving hurricane near the coast of southeastern Louisiana,
Mississippi and Alabama during the next 2-3 days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late today within portions
of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to
the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans,
with tropical storm conditions likely to begin by late this
morning. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas.

4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and
northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across
west-central Florida through today. Widespread significant flash
flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across
southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle
of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across
the Southeast U.S. through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 28.3N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STARTING LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 87.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed
and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over
the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern
Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning
area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly
north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or
so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with
additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the
northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km)
south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak
sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are
expected within the warning area beginning this morning.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it
approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#15 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:03 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...SALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 86.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from the
Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border has been
changed to a Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the center of Sally has reformed to the east of the previous
estimated location. At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of
Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North,
longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near
6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today,
followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the
northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and
make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday
night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-
northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and
Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with
additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the
northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin
within the warning area later today.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80
degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the center
this morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the
east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of
deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in
banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center
found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative
stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and
that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent
minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down
several millibars from the first fix on this flight.

Sally is located within a conducive environment of low wind shear,
warm waters, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are likely to
lead to steady strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. With the
recent increase in organization of the inner core, there is more
confidence that Sally will strengthen to a hurricane later today or
tonight. Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday while the
storm moves slowly northwestward near the coast of southeast
Louisiana. Increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will
probably slow the intensification rate by late tomorrow. The new
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is
near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Since Sally is
forecast to be moving very slowly around the time of landfall a
slower rate of weakening is indicated since a large portion of the
circulation will remain over water for some time.

Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion is a
somewhat uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. Weak ridging over
the southeastern United State should steer Sally slowly west-
northwestward through tonight. After that time, a northwestward to
northward turn is anticipated but the exact timing and location of
the turn remains uncertain. The general trend in the guidance has
been eastward for the past few cycles, and the NHC forecast has been
nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models
but a little west of the various consensus aids.

Regardless of the exact forecast track and intensity of Sally,
the slow-moving storm is expected to cause a life-threatening storm
surge and freshwater flooding event.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
should be rushed to completion.

4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 28.4N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 28.7N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED
TO A HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally
indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane,
with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09
inches).

A Special Advisory will be issued shortly to update the intensity
forecast for Sally.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SALLY HAS RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1130 AM CDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 87.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1130 AM CDT (1630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 87.0 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue today, followed by a decrease in forward
speed and a turn toward the northwest tonight and a northward turn
sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally
will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach
southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane
warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is
expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf
Coast through Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened. The maximum
sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin
within the warning area later today.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally recently
measured peak flight-level winds of 88 kt at 700 mb and SFMR winds
of 78 kt north of the center, and an Air Force reconnaissance
aircraft just measured 79 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb. These
data indicate that Sally has rapidly strengthened into a hurricane
with an intensity of around 80 kt. In addition, data from the KEVX
WSR-88D show an eye forming at around 16,000 ft altitude. This
special advisory has been issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity. Additional adjustments to the intensity forecast
could be required this afternoon. Only a slight adjustment was made
to the 12-h track forecast position based on the more northward and
eastward initial position.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane
Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late
Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and
Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin
later today and this evening in these areas and preparations
should be rushed to completion.

4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1630Z 28.7N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 28.8N 87.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#16 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:08 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...SALLY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 87.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 28.7 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally has been meandering
over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, but a west-northwest
near 7 mph (11 km/h) should resume later today. A decrease in
forward speed and a turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight
and a northward turn is expected sometime on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and
make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday
night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly
north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves
onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL...6-9 ft
Mobile Bay...5-8 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay,
Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin
within the warning area later today.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track
into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across
portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant
flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to
moderate flooding on some rivers.

Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern
Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into
Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across
this region.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through
Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi,
Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER, ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward along the coast
of the Florida panhandle to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward along the coast
of the Florida Panhandle to Navarre.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of Morgan City Louisiana has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida Panhandle
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected
by Tuesday, and a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion
is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Sally will move near the coast of southeastern
Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make landfall in the hurricane
warning area on late Tuesday or Wednesday.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast tonight and
early Tuesday and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when
it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9
ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including
Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area late tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions expected to begin within the warning area this evening.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track
across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern
Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western
Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well
as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The
threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these
areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme
southeast Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the
west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of
southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the
most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any
higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds
of 85-90 kt reported. Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR
winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this
advisory. The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample
the storm. Now that Sally has developed an inner core, the
favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions of low vertical wind
shear and warm water should allow for additional strengthening
tonight while the system moves over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico, and Sally could approach major hurricane strength. On
Tuesday, the global models are predicting an increasing in
southwesterly flow aloft, and this increase in shear, the potential
for land interaction, and some upwelling over the shallower shelf
waters over the northern Gulf should slow the intensification
process. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of
the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HWRF and HFIP
corrected consensus models.

Sally did not move much earlier today as the center re-formation
took place, but it appears that a slow west-northwestward to
northwestward motion has resumed. Weak ridging over the
southeastern United States is expected to steer Sally generally
west-northwestward through early Tuesday. After that time, steering
currents weaken and a slow northward motion is forecast as a weak
mid-level trough develops over the the central United States. This
trough is forecast to slide eastward, allowing Sally to begin a
slow north-northeastward or northeastward motion. The specific
timing and location of the turn will be critical as to the eventual
location and timing of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.
The UKMET and ECMWF models show a more northeastward motion after
the turn and have trended eastward, with the ECMWF much slower than
the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track has been adjusted
eastward, and this requires and eastward extension of the hurricane
warning. The new track most closely follows the GFS and it ensemble
mean, but lies to the west of the various consensus aids, so some
additional eastward adjustments could be needed in subsequent
advisories.

Given the uncertainty in the timing and location of the northward
turn and the lack of well-defined steering currents, users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific
timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous
storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of
the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 36 to 48 hours is around 60 to 80 miles, and
dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well
away from the center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected late tonight or early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are
expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane
Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the
western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are likely to
begin this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed
to completion.

4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 28.8N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

...OUTER RAIN BANDS OF SALLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 87.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 87.5 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is
likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to
northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near
the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast tonight and early Tuesday and Sally is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the
north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A buoy offshore of Orange Beach, Alabama, recently
reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...7-11 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9
ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including
Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In
addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to
isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track
across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern
Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia and the western
Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well
as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of
1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may
produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing
minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. The
threat of tornadoes is expected to increase on Tuesday in these
areas, as well as over parts of southern Mississippi and extreme
southeast Louisiana.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#17 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:10 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 15...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Corrected Storm Surge Hazards section

...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING
LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 87.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning west of Grand Isle to Morgan City, Louisiana,
has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving
toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday morning. A northward turn is
likely by Tuesday afternoon, and a slow north-northeastward to
northeastward motion is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move near
the coast of southeastern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast early Tuesday and Sally is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the
north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A buoy south of Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently
reported sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 69
mph (111 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake
Borgne...6-9 ft
Mobile Bay...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay
an Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later tonight and Tuesday. Tropical storm
conditions expected to begin within the warning area during the
next few hours.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi
through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is
likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread
minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across
the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern
Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern
Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding
on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3
inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall
may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and
ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible late tonight through
early Tuesday in coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama.
The threat for tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland
during the day on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart


Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has
plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that
the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support
perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar
images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of
the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the
south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into
that portion of the circulation.

Aircraft and Doppler radar fixes indicate that Sally is moving
very slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial
motion estimated to be 300/3 kt. Weak high pressure ridging to the
north and east of Sally is expected to cause the hurricane to
continue to move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for
another 12 hours, bringing the center of the storm very near
the northern Gulf coast. By Tuesday afternoon, when the hurricane
will likely be just offshore, the models show the steering currents
collapsing and Sally is likely to drift northward before finally
turning northeastward ahead of a developing mid-level trough over
the central U.S. by late Wednesday. There continues to be a
significant amount of uncertainty on exactly where and when
Sally turns northward and makes landfall, with model solutions
ranging from a landfall on the Florida panhandle to a landfall in
extreme southeastern Louisiana. It should be emphasized that it is
always challenging to forecast the track of hurricanes in weak
steering currents, and in Sally's case the weak steering is
occurring very near land. The new NHC track forecast is a little
to the east of the previous one, trending toward the latest
consensus aids.

Sally is still in generally favorable environmental conditions
consisting of very warm SSTs and low wind shear. Since the
hurricane will likely remain in those conditions through Tuesday
morning, some strengthening seems likely in the short term. In 12
to 24 hours, when Sally is forecast to be very near the coast, a
combination of an increase in westerly shear and cooler upwelled
shelf waters should limit additional intensification. After the
hurricane makes landfall, rapid weakening is forecast and Sally
should become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days over the southeast U.S.
The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model
guidance and is quite similar to the previous one.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the
specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds,
dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large
portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should
follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected early Tuesday within the
Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are
expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane
Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the
western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already
occurring in some of these areas.

4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely with Sally, as well as
widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers, along
and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and
urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river
flooding is likely across inland portions of Mississippi and Alabama
and into northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and the western
Carolinas through the week. Sally may continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 28.9N 87.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 29.1N 88.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0000Z 31.3N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/1200Z 32.0N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 32.7N 84.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z 33.1N 82.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...SALLY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE JOGGING WESTWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 88.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally
is moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow
west-northwestward motion is expected to resume later this morning.
A northward turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow
north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally
will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and
make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday
morning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. However, some re-strengthening is forecast early to occur
later today, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when
it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A NOAA C-MAN observing station on Dauphin Island,
Alabama, recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h), while a
buoy just south of Dauphin Island recently reported a wind gust to
59 mph (94 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake
Borgne...6-9 ft
Mobile Bay...6-9 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay
an Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft
Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-2 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later today. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring in portions of the warning area across Alabama, and these
conditions will gradually spread westward this morning.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from
the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi
through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is
likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread
minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track across
the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of eastern
Mississippi, central Alabama, northern Georgia, southeastern
Tennessee, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding
on some rivers.

Outer bands of Sally could produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3
inches across the Florida peninsula through tonight. This rainfall
may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and
ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The threat for
tornadoes should increase and slowly spread inland during the day
today.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced by a Tropical Storm Warning
from the Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan
New Orleans.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle.

The Storm Surge Warning between Port Fourchon and the Mouth of the
Mississippi River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan
New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 88.1 West. Sally
is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. A northward
turn is expected this afternoon, followed by a slow
north-northeastward to northeastward motion tonight and continuing
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally
will move near the coast of southeastern Louisiana later today, and
make landfall in the hurricane warning area tonight or Wednesday
morning.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until
landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous
hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Mississippi River to Dauphin Island including Lake
Borgne...6-9 ft
Mobile Bay...6-9 ft
Dauphin Island to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay
and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft

Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm
Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation
values may be higher than those shown above.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area
across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these
conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast
from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi.
Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash
flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will
lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and move across
the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern
Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely,
as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado
threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today
into Wednesday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 16...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Corrected Key Messages 2 and 3

There has been little change overall in Sally's convective
structure in both satellite and Doppler radar data. An eye has tried
to close off several times this morning, but after less than 30
minutes the southern eyewall has eroded. Until just recently, the
central pressure had been steady for the past several hours at 986
mb. However, the most recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance pass
through Sally's center reported a dropsonde pressure of 984 mb and
13 kt winds, which equals a pressure of 983 mb. Maximum 700-mb
flight-level winds observed have only been 63 kt and peak SFMR
winds have been 58 kt. Also, reports from nearby oil rigs have
dropped off significantly since yesterday are are now in the 40-50
kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
lowered to 75 kt.

The initial motion estimate to 300/02 kt. After a brief jog due
west, it appears that Sally has resumed a slow drift toward the
west-northwest. Sally is embedded within weak steering flow based
on 0000Z upper-air data indicating 500-mb heights of 5900 meters
and slightly higher surrounding the cyclone from Florida northward
into the Tennessee Valley and then westward into the central and
southern Plains. This weak steering pattern is expected to persist
for the next few days, with a weak mid-level trough forecast to
move into the Missouri and Tennessee Valleys by Wednesday and
Thursday, which will gradually lift Sally northward and then
northeastward. Sally is forecast to merge with a frontal system by
day 4 or 5. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory and lies down the middle of the rather divergent model
guidance envelope.

Sally is now expected to remain in a moderate to high mid-to
upper-level wind shear environment. Ina addition, some modest
upwelling is likely occurring in the inner-core region based a SST
decrease of nearly 2 deg F during the past 24 hours based on data
from buoy 42012. After the Sally makes landfall, rapid weakening is
forecast and Sally should become post-tropical in 3 days or less.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the
specific timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds,
dangerous storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large
portion of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected today within the Hurricane
Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the
western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are already
occurring in some of these areas.

4. Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash
flooding likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far
southeastern Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major flooding on
area rivers is forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf
Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread
minor to moderate river flooding is likely across inland portions of
Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas
through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 28.9N 88.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 29.2N 88.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 30.6N 88.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0600Z 31.4N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/1800Z 32.2N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0600Z 32.8N 84.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 33.2N 81.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#18 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:13 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 88.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the Pearl River westward to Grand Isle Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas and metropolitan
New Orleans

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving
toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue this morning. A northward turn is expected this
afternoon, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward
motion tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will pass near the coast of
southeastern Louisiana today, and make landfall in the hurricane
warning area tonight or Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until
landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane
when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Ocean Springs, MS to Dauphin Island, AL including Mobile Bay...6-9
ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-7 ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-7 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area this late afternoon or tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are occurring in portions of the warning area
across the western Florida Panhandle and Alabama, and these
conditions will gradually spread westward this morning and continue
into Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it
approaches land producing 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated
amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast
from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi.
Historic flooding is possible with extreme life-threatening flash
flooding likely through Wednesday. In addition, this rainfall will
lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland early Wednesday and move
across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of
southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, northern
Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate
flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible this morning in
coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. The tornado
threat should increase and slowly spread inland the rest of today
into Wednesday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...SALLY CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...HISTORIC FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FROM SALLY WITH EXTREME LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 88.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St.
Louis Mississippi has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Tropical Storm Warning for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and metropolitan New Orleans has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 88.2 West. Sally is moving
toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow north-
northwestward to northward motion is expected this afternoon,
followed by a slow northward to north-northeastward motion tonight
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally
will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until
landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane
when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including
Lake Borgne...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line,FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrews Bay...1-3 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning
areas, and these conditions will continue through Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far
southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme
life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In
addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major
flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland Wednesday and track across the
Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western
Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well
as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes may occur today through Wednesday
across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

The satellite presentation of Sally has not changed much since
overnight. A ragged eye is seen in WSR-88D radar imagery, with
a band occasionally trying to wrap around the southwestern side.
A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft has just recently provided a new
center fix, and data from the center drop indicated the minimum
pressure is 983 mb. The first pass through the northeastern
quadrant suggests that the 50-kt wind field may have expanded, but
there has been little change in peak winds reported by the
aircraft. The intensity has been held at 75 kt pending additional
data from the NOAA P-3 mission that has just begun. A highly
elevated oil rig just northeast of the center reported peak has
reported sustained winds of 69 kt with a gust to 86 kt around 1200
UTC this morning.

Sally has been meandering this morning, but the longer-term motion
is northwestward or 315/2 kt. Sally remains within an area of weak
steering flow, but a weak mid-level trough over the south-central
United States is forecast to slide eastward over the next over the
next couple of days. This pattern should cause Sally to move very
slowly north-northwestward to northward over the next 24 hours, with
the center of the hurricane nearing the northern Gulf Coast late
tonight or Wednesday. By late Wednesday, Sally should turn
northeastward as the aforementioned trough approaches Missouri and
Arkansas. The new forecast has been nudged slightly eastward in
the early portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion is
very close to the previous advisory. The new track lies a little
to the west of the various consensus aids in deference to the
typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models that are near the left
edge of the guidance envelope. Sally's forward motion is forecast
to be around 5 kt or less throughout the forecast period, which
will result in a long period of heavy rainfall and historic flooding
along the north-central Gulf Coast.

Moderate westerly shear and upwelling beneath the slow moving
hurricane are likely to prevent strengthening today. The shear is
forecast to increase tonight and although some slight weakening
could occur before the center reaches the coast, Sally is predicted
to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall. Once Sally moves
inland, rapid weakening is expected and circulation is forecast to
lose definition and dissipate by day 4.

Users are reminded to not focus on the specific timing and location
of landfall. Life-threatening storm surge, historic flash flooding
from heavy rainfall, and dangerous winds will affect a large portion
of the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida
Panhandle. The highest inundation is expected along the Alabama
coast, including Mobile Bay.

2. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely through
Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the western
Florida Panhandle to far southeastern Mississippi. Widespread
moderate to major river flooding is forecast along and just inland
of the central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as
well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, are likely
across inland portions of Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia,
and the western Carolinas through the week.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected today within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines
and the western Florida Panhandle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 29.1N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 29.6N 88.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.2N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 31.0N 87.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1200Z 31.9N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0000Z 32.6N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1200Z 33.0N 83.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...SALLY INCHING ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 88.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 88.2 West. Sally is moving
toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow north-
northwestward to northward motion is expected this afternoon,
followed by a slow northward to north-northeastward motion tonight
through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally
will pass near the coast of southeastern Louisiana today, and make
landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although little change in strength is forecast until
landfall occurs, Sally is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane
when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A NOAA buoy located about 50 miles (80 km)
southeast of Mobile, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of
56 mph (90 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) within the past few
hours. A weather station at Dauphin Island, Alabama, recently
reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph
(95 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including
Lake Borgne...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line,FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrews Bay...1-3 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later today or tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas,
and these conditions will continue through Wednesday night.

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far
southeastern Mississippi. Historic flooding is likely with extreme
life-threatening flash flooding likely through Wednesday. In
addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major
flooding on area rivers.

Sally is forecast to move inland Wednesday and track across the
Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, northern Georgia, and the western
Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well
as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes may occur today through Wednesday
across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 88.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 88.1 West. Sally is moving
toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is
expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northeastward to
northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slightly
faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf
Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area
late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across
southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radar
indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until
landfall occurs and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane
when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A NOAA buoy located about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of
Mobile, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94
km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) within the past couple of
hours. An observing site at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier in Florida
has reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 52
mph (83 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 979 mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the
Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic
life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this
rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area
rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the
Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely,
as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including
Lake Borgne...3-5 ft
MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including
Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will
continue through Wednesday night.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur this evening through Wednesday
across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Sally has been inching its way toward the north-central Gulf Coast
today. The overall structure of the storm has remained about the
same during the day with a large ragged eye in apparent in radar
imagery. A NOAA P-3 aircraft that has been sampling the storm
since late this morning has reported peak flight-level winds of
76 kt, and NWS Doppler radar has shown velocities of 75-80 kt at
around 7000 ft. The intensity was reduced to 70 kt on the 1800 UTC
intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory.

Radar and aircraft fixes show that Sally has been moving very slowly
toward the north or 350/2 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains
unchanged from the previous advisory. Sally is currently located
within an area of weak steering flow between a couple of mid-level
ridges to its east and west. A weak mid-level trough over the
south-central United States is forecast to slide eastward over the
next few days, which should cause Sally to turn north-northeastward
and then northeastward over the next 24-36 hours. Sally's forward
speed is expected to remain quite slow over the next 24-48 hours,
but the guidance has trended slightly faster after that time. The
slow forward speed is likely to result in a historical rainfall
event for the north-central Gulf Coast. It may sound like a broken
record, but the track guidance has again shifted eastward during the
first 24-36 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. Since Sally has a large wind field, and storm surge
and rainfall hazards extend far from the eye, users should not focus
on the exact forecast track or specific location and timing of
landfall as strong winds and bands of heavy rainfall are already
affecting the Gulf Coast and will continue to do so for quite some
time.

The combination of upwelling and moderate westerly shear is likely
to result in little change in strength prior to Sally moving
onshore. Once the center of the hurricane moves onshore, rapid
weakening is expected and the global models indicate that the
circulation will becoming elongated along a frontal boundary in 3
to 4 days.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is
likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the
Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern
Mississippi. Widespread moderate to major river flooding is
forecast along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast.
Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to
moderate river flooding, is likely across inland portions of
Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the western Carolinas
this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this evening and overnight
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi
and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 29.5N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 30.6N 87.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 32.5N 85.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 33.1N 83.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/1800Z 33.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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AJC3
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#19 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:15 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 88.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to Navarre Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
* Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
radar near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is
moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward
motion is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northeastward
to northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A
slightly faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern
Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area
late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across
southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs,
and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves
onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to
70 mph (113 km/h) were recently reported at Petit Bois Island,
Mississippi. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 66
mph (106 km/h) were recently reported on Dauphin Island, Alabama.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the
Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic
life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this
rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area
rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the
Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely,
as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including
Lake Borgne...3-5 ft
MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft
AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including
Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft
Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas,
and will continue through Wednesday night.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across
portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...8 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER...

NHC is beginning hourly position updates for Hurricane Sally for as
long as the eye remains well defined in NOAA Doppler radar images.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Sally's maximum winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h). This new intensity will be incorporated into the next full
advisory issued at 10 PM CDT. Some additional strengthening is
possible before Sally's center reaches the northern Gulf coast on
Wednesday.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
900 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...9 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SALLY CREEPING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) with a gust to 73 mph (117
km/h) was recently reported at Petit Bois Island, Mississippi.


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 87.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg


BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended east of Navarre Florida to
the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between the Mouth of
the Pearl River and the Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida
* Mobile Bay
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County
line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida
* Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally is moving
toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed
by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast
tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area early
Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern
Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Sally
is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along
the north-central Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the
Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic,
life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this
rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on
area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the
Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely,
as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-6 ft
Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including
Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...2-4 ft
MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft
Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will
continue through Wednesday night.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across
portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate some strengthening. The eye
has become a little better defined on the radar, and the central
pressure has fallen to 972 mb. The eye has also become evident on
recent IR imagery. Using a blend of flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, along with the Doppler velocities,
gives a current intensity estimate of 75 kt. Given the recent
trends, the official forecast allows for some more intensification
before landfall, which is likely to occur in less than 12 hours.
Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the
system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is
consistent with the model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that the motion is now
north-northeastward, or 020/2 kt. Sally should move
north-northeastward, and then northeastward, with a gradual
increase in forward speed, along the northwestern side of a weak
mid-level high pressure area for the next couple of days. Then, as
the system approaches the westerly flow at higher latitudes, the
cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with a slight further
increase in forward speed until becoming a dissipating remnant low
near the southeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast
is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA,
prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is
likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the
Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the
Alabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major river
flooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southern
Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as
widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland
portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the
western Carolinas this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this evening and overnight
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi
and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 29.8N 87.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#20 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:18 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended east of Navarre Florida to
the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued between the Mouth of
the Pearl River and the Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida
* Mobile Bay
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County
line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida
* Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally is moving
toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed
by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast
tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area early
Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern
Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Sally
is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along
the north-central Gulf Coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the
Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic,
life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this
rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on
area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the
Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely,
as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-6 ft
Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-6 ft
Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including
Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...2-4 ft
MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft
Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the
hurricane warning area later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will
continue through Wednesday night.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across
portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate some strengthening. The eye
has become a little better defined on the radar, and the central
pressure has fallen to 972 mb. The eye has also become evident on
recent IR imagery. Using a blend of flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds, along with the Doppler velocities,
gives a current intensity estimate of 75 kt. Given the recent
trends, the official forecast allows for some more intensification
before landfall, which is likely to occur in less than 12 hours.
Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the
system should become a remnant low in a couple of days. This is
consistent with the model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that the motion is now
north-northeastward, or 020/2 kt. Sally should move
north-northeastward, and then northeastward, with a gradual
increase in forward speed, along the northwestern side of a weak
mid-level high pressure area for the next couple of days. Then, as
the system approaches the westerly flow at higher latitudes, the
cyclone should turn toward the east-northeast with a slight further
increase in forward speed until becoming a dissipating remnant low
near the southeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast
is close to the latest corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA,
prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is
likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the
Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the
Alabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major river
flooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southern
Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as
widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland
portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the
western Carolinas this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this evening and overnight
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi
and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 29.8N 87.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...ON THE COAST
24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020

...11 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SALLY STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally has
strengthened to 90 mph (150 km/h).

A sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (131
km/h) was recently reported in the Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA
buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama.


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...12 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...SALLY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT INCHES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally has
strengthened to 100 mph (160 km/h).

If further strengthening becomes likely before Sally's center
reaches the northern Gulf coast later this morning, then a Special
Advisory will be issued at 100 AM CDT.

A sustained wind of 76 mph (122 km/h) with a gust to 96 mph (155
km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA
buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. An
unofficial report of a wind gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) was recently
received from an amateur radio operator in Navarre Beach, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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