ATL: SALLY - Advisories

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#21 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:22 am

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN, A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS COMING OUT
SHORTLY...

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Sally's
maximum sustained winds have increased to 105 mph (165 km/h).

Further strengthening is possible, and a Special Advisory will be
issued within 15 minutes in lieu of the intermediate advisory to
update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#22 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:43 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Special Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREAD
ONSHORE THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO
DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA...
...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 130 AM CDT...0630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida
* Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to the Okaloosa/Walton County
line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida
* Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 130 AM CDT (0630 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 87.8 West. Sally
is moving toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a
faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning,
and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today.
Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama
tonight.

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that Maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible before Sally
makes landfall. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) with a gust to 110
mph (178 km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by
NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile,
Alabama. A sustained wind of 72 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph
(144 km/h) were recently measured by the NOAA C-MAN observing
station on Dauphin Island, Alabama.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the Hurricane
Hunters was 968 mb (28.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall
with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the
central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the
Apalachicola River to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Historic,
life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this
rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on
area rivers.

Sally is forecast to turn inland today and track across the
Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi,
southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the
western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely,
as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-7 ft
Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to MS/AL Border including
Lakes Pontchartrain, Maurepas and Borgne...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft
Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the
hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm
conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through today across portions
of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Sally Special Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
130 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Justification for this special advisory is to increase the
initial intensity and the 12-h forecast intensity at landfall.

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Mobile
Alabama WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Sally has continued
to strengthen this morning. Radar data show that Sally's eye has
become better defined and Doppler velocities in the northern eyewall
have reached average values of at least 110 kt between 5000-6000 ft
ASL, which supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 89 kt.
The reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 103 kt, which equates to about 93 kt using a
standard 90 percent adjustment factor, while peak SFMR surface wind
speed have been 85 kt. In addition, a recent dropsonde in the
northeast eyewall measured an average wind speed of 113 kt in the
lowest 150 meters, which equates to about a 94-kt surface wind.
However, those winds appeared to be possibly contaminated by wind
gusts. Based on the above data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 90 kt.

Some additional slight strengthening is possible until landfall
occur, and Sally could peak at 95 kt. Rapid weakening will occur
after the center moves inland, and the system should become a
remnant low in a couple of days. This is consistent with the
latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is
north-northeastward, or 030/02 kt. No changes were made to the
previous track forecast. Sally should continue to move
north-northeastward this morning, and then turn northeastward with
a gradual increase in forward speed by tonight. That motion will
then continue for the next day or so. Then, as Sally approaches the
westerly flow at higher latitudes, the cyclone should turn toward
the east-northeast with a slight further increase in forward speed
until becoming a dissipating remnant low near the southeast U.S.
coast in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest
corrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic, life-threatening flash flooding due to rainfall is
likely through Wednesday along and just inland of the coast from the
Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to the
Alabama/Mississippi border. Widespread moderate to major river
flooding is forecast across the Florida Panhandle and southern
Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as
widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across inland
portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and into Georgia and the
western Carolinas this week.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue
into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area
along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida
Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0630Z 29.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#23 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:24 am

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
200 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA...

A sustained wind of 76 mph (122 km/h) with a gust to 98 mph (158
km/h) was recently reported in Sally's northern eyewall by NOAA buoy
42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama. A
sustained wind of 72 mph (117 km/h) and a gust to 90 mph (144 km/h)
were recently measured by the NOAA C-MAN observing station on
Dauphin Island, Alabama.


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#24 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:08 am

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
300 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Corrected time to 300 am CDT and 0800 UTC

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA...

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust to 75 mph (120
km/h) were recently measured at the Naval Air Station in Pensacola,
Florida.

NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile,
Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) and
a pressure of 970.9 mb inside the eastern portion of Sally's eye.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 87.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#25 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:00 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY'S NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN
ISLAND ALABAMA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 87.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border westward to the Mouth
of the Pearl River.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River has
been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to Fort Morgan, including portions of
Mobile Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Fort Morgan Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sally
was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 87.7
West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed
by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast
this morning, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later
today. Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern
Alabama tonight.

Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and
the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight increase in strength is possible before the center of
Sally's eye makes landfall later this morning. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall occurs.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A sustained wind of 98 mph (157 km/h) and a gust to 116
mph (187 km/h) were recently measured by an elevated NOS CO-OP
observing station in Fort Morgan, Alabama. A University of
Florida weather tower located at Gulf Shores, Alabama, reported a
sustained wind speed of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 93 mph
(150 km/h). NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of
Mobile, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115
km/h) and a pressure of 970.9 mb inside the eastern portion of
Sally's eye.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on the buoy data is
965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional
rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts
possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west
of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10
to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches is expected. Historic
and catastrophic flooding is unfolding. In addition, this rainfall
will lead to widespread moderate to major river flooding.

Sally is forecast to turn northeastward after making landfall today
and move across the Southeast through Friday, producing the
following rainfall totals:

Southern and central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding
on some rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to
6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. Widespread
flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate
river flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-7 ft
Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-7 ft
Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft
MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft
Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew
Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the
hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm
conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

There has been little change in Sally's convective structure during
the past few hours as seen in radar and satellite data. The initial
intensity of 90 kt is based on previous reconnaissance SFMR surface
wind data of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with average
Doppler radar values of 114 kt between 4500-5000 ft ASL, which
supports an equivalent surface wind speed of about 90 kt. The
reconnaissance aircraft has recently measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 110 kt, but those winds may not be making it
down to the surface based on earlier buoy wind reports underneath
the eyewall. Although the northern eyewall has moved onshore between
Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay, some slight strengthening is still
possible until the center of Sally's eye makes landfall later this
morning. Rapid weakening is forecast after the center moves inland,
and the system should become a remnant low in a couple of days.
This is consistent with the latest model guidance.

Radar and aircraft center fixes indicate that Sally's motion is
north-northeastward, or 020/03 kt. No significant changes were
required to the previous track forecast. The latest NHC model
guidance continues to show Sally moving slowly north-northeastward
this morning, and then turn northeastward with a gradual increase in
forward speed by tonight. That motion should then continue for the
next day or so. As Sally approaches the mid-latitude westerlies at
higher latitudes, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the
east-northeast with some slight increase in forward speed until it
becomes a dissipating remnant low near the southeastern U.S. coast
in 2-3 days. The official forecast is close to the latest corrected
dynamical model consensus, HCCA, prediction.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding along and just
inland of the coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile
Bay, Alabama. In addition, widespread moderate to major river
flooding is forecast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well
as widespread minor to moderate river flooding, is likely across
inland portions Alabama into central Georgia. Widespread flash and
urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate
river flooding, across western South Carolina into western and
central North Carolina. Scattered flash and urban flooding is
possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding in southeast
Virginia.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Pensacola Bay and southern portions of Mobile Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected this morning and then continue
into this afternoon within portions of the Hurricane Warning area
along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the western Florida
Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 30.1N 87.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 30.7N 87.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 32.6N 84.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 33.5N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1800Z 34.1N 79.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#26 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:07 am

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE SALLY MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR GULF SHORES ALABAMA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

At approximately 445 AM CDT...0945 UTC...the center of Hurricane
Sally's eye made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, as a Category 2
hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) and a
minimum central pressure of 965 mb (28.50 inches).

SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Blake

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
600 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A sustained wind of 81 mph (130 km/h) and a gust to 99 mph (159
km/h) has been reported at Dauphin Island, Alabama, within the past
hour or so.

A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 86 mph (139
km/h) has been observed at the Pensacola Naval Air Station, in
Pensacola, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Dauphin
Island, Alabama.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Dauphin Island Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sally
was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.4 North,
longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near
3 mph (6 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a
slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight,
followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme
western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early
Thursday, and move over central Georgia Thursday afternoon through
Thursday night.

Doppler weather radar data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is
expected as the center moves inland today and tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to
92 mph (148 km/h) were recently reported at the Pensacola Naval Air
Station in Pensacola, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional
rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts
possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west
of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10
to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches is expected. Historic
and catastrophic flooding is unfolding. In addition, this rainfall
will lead to widespread moderate to major river flooding.

Sally is forecast to turn northeastward after making landfall today
and move across the Southeast through Friday, producing the
following rainfall totals:

Southern and central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban
flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding
on some rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to
6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. Widespread
flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate
river flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...4-7 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton Bay County Line, FL...2-4
ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Bon Secour Bay...2-4 ft
Walton Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the
hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm
conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the
Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
800 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A wind gust of 81 mph (130 km/h) has been observed at the Pensacola
Naval Air Station, in Pensacola, Florida within the past hour.

A wind gust of 74 mph (120 km/h) has been reported at the
Mobile Downtown Airport, in Mobile, Alabama, within the past
hour or so.


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 87.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NNE OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
900 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...CENTER OF SALLY MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A wind gust of 77 mph (125 km/h) was recently observed at the
Pensacola Naval Air Station, in Pensacola, Florida.

A wind gust of 57 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at the
Mobile Downtown Airport, in Mobile, Alabama.

A National Ocean Service water level station in Pensacola, Florida,
recently reported ABOUT 5.5 feet of inundation above ground level.

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 87.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:02 am

Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 87.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Dauphin Island Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass
Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located
by NWS Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude 30.6
North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving toward the north-
northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north-northeastward to
northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
later today and tonight. A faster northeastward motion is forecast
Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and
southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move over central
Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center
moves farther inland this afternoon and tonight, and Sally is
forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A wind gust of 82 mph (135 km/h) was recently observed at
the Pensacola Naval Air Station, in Pensacola, Florida. A wind gust
of 68 mph (110 km/h) was recently reported at the Mobile Downtown
Airport, in Mobile, Alabama.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 975 mb (28.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional
rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts
possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west
of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10
to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic
and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major
river flooding, is unfolding.

Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the
following rainfall totals:

Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is
likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some
rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and
urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river
flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7
inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...4-7 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL...2-4
ft
Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Bon Secour Bay...2-4 ft
Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue this afternoon within
portions of the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama.
Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning
areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest
Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

NWS Doppler Radar and fixes from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Sally made landfall near Gulf Shores,
Alabama, around 0945 UTC with an intensity of 90 kt and a minimum
central pressure of 965 mb. Since that time, the center has been
inching its way inland over southeastern Alabama and the extreme
western portion of the Florida panhandle. The eye has degraded in
radar imagery, and Doppler velocities are gradually decreasing.
The intensity has therefore been reduced to 70 kt for this
advisory. Sally should continue to rapidly weaken today, and once
the majority of the circulation is onshore by Thursday morning, it
should weaken to a tropical depression. The remnant low is forecast
to be absorbed by a frontal boundary near the southeastern United
States coastline in a couple of days.

Radar and the earlier aircraft fixes show that the longer-term
motion is 030/4 kt. Sally should continue to move north-
northeastward to northeastward with a gradual increase in forward
speed as it enters the southern extent of the mid-latitude
westerlies over the next 24-36 hours. A faster east-northeastward
motion is expected by 36-48 hours before Sally or its remnants
merge with the aforementioned frontal zone. The updated NHC track
forecast is close to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is
slightly north of the previous advisory.

As Sally moves inland, ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding will
spread northeastward across southeastern Alabama and portions of
Georgia and western South Carolina during the next day or two.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate
to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from
west of Tallahassee, Florida, to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant
and widespread flooding is likely across inland portions of Alabama
into central Georgia, and possible across western South Carolina,
western and central North Carolina, and far southeast Virginia.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
coastline from Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle, including
Pensacola Bay.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected to continue this afternoon
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area in southern Alabama
and the western Florida panhandle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 30.6N 87.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
12H 17/0000Z 31.3N 86.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 32.4N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1200Z 34.6N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:53 am

Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1100 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...CENTER OF SALLY NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h)
was recently observed at Santa Rosa Sound, Florida.

A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101
km/h) was recently reported from a WeatherFlow sensor at Fair Point
Light, Florida.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 87.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown/Stevenson


Hurricane Sally Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1200 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...CENTER OF SALLY MOVING OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING ONGOING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

A sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust of 81 mph (130
km/h) was recently reported at Tate High School, near Pensacola,
Florida.

This will be the last hourly position update issued on Sally. The
intermediate advisory will be issued at 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 87.2W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown/Stevenson
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 87.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to the
Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located by NWS Doppler radar and surface observations near latitude
30.9 North, longitude 87.1 West. Sally is moving toward the north-
northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a north-northeastward to
northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
this afternoon and tonight. A faster northeastward motion is
forecast Thursday and Thursday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida
panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, move
over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina
Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center
moves farther inland this afternoon and tonight, and Sally is
forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust
of 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial
observing site at Tate High School, near Pensacola, Florida. A
sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h)
was recently observed at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier, near Okaloosa
Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional
rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts
possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west
of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10
to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches are expected. Historic
and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major
river flooding, is unfolding.

Sally will track across the Southeast through Friday, producing the
following rainfall totals:

Central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated
amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is
likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some
rivers.

Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to
6 inches, with isolated amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and
urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river
flooding.

Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated amounts of 7
inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
scattered minor river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola
Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton/Bay County Line, FL...2-4
ft
Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning areas through tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest
Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:04 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ALABAMA
AND WESTERN GEORGIA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 86.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF DOTHAN ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Alabama has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sally is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
tonight through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over
central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday
night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center
moves farther inland tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a
tropical depression tonight or Thursday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with
isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama.
Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to
major river flooding, will continue across this region. Additional
rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is possible across the Florida Panhandle
from Tallahassee to the Apalachicola River.

Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast
through Friday:

Southern Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and
widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding.

Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to
moderate river flooding is possible.

Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6
inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding
and widespread minor river flooding is possible.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Walton/Bay County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay
and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft
Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur this afternoon and tonight
across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. The
threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into parts of eastern
Georgia and much of the Carolinas on Thursday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

The center of Sally continued its slow trek inland across the
far western Florida Panhandle early this afternoon, and it is
now located over southeastern Alabama. The satellite and radar
presentation of the storm has continued to degrade, and surface
observations and Doppler radar data show that winds have continued
to gradually decrease. The initial intensity has been reduced to
50 kt, and rapidly weakening should continue as the circulation
moves farther inland. Sally is forecast to become a tropical
depression tonight or early Thursday, and degenerate into a remnant
low in 36-48 hours. The system is expected to be absorbed by a
frontal boundary near the southeast U.S. coast on Friday.

Sally is moving north-northeastward at a slightly faster forward
speed of 6 kt. The cyclone should turn northeastward and move at a
slightly faster forward speed as it become embedded within the
southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general
motion should continue until dissipation occurs. The dynamical
models are tightly clustered and the NHC track is near the center
of envelope.

Although the winds and storm surge from Sally are expected to
continue to subside this evening, heavy rainfall and flooding will
continue to spread inland over southeastern Alabama, central
Georgia, and western South Carolina over the next day or so.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate
to major river flooding, is unfolding along and just inland from
west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Significant and
widespread flooding is expected across inland portions of Alabama,
central Georgia and upstate South Carolina, and widespread flooding
is possible across western/central North Carolina, and far southeast
Virginia.

2. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
coastline of the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Bay.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue this evening
within portions of the Tropical Storm warning area in southern
Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 31.2N 86.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 31.9N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z 33.2N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 34.2N 81.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#31 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:00 pm

Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
700 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER
EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA...
...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 86.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF DOTHAN ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from the Alabama/Florida border to the
Walton/Bay County Florida line is discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line eastward to Indian Pass
Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sally is
moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a
northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
tonight through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central
Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center
moves farther inland tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a
tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with
isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from
the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama.
Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to
major river flooding, will continue across this region. Additional
rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is possible across the Florida Panhandle
from Tallahassee to the Apalachicola River.

Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast
through Friday:

Southern Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and
widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding.

Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to
moderate river flooding is possible.

Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6
inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding
and widespread minor river flooding is possible.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Florida
Panhandle coast but will continue to recede over the next several
hours.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
warning area this evening.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight across portions of
northern Florida and southern Georgia. The threat of tornadoes will
shift northeastward into parts of eastern Georgia and much of the
Carolinas on Thursday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:39 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sally Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

...SALLY STILL CAUSING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND
WESTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 86.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida
line eastward to Indian Pass Florida is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally
was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 86.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
a northeastward to east-northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected into Friday. On the forecast track, the center
of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central
Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low
on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at http://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the
Southeast through Friday:

Southeast Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated
amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and
widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding.

Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to
moderate river flooding is possible.

Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6
inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding
and widespread minor river flooding is possible.

Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated
amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from the
Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Most
moderate to major river flooding will crest by the weekend, but
rivers will remain elevated.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Florida
Panhandle coast but will continue to recede over the next several
hours.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur overnight across
southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of tornadoes will
shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas
on Thursday.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during
the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Depression Sally Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Although it remains a prodigious rain producer, surface
observations indicate that Sally has weakened to a 30-kt depression
over southeastern Alabama. The cyclone will continue to gradually
spin down over the southeastern United States, and is likely to
become a remnant low pressure system before merging with
a frontal zone near North Carolina on Friday.

The cyclone is moving northeastward near 8 kt. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is expected over the next 36 hours or so
as the system moves to the south of a broad trough over the
northeastern United States. The official track forecast is about
in the middle of the model guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Significant and widespread flooding is expected across inland
portions of Alabama, central Georgia and upstate South Carolina, and
widespread flooding is possible across western/central North
Carolina, and far southeast Virginia. Most widespread moderate to
major river flooding will crest by the weekend, but rivers will
remain elevated across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 31.9N 86.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 32.7N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/1200Z 35.0N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:00 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Sally Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SALLY STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER
EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 85.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MONTGOMERY ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sally
was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 85.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and
a northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected into
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move
across southeastern Alabama this morning, over central Georgia
this afternoon and evening, and move over South Carolina late
tonight into Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Sally is expected to become a remnant low
by tonight or Friday morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Rainfall totals expected as Sally moves across the
Southeast U.S. through Friday:

Central Georgia: Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 3
to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts, on top of 3 to 6 inches
which has already fallen. Widespread flash flooding and minor to
moderate river flooding is likely.

Central to upstate South Carolina: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated
amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to
moderate river flooding is likely.

Western to central North Carolina into south-central and southeast
Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Flash
flooding and widespread minor river flooding is likely.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede through the day
today.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur early this morning
across southern Georgia and northern Florida. The threat of
tornadoes will shift northeastward into eastern Georgia and much of
the Carolinas today and tonight.

SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast
from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana
through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Sally. Future information on this system can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning
at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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