ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

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ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:48 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 33.5W
ABOUT 2030 MI...3265 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 33.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few
days with a slight increase in forward speed early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday
night. A faster rate of strengthening is possible early next week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The tropical wave and associated area of low pressure that NHC has
been tracking since it emerged off of Africa a couple of days ago
has become sufficiently organized to be designated as a tropical
depression. A curved band of deep convection developed early this
morning and persisted just to the west of a well-defined low level
circulation throughout the day. An earlier ASCAT overpass showed
that 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the
circulation, which is the basis for the initial intensity being
set at 30 kt.

The depression has a rather large circulation, with the radius of
maximum winds nearly 100 n mi from the center and the overall wind
field appearing to extend outward over 300 n mi. The environment
surrounding the cyclone over the next 36 h is characterized by
moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear and plenty of warm water
and atmospheric moisture. These factors are supportive of gradual
strengthening, however, due to the large size of the system, it may
take some time for it to consolidate. The NHC intensity forecast
shows only slight strengthening through 36 h as the system
consolidates, and that portion of the forecast is well below the
intensity guidance. By early next week, the wind shear is expected
to decrease to under 10 kt and a faster rate of intensification is
indicated from 36-96 h in anticipation of the cyclone having a
better structure to take advantage of the lower shear. After 96 h
the intensity is held steady as northwesterly shear is forecast to
increase while the system encounters some slightly drier air and
moves over lower oceanic heat content. The NHC intensity forecast
beyond 36 h starts well below most of the guidance, and trends close
to the IVCN/ICON later on in the forecast period.

The depression is moving toward the west-northwest at 8 kt, steered
by a mid-level ridge to its north. This ridge is forecast to build
westward over the next few days, which should result in a continued
general west-northwest motion, perhaps at a slightly faster forward
speed early next week. By the middle of next week, a weakness is
forecast to develop in the ridge, partially due to interaction of
Paulette and a mid- to- upper level trough over the northern
Atlantic at that time, and the cyclone should turn to the northwest
into this weakness. Overall, track guidance from the global and
regional models is in decent agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
TVCN multimodel consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 11.4N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 11.5N 34.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 12.1N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 12.8N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 13.3N 40.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 14.0N 42.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 15.0N 44.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 17.7N 47.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 21.0N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 12, 2020 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 34.6W
ABOUT 1805 MI...2905 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 34.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is anticipated. The system is forecast
to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and it could become a
hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

The depression is poorly organized at this time. A large convective
band wraps around the northern and western portions of the cyclone,
but its center of circulation is exposed and appears to have become
somewhat elongated. Recent ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak
analysis indicate that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.

It will take some time for the depression to get better organized,
and only slight strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 h.
After that time, the cyclone's environment is expected to support
intensification, and the intensity guidance is quite aggressive.
While the exact timing is somewhat uncertain, it is probable that
the system will become a hurricane early next week. The new NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted higher than the previous
advisory beyond 48 h, but it is below or near the model consensus at
all times.

Little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The depression
appears to be moving generally west-northwestward near 9 kt. In
general, the system should continue west-northwestward for the next
couple of days, with some slight fluctuations in its track possible
tonight and tomorrow as the center consolidates. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge is expected to develop by the middle of next week
that could steer the cyclone more toward the northwest. The guidance
is in very good agreement on this general scenario, though
confidence in the forecast will be somewhat low until the system
becomes a little better organized and strengthens. The official
forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 12.3N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 12.9N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 13.5N 40.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 14.1N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 14.8N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 15.9N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 18.5N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:22 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 35.5W
ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 35.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expect over the next several days, and the
system is forecast to become a tropical storm by Tuesday and it
could become a hurricane in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression remains poorly organized and elongated from
northeast-to-southwest. Convection mainly consists of small curved
but fragmented bands in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates remain unchanged as a result, so the initial intensity
will also remain unchanged at 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt. The ridge to the north
and east of the tropical depression is forecast to remain intact
for the next 5 days, keeping the cyclone on a general
west-northwestward track through 72 hours, followed by a
northwestward motion toward the weakness in the ridge on days 4 and
5. The latest NHC guidance remains in very good agreement on this
developing track scenario and, thus, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory track.

Due to the negative influence of the long low-level westerly fetch
associated with the monsoon trough that the cyclone is embedded
within, it will likely another 24 hours or so for the low-level
wind field to become better organized. However, once that occurs,
environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for steady
strengthening on days 2-4, followed by gradual weakening on ay 5
due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory forecast, and
lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 12.2N 35.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 12.6N 36.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 13.7N 41.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 14.4N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 45.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 46.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 21.5N 51.8W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:15 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 36.4W
ABOUT 1680 MI...2705 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 870 MI...1395 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 36.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and
it could strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of
South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Convective banding features are generally limited to the southern
semicircle of the circulation with the center exposed just to the
north. A recent ASCAT pass indicated that the strongest winds--up
to 30 kt--were primarily located in the southerly and southwesterly
monsoonal flow trailing the depression, although some stronger
winds are beginning to develop just west of the center. Light-to-
moderate northerly shear is currently affecting the depression, but
this shear is expected to decrease during the next 24-48 hours. In
addition, global model fields indicate that the cyclone should
become increasingly separated from the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Steady
strengthening is anticipated for much of the forecast period, and
the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA aid and the
IVCN intensity consensus. This new forecast is a little higher
than the previous prediction, especially on days 3 through 5.
There are two main points that suggest this forecast could
potentially go even higher in later forecast cycles: 1. the HWRF
model shows more significant strengthening at the latter part of
the period, bringing the system to major hurricane strength, and 2.
the SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance indicates that there is a
50-50 chance that the system will strengthen by at least 65 kt over
the next 3 days, which is 9-10 times higher than the climatological
mean.

The depression is moving west-northwestward (290/9 kt) to the south
of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
subtropical Atlantic. This feature should continue to drive the
cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days.
After that time, the mid-level high is expected to shift northward
and elongate, and the potentially intensifying hurricane is likely
to acquire more poleward motion, moving northwestward and a little
slower on days 3-5. Most of the track models are clustered close
together, except for the HWRF which has a trajectory farther to the
south and west. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit
westward compared to the previous prediction, close to the
GFS-ECMWF consensus but not as far to the left as the latest TVCA
and HCCA solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 12.3N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 12.8N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 13.3N 40.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 13.7N 43.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 15.3N 46.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 16.3N 48.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 19.0N 51.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 22.0N 53.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:56 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 37.6W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 37.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday,
followed by a slower northwestward motion Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression
is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then will likely
strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of
South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression's center is a little closer to the deep convection
compared to this morning, but the overall structure has not changed
significantly. Based on this morning's ASCAT pass, and recent
Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity
remains 30 kt. The northerly shear over the system has been
analyzed to have decreased since this morning (now around 10 kt),
which is probably why the center is closer to the convection. The
shear is forecast to decrease further, and once the depression
becomes more detached from the ITCZ/monsoon trough, it is expected
to go through a significant phase of strengthening as it heads west
toward higher oceanic heat content and a more unstable atmosphere.
As discussed this morning, the GFS-based SHIPS guidance indicates
that there is a 50-50 chance that the depression will strengthen
by at least 65 kt during the next 3 days, which is 10 times higher
than the climatological mean. And, all three regional hurricane
models (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC), as well as the HCCA aid, show
the cyclone becoming a major hurricane by the end of the forecast
period. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted
upward and now explicitly shows major hurricane strength on days 4
and 5.

The motion remains west-northwestward (290/10 kt), with the
depression located south of a large mid-level high centered over the
central Atlantic. This feature should continue driving the system
westward or west-northwestward for the next 2 days. After that
time, the ridge is expected to shift northward, causing the
potentially strengthening hurricane to move a little slower toward
the northwest. Most of the track models are clustered close
together, although the HWRF remains a southern outlier and the ECMWF
model is a little slower and on the right side of the envelope. The
new NHC track forecast has not moved much from the previous
prediction and now lies closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 12.7N 37.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2020 10:05 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING
A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 39.0W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty
was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 39.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24
km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the
next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by
mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated and the system is forecast to become a
hurricane in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are
expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of
South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little
change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed
that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with
maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more
concentrated to the southwest of the depression's center during the
past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting
organized soon.

As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal
strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together,
all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly
so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a
low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models
explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to
major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the
dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than
that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative.

The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A
large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the
cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After
that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the
strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response.
While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the
dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC
forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: TWENTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#7 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:07 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 40.4W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued
west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two
followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern
quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and
so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial
intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and
satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS
SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named
storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005.

The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical
ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the
ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the
strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the
western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is
general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new
official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down
the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model
tracks.

Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean
temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The
only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions
of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core
convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged
and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week.
Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that
Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make
that forecast at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...TEDDY POISED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 42.8W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1275 MI...2055 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly
slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn
toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is
forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

A timely 1156 UTC ASCAT-A pass was very helpful in locating the
center of Teddy, which was farther south and west than previously
estimated. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is
gradually becoming better organized, with the center located near
the northern edge of a curved convective band. Based on the ASCAT
data and the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB, the
intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 270/12. Despite
the adjustment to the center position, the overall track forecast
reasoning has not changed. Teddy will be steered by a deep-layer
ridge located over the central Atlantic, which should result in a
west-northwestward motion resuming by tonight. The ridge is
forecast to shift eastward with time, and Teddy is forecast to turn
more northwestward in a couple of days around the western edge of
the ridge. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted about a
degree to the left of the previous NHC prediction, largely due to
the adjustment in the initial position, and lies near the
consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope.

Teddy will be moving through a favorable environment for
intensification for the next several days, with SSTs increasing
along the forecast track and shear remaining relatively low. The
new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing
Teddy becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and reaching major hurricane
strength in 4 to 5 days. This forecast is close to IVCN through the
first 48 hours and then trends toward the higher HCCA guidance
after that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 12.8N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 13.2N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 13.9N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 14.7N 48.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 15.7N 49.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 16.9N 51.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 18.3N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 21.0N 54.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...TEDDY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 44.0W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 44.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected tonight through
Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next
several days, and Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday
and could reach major hurricane strength on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Teddy is strengthening this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery
shows a growing convective band south and west of the center and a
CDO feature developing over the estimated low-level center position.
The initial intensity is set to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB.

The environment along Teddy's forecast track features increasing
SSTs and low shear for the next several days, and with the improved
convective structure of the cyclone, steady strengthening is
forecast. The NHC intensity prediction has been increased from the
previous advisory, and shows a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours,
which is supported by the SHIPS model and some of the RII indices.
Beyond that time, Teddy is forecast to reach major hurricane
intensity in about 3 days. The new NHC forecast is near HCCA through
the forecast period.

Microwave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest an initial
motion of 275/12. The track forecast reasoning is similar to that of
the previous advisory. Teddy will initially be steered westward
and then west-northwestward by a deep-layer ridge located over the
central Atlantic. As the ridge shifts eastward through the forecast
period, Teddy is forecast to turn more northwestward as it moves
around the western edge of the ridge. There is a fair amount of
across track spread in the guidance, with the ECMWF on the right
and the GFS and HWRF on the left. Overall the guidance envelope has
shifted to the left since this morning. The new NHC track has
been adjusted in that direction, and lies near or a little to the
right of the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 13.0N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 13.6N 45.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.5N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.4N 49.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 16.6N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 19.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 22.0N 56.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 24.5N 58.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#8 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...TEDDY FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 45.0W
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected overnight through
Tuesday night, followed by a northwestward motion Wednesday and
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several days.
Teddy is expected to become a hurricane Tuesday and could reach
major hurricane strength on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Teddy is displaying some mixed signals this evening. On one hand,
satellite imagery shows an improving cloud pattern, with
increasing central convection and a large curved band on the
southern side of the circulation. The latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak
estimates have increased to 55 kt on this basis. Scatterometer
data, surprisingly, only shows 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed
remains 45 kt as a blend of that data, assuming the typical
undersampling from ASCAT, but there is a fair bit of uncertainty in
the current wind speed. Teddy should have several days in a low or
moderate shear environment over warm waters to intensify. All
guidance responds to this forcing by showing Teddy near major
hurricane strength in a few days, with the biggest disagreement
being how fast it gets there. The new forecast is similar to the
previous one, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance
HCCA.

Teddy is moving about the same as before, or 280/11 kt. No
substantial changes were made to the forecast track with the storm
in a seemingly stable steering current provided by a deep-layer
ridge over the central Atlantic. Teddy should turn
west-northwestward overnight and then northwestward on Wednesday
through the end of the forecast while it moves on the southwestern
flank of the ridge. Model guidance is in excellent agreement, with
only some minor speed differences. The NHC track prediction is
basically on top of the previous one and the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 13.2N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 46.0W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 46.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a
west-northwest to northwest track is anticipated during the next
few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next several
days, and Teddy is likely to become a hurricane late today and
could reach major hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized
overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in
banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt,
a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would
indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm.
While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is
quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or
moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus,
the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a
blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected-
consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for
category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the
guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September
hurricane.

The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt.
Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next
several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic
ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the
end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement,
there's been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due
to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC
track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 13.7N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...TEDDY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 47.0W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady
northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next
several days. Teddy will likely become a hurricane later today or
tonight and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Teddy's structure is slowly improving. Visible and IR imagery
indicate that inner-core convection has increased, despite the
continued presence of dry slots. The latest Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 55 kt.

Teddy is still heading west-northwestward for the moment with a
forward speed estimate of 11 kt. Teddy will likely turn
northwestward today and continue steadily moving northwestward along
the southwest periphery of a ridge over the central Atlantic for the
next several days. In fact, all available guidance indicates that
once it makes that northwestward turn, Teddy will barely deviate
from its heading or forward speed for the rest of the week. The
latest NHC track forecast is virtually identical to the previous
one. The model spread is smaller than usual and confidence in the
track forecast is high.

Teddy's low shear and warm SST environment should be conducive for
further strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely
unchanged. Some dry air in the environment could restrict Teddy's
intensification rate, but is not expected to prevent Teddy from
becoming a hurricane later today or tonight. Continued strengthening
is expected thereafter and Teddy is forecast to become a major
hurricane within the next few days. On the whole, the intensity
guidance is a little lower at the longer-range times, so the NHC
forecast at days 4 and 5 is at the very top end of the guidance. I'd
rather see a more consistent signal from the models before making a
larger change to the forecast, especially given the impressive
depiction of Teddy in the global model forecasts at that time.

The 34 kt wind radii were expanded to the northwest of Teddy based
on data from an 1136 UTC ASCAT-A overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 14.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#9 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:50 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...STEADY TEDDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 47.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 47.9 West. Teddy is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady
northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Teddy could become a
hurricane tonight. Teddy is forecast to be near major hurricane
strength within a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected
to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South
America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Overall, Teddy's organization has continued to slowly improve
during the past several hours. AMSR microwave imagery near 1630 UTC
showed that a low- to mid-level eye feature is beginning to form.
The overall convective pattern has also improved, though not enough
to increase the intensity estimates at this time, which only range
from 45-55 kt. The intensity is therefore held at 55 kt, but it
does appear that some intensification is imminent.

The AMSR image showed indications of a microwave signature commonly
associated with rapid intensification in favorable environments. Low
shear and warm SSTs along the forecast track are certainly
conducive, though dry air continues to be a possible limiting
factor. The dry air is probably the reason that dry slots continue
to occasionally appear in IR imagery near the center of Teddy. Rapid
intensification probabilities are not particularly high; the SHIPS
RI gives a 22 percent chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24
h while DTOPS shows a mere 1 percent chance. The rest of the
intensity models forecast only modest strengthening for the next
couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is at the top of the
intensity guidance for the next 48 h and slightly above all of the
models after that, but I am hesitant to lower it any further at
this time given the recent microwave signature and overall
improvement in Teddy's structure.

In contrast, Teddy's track outlook remains straightforward, and no
changes of note were made to the official forecast. The tropical
storm is turning gradually toward the northwest and should begin
moving in that direction tonight. A ridge over the central Atlantic
should then steer Teddy in that general direction for the rest of
the week. The model spread is still much lower than normal, and
confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.6N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 19.7N 53.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 22.5N 55.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 25.4N 58.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 28.5N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...TEDDY BEARS WATCHING...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 48.3W
ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was
located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 48.3 West. Teddy is
now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Teddy
is expected to become a hurricane overnight. Teddy could then be
near major hurricane strength in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on
Wednesday and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

At a glance, Teddy looks like a hurricane in conventional infrared
satellite imagery. Two hooking convective bands are rotating
around the center, and cold convective tops are becoming more
symmetric within the circulation. Objective intensity estimates
have still struggled to increase for some reason, but a blend of
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support increasing Teddy's
intensity to 60 kt. Overall, the environment looks generally
conducive for strengthening. The main limiting factors would be
moderate southwesterly shear in 2-3 days, paired with a drier
environment with mid-level relative humidity dropping from 55-60
percent to about 40 percent in 3 days. The updated NHC intensity
forecast has not been changed significantly from the previous
prediction mainly to ensure continuity. Nearly all of the
intensity models are below this forecast, and downward intensity
adjustments could be required in later forecasts if Teddy doesn't
show sure signs of significant intensification.

Teddy has turned toward the northwest and slowed down a bit with an
initial motion of 305/8 kt. A mid-tropospheric high pressure area
is expected to be nearly stationary over the central Atlantic for
the entire forecast period, which is likely to keep Teddy on a
constant northwestward heading with only small fluctuations in
forward speed. If I was to look for any outlier among the
tightly clustered track guidance, it would be the ECMWF, which is
slightly off to the west of the main pack of models. The NHC track
forecast is just a little to the west of the TVCA multi-model
consensus aid in deference to the ECMWF, and it's fairly close to
the latest HCCA solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.0N 48.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#10 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:41 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Special Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 48.7W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM AST (0700 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 48.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into the weekend and remain well northeast
of the Lesser Antilles.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Teddy could become a major hurricane
later today or Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America
today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.



Hurricane Teddy Special Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy has rapidly intensified overnight. Satellite images show an
eye has formed, and satellite intensity estimates are between 77-
90 kt. The initial wind speed is set to 80 kt as a blend of these
data. Further strengthening is expected and Teddy could become a
major hurricane later today or Thursday. The intensity forecast
has been raised considerably in the short-term based on current
trends, and could have to revised upward on the regular 5 am
advisory.

No changes to the track forecast are needed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0700Z 15.5N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#11 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:43 am

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY
4 LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 49.0W
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is
forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
few days, and Teddy is likely to become a major hurricane later
today and could reach category 4 strength on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America
today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy continues to quickly intensify. The latest satellite images
shows that a ragged eye is present, although microwave images show
it is closed in the low-levels. Satellite intensity estimates
earlier were between 77- 90 kt, and the initial wind speed is set
to 85 with the increasing organization.

The environment appears to be ripe for rapid intensification with
light shear, warm water, and a solid ring present on overnight
37 GHz microwave data. Thus a 30-kt wind increase will be forecast
for the first 24 hours from the 6Z initial wind speed of 80 kt.
After that time, there could be an increase in shear from the
mid-oceanic trough, which should level off the wind speed, along
with possibly an increase in mid-level dry air. At long range,
Teddy could also be affected by the cold wake from Paulette. The
intensity forecast is also uncertain considering the guidance is
still catching up to the higher current intensity, but most
everything shows a large major hurricane for the bulk of the
forecast period, and so does the official forecast.

Teddy is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-tropospheric
high should steer the hurricane in that general direction and speed
throughout the forecast period until early next week when a turn to
the north-northwest is possible ahead of a mid-latitude trough.
The biggest change to note that guidance has almost unanimously
shifted westward at long range, seemingly due to a stronger central
Atlantic ridge, and the NHC forecast is also moved in that
direction. Unfortunately, this change does increase the threat to
Bermuda, which was just hit by Hurricane Paulette, but remember the
average track error at 5 days is roughly 200 miles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.8N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:01 am

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 775 MI...1245 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 49.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next couple of
days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane by late tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the
Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America
today and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy's overall appearance has changed little over the past several
hours. Microwave and infrared satellite images depict a
well-defined inner core with an eye evident in the microwave
imagery. However, visible imagery reveals that the eye remains
cloud filled. Over the past few hours, the coldest cloud tops and
have become confined to the western portion of the circulation,
which could be the early signs of the cyclone experiencing some
westerly wind shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates
remain unchanged from 6 h ago, and therefore the initial intensity
will remain 85 kt.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional
strengthening over the next 18-24 h, and with the inner-core well
defined, rapid intensification could resume shortly. By 36 h,
increasing westerly wind shear and drier air should limit any
further intensification, and possibly induce some weakening. Later
on in the forecast period, Teddy could encounter some cooler waters
due to upwelling caused by Paulette. This could also attribute to
additional weakening. The latest NHC forecast is largely unchanged
from the previous one, and is on the high end of the guidance. It
should be noted that if the rapid intensification that has paused
recently doe not resume soon, adjustments to the intensity forecast
will be necessary.

Teddy continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. This motion is
forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is
steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in
the forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is
expected to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the
northeastern United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone
to turn north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track
guidance is tightly clustered through day 3, then the spread
increases after that time, likely due to how the models are
handling the approaching trough. The NHC track forecast is close to
the previous one and is near the various multi-model track
consensus aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to
approach to Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on average
5-day track and intensity errors, it is too soon to know what type
of impacts the cyclone could have on the island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.5N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.5N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.0N 52.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 20.4N 53.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 21.9N 55.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 23.5N 56.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 25.1N 58.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 28.3N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 31.7N 64.1W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:00 pm

Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY TAKES A BREAK FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY MORE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 50.8W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or
so, and Teddy is expected become a major hurricane during that time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Recent satellite imagery is suggesting that Teddy is undergoing some
westerly vertical wind shear, as indicated by outflow being more
limited in the western portion of the circulation. The latest
UW-CIMSS shear analysis suggests the magnitude of this shear could
be about 10-15 kt, which could help to explain the lack of increase
in organization of the cyclone today. The most recent Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates provided CI values of 4.5-5.0,
indicating that the initial intensity is still around 85 kt.

The environmental conditions are not forecast to change much for
Teddy over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to move
over warm waters within a somewhat dry atmospheric environment,
while moderate shear is expected to continue due to an upper trough
to its northwest. Based on these only somewhat favorable conditions
for strengthening, along with what we have witnessed with the lack
of intensification today, the NHC intensity forecast over the next
few days is being lowered. Beyond day 3, there is evidence to
suggest that Teddy may move over some cooler waters due to upwelling
caused by Paulette. And, by day 4 global models are forecasting a
further increase in vertical wind shear. These two factors should
cause the cyclone to weaken late in the forecast period. This
updated intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus, HCCA.

Teddy is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. This motion is
forecast to continue for the next few days, as the cyclone is
steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Late in the
forecast period, the portion of the ridge north of Teddy is expected
to erode as a mid-latitude trough digs across the northeastern
United States. This evolution should cause the cyclone to turn
north-northwest and possibly north by day 5. The track guidance is
tightly clustered through day 3, but increases quite a bit after
that time, likely due to how the models are handling the approaching
trough. The latest GFS delays a turn and shows a more westerly
track, with the cyclone southwest of Bermuda by day 5, while the
rest of the global models turn the system north sooner and take the
system just east of Bermuda. The NHC track forecast is close to the
previous one and is near the various multi-model track consensus
aids. On the forecast track, Teddy could make a close to approach to
Bermuda in about 5 days. However, based on the model spread at that
time frame and average track error of about 200 n mi at 120 h, it
is certainly too soon to know what impacts Teddy may have on the
island.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 17.5N 50.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:02 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...TEDDY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 51.5W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 51.5 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Teddy has been a perplexing hurricane thus far. The infrared
satellite presentation appears rather impressive, with the center
embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops as cold
as -85 degrees Celsius. Despite the presentation, however, Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T4.5/77 kt, and
objective estimates range between 70-75 kt. Teddy's initial
intensity is therefore set just above these estimates at 80 kt.

A recent ASCAT pass indicated that Teddy's center is a little
farther to the southwest than previously estimated. However, the
long-term motion remains toward the northwest (315/11 kt). The
track forecast remains straightforward the the next 3 days, with
the guidance in good agreement that a mid-tropospheric high over
the central Atlantic will drive the hurricane northwestward toward
the western Atlantic. There is a little more spread among the
track models on days 4 and 5, related to timing differences on
exactly where and how fast Teddy begins to recurve ahead of an
approaching mid-latitude trough coming from the northeastern United
States. The new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward during
the first 3 days to account for the initial position adjustment,
but otherwise it's still close to the previous prediction even with
the increasing model spread on days 4 and 5.

An upper-level trough situated to the northwest of Teddy is causing
about 10-15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear over the
hurricane, and some model analyses suggest that there could be
stronger shear in a layer below the level of the upper-level
outflow. The deep-layer shear is expected to increase a bit during
the next day or so, but this should be offset by a favorable
thermodynamic environment, allowing for some intensification during
that time. The shear might relax by days 3 and 4, but then the
thermodynamic environment becomes a little less conducive for
strengthening. In particular, Teddy may move over the cold wake
of Hurricane Paulette, and the SHIPS guidance indicates that
relatively warm upper-level temperatures could be a negative
factor. All that said, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the
top end of the guidance envelope, showing Teddy peaking in
intensity in a couple of days and then only gradually weakening
through the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 17.8N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 20.3N 54.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 25.3N 59.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 27.0N 61.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 30.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:59 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...TEDDY STRENGTHENS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 52.3W
ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 52.3 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days, and Teddy could become a major hurricane Thursday night or
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Several passive microwave overpasses have revealed that Teddy has
developed a 25-nmi-wide closed eye, while GOES-16 infrared
satellite data shows significant cooling of the cloud tops
surrounding a ragged eye feature. As a result, satellite intensity
estimates have increased, thus Teddy's intensity has been increased
to 90 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T5.0/90 kt from SAB
and a recent UW-CIMSS adjusted-ADT value of T5.7/105 kt.

The initial motion estimate based on the microwave satellite fixes
is 305/10 kt. As described in previous discussions, the track
forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for
the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic
will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western
Atlantic. There is a little less divergence among the models on
days 4 and 5 then on previous runs, and this difference remains
related timing differences on where and how fast the hurricane
begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in
about 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous
advisory track now that it appears that the models have settled
down, and lies close to the consensus models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.

The overall environmental conditions appear to be conducive for
Teddy to continue to at least gradually strengthen for the next
36-48 hours. However, with sea-surface temperatures expected to be
near 30 deg C in 48-72 hours when the vertical shear is going to be
near zero, the intensity forecast at that time could be too low. For
now, the official intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the
guidance envelope, and shows Teddy's intensity leveling off after 36
hours due to the very dry environment that the hurricane will be
moving through, which could disrupt the inner-core convective
pattern and eye feature.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 18.3N 52.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.5N 53.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.9N 54.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 24.3N 58.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 26.1N 60.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 27.6N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 30.7N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 36.0N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:02 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...TEDDY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 53.0W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1155 MI...1865 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 53.0 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
through tonight. A slow weakening trend is expected to begin over
the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Since the previous advisory, Teddy's satellite appearance has
steadily improved. There is now a ragged warming eye surrounded by a
ring of convection with cloud tops colder than -60 degrees C. Very
recently the objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS
have been rapidly increasing. And although a blend of the 1130 and
1200 UTC Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively,
averaged out to an intensity of about 95 kt, the improved satellite
presentation since that time suggests that the hurricane should have
winds of at least 105 kt, which is the initial intensity for this
advisory, which could even be a little conservative based on the
latest UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON values of 120 and 111 kt,
respectively. There will be NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft inside Teddy later today, which should provide much
more detail on the structure and intensity of Teddy.

The only negative factor for intensification during the next 24 h is
about 10 to 15 kt of vertical wind shear. However, Teddy has been
able to begin the latest burst of intensification despite that
shear. Therefore additional strengthening is anticipated through
this evening, and Teddy is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane
by tonight. The overall environment does not change significantly
for the next copule of days, so other than some fluctuations
intensity such as due to potential eyewall replacement cycles, no
change in strength is indicated during that time. As Teddy continues
moving northwest over the weekend, it is likely to begin to
encounter some of the cooler waters upwelled by Hurricane Paulette
last week. This could cause the cyclone to slowly weaken. By late
this weekend, increasing vertical wind shear should also contribute
to weakening. Due to the fast increase in intensity this morning,
the latest NHC intensity is a bit higher than all of the guidance
for the first 48 h, but the overall intensity trends are closely
mirrored by the various multi-model consensus. Beyond 48 h, the NHC
forecast closely follows the LGEM guidance.

Teddy continues to move northwestward at 10 kt. The track
forecast and reasoning both remain straightforward and unchanged for
the next 72 h. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement that a deep-layer ridge situated over the central Atlantic
will force Teddy on a northwestward track toward the western
Atlantic. There is a little less divergence among the models on
days 4 and 5 then on previous cycles, and these differences are
due to timing differences in where and how fast the hurricane
begins to recurve ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
frontal system moving off the coast of the eastern United States in
about 3 days. The new NHC track forecast is little changed from
the previous one, and is in the middle of the tightly clustered
track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest
approach to Bermuda on Monday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 19.3N 53.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 20.4N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 21.8N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 23.5N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 32.4N 63.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 38.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:28 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...TEDDY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
ABOUT 1070 MI...1725 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional
strengthening is expected tonight, and some fluctuations in
intensity are possible Friday and Saturday. A weakening trend is
expected to begin late this weekend.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Teddy has intensified quickly today, with the cyclone now having a
more symmetrical appearance while the eye has become mostly clear.
The deep convection with cloud tops ranging from -60 to -75 degrees
have surrounded the eye for much of the day, and there are
well-defined outflow channels to the south and east of the
hurricane. Both NOAA and US Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft have spent time investigating Teddy today as it has been
intensifying and have been able to provide very useful data in
determining both the size and strength of the hurricane. The peak
SFMR winds measured by the aircraft this afternoon were 113 kt,
while the peak 700 mb flight-level winds were 130 kt. Based on a
reduction to 117 kt from 700 mb, and assuming some slight
undersampling may be occurring, the initial intensity has been
raised to 120 kt.

The hurricane is expected to remain in an environment of
low-moderate shear while over warm waters for the 48 h or so. And
since the period of rapid strengthening of Teddy appears to be
ongoing, the hurricane is expected to strengthen some more into
tonight. Once this round of intensification completes, there will
likely be some fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement
cycles and other short term changes in structure. After 48 h, the
path of Teddy should take it over some cooler waters caused by
upwelling from Hurricane Paulette last week. This should cause the
cyclone to slowly weaken. By 96 h, vertical wind shear is forecast
to increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
associated frontal boundary. This should hasten the weakening trend
of Teddy. By 120 h, the hurricane is expected to have crossed the 26
degree SST isotherm, and will begin to interact with the
aforementioned mid-latitude system causing it to begin an
extratropical transition that may or may not be completed by the end
of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast has been
increased due to the higher initial intensity, and the forecast
trends fit well with the various intensity consensus and SHIPS
guidance.

Teddy continues its northwestward motion, now at 11 kt. The track
guidance is in very good agreement on a continuation of this motion
for the next 72 h as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge
over the central Atlantic. The model guidance has come into better
agreement on the evolution of the large scale features later on in
the forecast period as the hurricane is expected to recurve ahead of
the approaching mid-latitude trough moving off the coast of the
eastern United States in a few days. The new NHC track forecast is
little changed from the previous one, and is in the middle of the
track guidance. On the forecast track, Teddy will make its closest
approach to Bermuda Sunday night into Monday.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 20.1N 54.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 21.2N 55.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 28.0N 62.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 33.9N 63.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 41.3N 62.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:41 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 54.7W
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 54.7 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
through Friday, with a weakening trend likely to begin this
weekend.

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is
maintaining Category Four intensity. Observations from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the
hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near
120 kt. Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for
the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday.
An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast
of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could
impede strengthening in a couple of days. However, Teddy is likely
to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours,
including the time it passes closest to Bermuda. Some fluctuations
in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that
period.

The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10
kt. Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward
around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably
interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of
Nova Scotia. This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend
somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant
uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time
range. It is also possible that the system will be losing
tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this
remains to be seen.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:41 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...TEDDY REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 55.4W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 55.4 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn to the north by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

Teddy remains a powerful category 4 hurricane with a well-defined
eye and intense eyewall. There have been occasional dry slots
that have eroded some of the convection in the eyewall and rain
bands, but these seem to be transient. The satellite intensity
estimates currently range from 90 kt to 128 kt, and based on a
blend of that data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this
advisory.

The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. Teddy is expected to
continue moving northwestward at about the same forward speed during
the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of
a subtropical high pressure system. By the end of the weekend, when
Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or
north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough
moves closer to the system. However, the trough is expected to cut
off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left early next week and
approach Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly
good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC
track prediction.

The major hurricane will likely maintain its intensity, or
fluctuate in strength, during the next day or so while it remains
in generally favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters,
and a fairly moist air mass. However, the intensity models all
show a slow weakening trend after that likely due to Teddy tracking
over the cool SST wake left behind from Paulette and an increase in
shear by early next week. Teddy is now forecast to transition to
a powerful extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast
period based on the global model guidance. The NHC intensity
forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope, in best
agreement with the LGEM dynamical-statistical model.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are around 40
feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see
Key Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 21.6N 55.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: TEDDY - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:09 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

...POWERFUL TEDDY CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 56.1W
ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. Watches
may be required for Bermuda later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a
turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track,
Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected
during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to
begin late this weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.

SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should
spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020

There was little change to the structure of Teddy since early this
morning up until the past hour or so, when the eye began to
fill in slightly while the cloud tops over the southern portion of
the circulation warmed a bit. However, new convection with very
cold cloud tops near -80 degrees C have developed recently over
the northwestern quadrant, so the cyclone could just be undergoing
a temporary intensity fluctuation that typically occurs in powerful
hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from 102 kt
to 116 kt, and the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt for
this advisory. There will be staggered NOAA and U.S. Air Force
Reserve Hunter aircraft investigating Teddy starting this morning
and continuing into the late afternoon, so they will soon be able to
provide updated details on the latest structure, size, and intensity
of the hurricane.

The major hurricane continues to move northwestward, now at 10 kt.
Teddy is expected to remain on that general course during the next
couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely
be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is
forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the
northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to
cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach
Nova Scotia in 4 to 5 days. The models continue to be in good
agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to
the previous forecast track.

Teddy will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so
while it remains in favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm
waters, and a fairly moist air mass. By late this weekend, the
hurricane is forecast to traverse over cooler waters churned up by
Paulette last week. This should cause a weakening trend to begin.
By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically
increase ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough. This should
not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large
extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed
before the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA through 36
h, and then trends toward the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance
thereafter.

Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum
seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45
feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key
Messages below.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, there is a risk strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda, and watches may be issued
later today or tonight.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States during the next few days. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 22.1N 56.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto
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