ATL: WILFRED - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: WILFRED - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:43 pm

98L INVEST 200915 0000 8.6N 19.5W ATL 25 1010


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#2 Postby Fancy1001 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:49 pm

Is that you Wilfred.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#3 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:13 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:24 am

This might be the one that escapes low? It seems so weird to imagine the W storm being a Cabo Verde long-tracker, forget some late season transitioning storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#5 Postby Jonny » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:37 am

So...maybe we will be going Greek before the weekend? :wink:

New drinking game: Take a shot every time a cyclone forms off the coast of Africa! 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:52 am

50/70

An area of low pressure has formed from a low-latitude tropical
wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more
concentrated during the past several hours, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while the
system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#7 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:54 am

Wow, below 10 north. If this escapes Teddy's outflow, might have some interesting potential.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#8 Postby Chris90 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:01 am

I’m intrigued by this and Teddy, and to see how they interact. I think 98 may have a bit more potential than it’s getting credit for. I think there’s potential to make it to the Caribbean and possibly have a high ceiling intensity wise. I’m just going to keep watching and see what happens. There’s not much else to do, the models haven’t exactly been doing well this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#9 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:30 am

If this remains south and ends up becoming a Big One, let’s hope 99L doesn’t develop and steal the name Wilfred.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:06 am

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure,
located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde
Islands, gradually continue to become better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#11 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:34 am

As with most waves this season, if it manages to cross the ATL without developing, then it has a chance to be trouble for land later. Eye balling the morning visible, the circulation is taking shape. Could be a TD by late tomorrow. GFS wants to develop a large TUTT (and shearing outflow from Teddy) to the N of 98L which opens it back up into a wave before reaching the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:04 am

98L INVEST 200915 1200 8.9N 20.4W ATL 25 1010
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#13 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:27 am

Looking at ASCAT scans, looks like we have a new TD
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:32 am

Wilfred is probably just around the corner. September is just pumping out storms like there's no tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#15 Postby us89 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:42 am

I'm curious how advisories will be issued for this if it forms. Going by the regular pattern, the advisories for this storm would use the AT2 header - but that header is currently occupied by Paulette. AT3 is open (since Rene is gone) but that's not next in line.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#16 Postby Nuno » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:43 am

Jonny wrote:So...maybe we will be going Greek before the weekend? :wink:

New drinking game: Take a shot every time a cyclone forms off the coast of Africa! 8-)


And to think people thought the MDR wouldn't have an active season...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#17 Postby weeniepatrol » Tue Sep 15, 2020 9:45 am

Nuno wrote:
Jonny wrote:So...maybe we will be going Greek before the weekend? :wink:

New drinking game: Take a shot every time a cyclone forms off the coast of Africa! 8-)


And to think people thought the MDR wouldn't have an active season...


It's be clear for months now that, based on almost every known indicator, anyone who thought that would crash and burn.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#18 Postby us89 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:36 am

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Looking at ASCAT scans, looks like we have a new TD


Circ is still elongated and still not that well-defined on the east side.

Image

NHC will want to see it tighten up, especially on the east side, before initiating any advisories.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#19 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:48 am

us89 wrote:
HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Looking at ASCAT scans, looks like we have a new TD


Circ is still elongated and still not that well-defined on the east side.

https://i.imgur.com/mitifbR.png

NHC will want to see it tighten up, especially on the east side, before initiating any advisories.


That ascat scan is old. The purple numbers represent the time that it scanned. That is from yesterday afternoon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#20 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:50 am

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