ATL: VICKY - Advisories

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ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2020 5:04 am

Tropical Depression Twenty-One Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CVT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 28.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CVT (1000 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Twenty-One was located near latitude 18.5 North,
longitude 28.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near
6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into this
afternoon, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight, with a
west-northwestward motion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening could occur today and tonight, and the
depression could briefly become a tropical storm during that time.
Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, if not sooner, and
continue into Wednesday and Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Beven


Tropical Depression Twenty-One Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

First-light visible satellite imagery indicates that the low
pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago
has continued to become better organized overnight. Scatterometer
surface wind data from around 13/2200 UTC indicated that the
circulation had become better defined, and that surface winds of
25-28 kt existed in the southwestern quadrant. Since then, deep
convection has increased, and it is presumed that the surface winds
and circulation definition have increased in response, which
justifies the initiation of advisories on TD-21.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 355/05 kt. The cyclone
is forecast to gradually move northward today and northwestward
tonight as the depression moves around the eastern end of the
eastern Atlantic/west African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night and
continuing into Wednesday and Thursday, a west-northwestward to
westward motion along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge
is expected. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the
surprisingly tightly packed guidance envelope, and is similar to
the consensus model TVCA.

The depression is expected to be short-lived as a tropical cyclone.
Having said that, there is a narrow window of opportunity today and
tonight for the cyclone to strengthen into a tropical storm before
strong westerly shear in excess of 30 kt is forecast to induce rapid
weakening on Tuesday. The cyclone is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low by Tuesday night, and then dissipate over water on
Friday, if not sooner.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1000Z 18.5N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 19.6N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 20.5N 29.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 21.3N 30.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.9N 32.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z 22.4N 34.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 22.8N 36.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 23.4N 41.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Beven


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES THE TWENTIETH NAMED STORM OF THE 2020
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
...VICKY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 28.5W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 28.5 West. Vicky is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is
forecast to continue into this afternoon. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast tonight, with a west-northwestward motion
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during
the next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday
night and Vicky is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

A METOP A/B ASCAT scatterometer pass over the cyclone showed a large
swath of winds in the northeast quadrant on the order of 35 to 39
kt. Deep convection in that region of the cyclone continues to
increase as well as near the center of circulation. Accordingly,
the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, making this the twentieth
named storm of the season. This should be a short-lived tropical
cyclone, however, as increasing southwesterly shear is expected to
quickly weaken Vicky to a depression in a couple days, and the
system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low Thursday. This
scenario is based on a combination of the global models and the
ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/05 kt. The cyclone
is forecast to move northwestward with some increase in forward
speed during the next 24 hours within the low to mid-level steering
flow produced by the eastern end of the African monsoon trough. By
Tuesday night, Vicky should turn west-northwestward to westward
along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the
various consensus aids and is just to the north of the previous
advisory beyond 36 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.7N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 20.6N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 21.6N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 22.2N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 22.7N 36.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 23.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 23.1N 42.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 29.5W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 29.5 West. Vicky is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued
northwestward motion is expected through early Tuesday, followed by
a gradual turn toward the west by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become a
remnant low during the next day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
800 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020

Vicky is severely sheared by strong upper-level westerly winds. The
initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, but
it is entirely possible the cyclone has weakened since this morning
and all recent intensity estimates are lower. The shear is the main
factor in Vicky's forecast; it is expected to increase substantially
(up to 60 kt in 24 h in GFS-SHIPS diagnostics) and should cause the
cyclone to weaken. The NHC forecast now shows Vicky becoming a
remnant low in 36 hours, and it would not be surprising if it
happens sooner than that given the very hostile environment. After
Vicky loses all of its convection, the dynamical models suggest that
it will take a couple more days for the remnant low to spin down and
open into a trough.

Vicky's movement has been somewhat erratic since it formed, but a
long-term motion estimate is 325/6 kt. A continued northwestward
motion is forecast for the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by a turn
toward the west as Vicky weakens and is increasingly steered by
low-level easterly winds. The NHC track forecast is based on the
TVCN and HCCA consensus aids and is practically on top of the
previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 19.3N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 30.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 21.2N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 22.0N 33.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 35.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 22.9N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 23.0N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 23.1N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#2 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:26 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020

...VICKY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED BUT STILL
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 29.9W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 29.9 West. Vicky is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn
toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is
forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the next 48 hours,
and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low by Wednesday

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky continues to be highly sheared due to strong upper-
tropospheric flow associated with a nearby trough, and its
associated deep convection is confined to a small cluster to the
northeast of the center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago
showed an area of winds to just over 40 kt over the northern
semicircle and, based on sampling limitations, the current intensity
has been adjusted to 45 kt. The storm is not likely to maintain its
intensity, since the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear
over the cyclone will become even stronger during the next day or
so. Therefore steady weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is likely
to become a remnant low in about 36 hours. The official intensity
forecast is near or slightly below the latest model consensus.

Center fixes give a slow northwestward motion, or 315/6 kt. A
narrow and weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Vicky
should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward motion
into early Wednesday. Thereafter, when the system will have
probably have lost most of its deep convection, the shallow cyclone
is likely to move mainly westward following the low-level
environmental winds. The official track forecast is close to
previous one and about in the middle of the guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 19.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...VICKY FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 30.1W
ABOUT 500 MI...800 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 30.1 West. Vicky is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn
toward the west-northwest is expected within the next day or so,
followed by a turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the
next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low
by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky remains sheared this morning with strong upper-level winds
causing any deep convection to be located northeast of the center.
The low-level circulation has also become distorted as well, with
new bursts of convection causing the mean circulation to re-form to
the north. The initial wind speed is kept 45 kt since the system
isn't appreciably different than the last cycle. Models all weaken
the storm during the next couple of days due to rather potent
westerly shear (with 200-mb westerly winds as high as 70 kt
forecast across Vicky's circulation). These extremely harsh
conditions should make the intensity prediction rather simple, and
Vicky is likely to decay into a remnant low within a day or two
and open up into a trough in a few days.

The re-formation of the center leads to an uncertain motion
estimate of 325/8 kt. The storm should turn west-northwestward
later today and westward on Wednesday as it becomes steered by the
low-level subtropical ridge. Little change was made to the
previous forecast, except for a small northward adjustment in the
first day or so of the prediction due to the initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 20.3N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 21.0N 31.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 21.7N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.2N 35.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 22.5N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z 22.5N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 40.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...VICKY HOLDING STEADY AS A TROPICAL STORM...
...WEAKENING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 31.0W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 31.0 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn
toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, followed by a
turn toward the west on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast due to strong upper-level winds during the
next 48 hours, and Vicky is likely to degenerate into remnant low
by Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Although the stiff westerly shear (magnitude of greater than 50 kt)
continues to affect Vicky's vertical structure this morning, a 1107
UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that the cyclone is
maintaining 45-kt sustained winds well to the east-northeast of
the center. Therefore, once again for this advisory, the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt.

The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS intensity models and the deterministic
guidance, including the simulated infrared imagery product, agree
with Vicky weakening to a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipating
by 72 hours due to the persistent strong shear.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8
kt. Vicky is forecast to continue on this general motion through
Wednesday night within the low-level tradewind flow. No
significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the new
NHC forecast is based on the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 20.6N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 21.3N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 21.9N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 22.2N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0000Z 22.2N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#3 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:28 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 32.1W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 32.1 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwestward motion at a slightly slower forecast speed is
forecast tonight and Wednesday, followed by a westward motion
through dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical
depression on Wednesday, weaken to a remnant low Wednesday night,
and dissipate by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky continues to be blasted by around 50 kt of westerly shear,
with deep convection being continually removed from the center.
Overall the coverage and intensity of the deep convection has
decreased since this morning, and the initial intensity has been set
to 40 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates (30-35 kt)
and SATCON (45 kt). The high shear is expected to persist, and that
in combination with marginal SSTs should result in weakening, and
Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in around 36 hours, with
dissipation expected in about 3 days. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to HCCA and the IVCN consensus aids.

The initial motion estimate is a bit faster toward the
west-northwest or 300/10. Vicky should continue west-northwestward
for the next 12 to 24 hours and then turn westward in the low-level
flow before dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope, and has
been adjusted a bit slower toward the latest consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 21.2N 32.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 21.6N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 22.1N 35.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 22.4N 37.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 22.4N 38.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/0600Z 22.2N 40.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...VICKY REFUSES TO WEAKEN DESPITE THE SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 33.1W
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.1 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected overnight, followed by a
westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a west-southwestward
motion by late Thursday.

Satellite-derived winds indicate that xaximum sustained winds are
near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is
still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become
a remannt low on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Vicky provided a surprise this evening, with scatterometer data
showing a solid 45-kt in the northwestern quadrant of the storm.
You would never guess it from the satellite images, which show a
very sheared system that would at best support an 30-35 kt
intensity, as indicated by the latest Dvorak estimates. The initial
wind speed is set to 45 kt, higher than the last time but not really
a true strengthening since conventional satellite data was a bit
deceptive earlier. Despite Vicky holding its own, models are still
showing the strong shear persisting, which should eventually cause
weakening. The cyclone is likely to last longer than previously
anticipated though with some upper-level divergence counteracting
the effects of the shear, but Vicky is forecast gradually lose
strength and decay in a remnant low in a couple of days, similar to
the consensus guidance.

The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the
left of previous, at 290/10. Vicky should gradually turn westward
tomorrow and west-southwestward later this week as it becomes a
shallower cyclone. The new forecast is quite similar to the
previous one, leaning on the northern side of the well-clustered
guidance envelope since Vicky is persisting as a deeper cyclone for
the moment. The only small change is to add a 72-hour forecast
point as the remnants could linger for a while longer.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 21.6N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#4 Postby AJC3 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:57 am

Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 33.9W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward
motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a
west-southwestward motion by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days, and the
system could become a remnant low on Thursday or Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical
storm. The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of
the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical
wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the
earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates.
Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while
traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should
occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model
guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days.
Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but
it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all
of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm
waters.

The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the
left of the previous track at 285/9. Vicky should gradually turn
westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days
when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow.
The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to
be closer to the latest consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 21.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:00 am

Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...VICKY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 34.7W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.7 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward motion
is expected to continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward
motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through
dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is
expected to become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a
remnant low on Friday, and dissipate Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Hostile vertical shear of 50 to 60 kt has finally taken a toll on
Vicky. A 1227 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed peak winds of 35 kt north
of the center, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. The
strong shear is expected to continue while Vicky moves over marginal
26-27C SSTs, so additional weakening is forecast. Vicky should
become a tropical depression in around 24 hours before weakening to
a remnant low in about 2 days, with dissipation expected by day 3.
However, the timing of when organized deep convection will finally
cease is difficult to determine, so its is possible Vicky could
weaken faster than indicated here or hang on a bit longer.

The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky
should continue moving westward for the next day or two before
turning west-southwestward in the low-level flow. The new NHC track
forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the new
multi-model consensus aids.

The ASCAT data were also used to modify the initial 34-kt wind
radii.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 21.5N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:01 pm

Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...VICKY HEADING WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 35.7W
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 35.7 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) , and a westward motion
is expected to continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward
motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through
dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a
tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a remnant low on Friday,
and dissipate Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

There's been little change in Vicky's cloud pattern this afternoon.
What's left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is
displaced well to the east of the center. Cirrus clouds produced by
the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the
west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface
circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this
advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to
the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged.

The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery
reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low
just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to
the south of the cyclone. These upper-level features are
temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern which appears to be
offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit. In any event,
Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to
a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global
models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids.

The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky
should continue moving westward for the next day or two before
turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow. The
new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to
the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:41 pm

000
WTNT31 KNHC 170233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...VICKY SHRINKING AND POISED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 35.8W
ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 35.8 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion
is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a
west-southwestward motion for a day or two after that.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become a
remnant low by late Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

A layer of cirrus clouds are covering the center of Vicky, but those
clouds are associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy. A
combination of outflow from Teddy and an upper-level low to the
north of Vicky is causing very strong westerly winds across the top
of the struggling tropical storm. As a result, Vicky is producing
minimal convection that is displaced to the east of the center.
Recent ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds are still near
35 kt, but Vicky's wind field is becoming smaller and the system is
on the overall decline. There is no indication that the shear will
decrease and Vicky should weaken as a result. The NHC forecast calls
for Vicky to become a remnant low within 24 hours (if not sooner)
and dissipate in a few days.

Vicky is still heading generally westward. The tropical storm will
likely continue westward through tomorrow morning, and then turn
west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow after that for as
long as it lasts. There is little spread in the track guidance and
the NHC forecast is essentially the same as the multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 21.6N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 21.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 19.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:03 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 36.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 36.7 West. Vicky is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to
the west is forecast later today, followed by a west-southwest
motion on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Vicky is forecast to become a tropical
depression later today and a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the outflow of
Hurricane Teddy continues to rip across the circulation of Vicky.
These very hostile winds aloft are causing Vicky to struggle with
maintaining deep convection, which is quite sheared and limited to
the northeastern quadrant. The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 25 to 38 kt, and the initial intensity is held
at a possibly generous 35 kt. Since the shear is expected to
remain strong, Vicky is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
later today, a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate entirely by
the weekend.

The weak storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the
west is expected later today, followed by a west-southwest motion
after that until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days. The
track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 21.9N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:43 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Vicky Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...VICKY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 38.2W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vicky
was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 38.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the west-southwest is expected later today, and that motion
should continue through Friday.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Vicky is
expected to become a remnant low later today. The cyclone is
forecast to dissipate Friday night or early Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Depression Vicky Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

Vicky is feeling the affects of very strong upper-level winds
associated with the outflow of Hurricane Teddy. These winds have
caused the remaining convection to be stripped well away from the
center, and recent ASCAT data indicates that Vicky has weakened to
a tropical depression. The ASCAT data support a peak wind speed
of 30 kt. Vertical wind shear of 40-50 kt is forecast to continue
plaguing Vicky, and the cyclone should continue to weaken and
become a remnant low later today. The global models indicate that
the circulation will open up into a trough within 36 to 48 hours,
and the official forecast calls for dissipation within that time
period.

Now that Vicky has become a vertically shallow cyclone, it has
turned south of due west and is moving 260/12 kt. Vicky or its
remnants should turn west-southwestward later today as it is
steered by the low-level northeasterly flow. The latest NHC track
forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 21.4N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1200Z 20.4N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 19.6N 43.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: VICKY - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:41 pm

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

...VICKY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 39.1W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicky
was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 39.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 12
mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and the
remnant low is forecast to dissipate Friday night or early Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Vicky. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
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