ATL: ALPHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: ALPHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:54 am

N of the Azores.

Previous thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121360

AL, 99, 2020091500, , BEST, 0, 470N, 226W, 55, 992, EX, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 60, 140, 1008, 240, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 046,


A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far
northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the
Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during
the next few days where it will encounter warmer waters, which
could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or
subtropical characteristics this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:00 am

Ok Atlantic you can chill now, let the cyclone factory rest for a little while before you burn it out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:02 am

The 55 kts are likely based on a ship report well to the N of the center.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:07 am

This is a potential sleeper...I know some models have shown it for days as it drifted southward. We're literally getting storms out of our ears.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:36 am

If the Atlantic keeps shooting out storms like this, at this rate we’ll break 30 NS by mid or late October. Who’s ready for Hurricane Theta?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby Do_For_Love » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:45 am

what in the world?? it does seem to have a nice spin to it though, lol
Last edited by Do_For_Love on Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:55 am

Anyone know what the farthest-north invest is? This is way out there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:45 am

When I saw the on the NHC map this morning, I thought it was a glitch! :lol:

It reminds me of Vince, Grace, Pablo, and many others that have formed in this area over the years. I will not be surprised if this becomes Wilfred or Alpha. Heck never know this could be Beta for all I know! :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby StPeteMike » Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:56 am

Some models have been forecasting this to get to hurricane strength and make its way towards Portugal. We shall see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby us89 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:49 am

I looked at the ATCF sector file this morning and went "holy crap, we have a new invest". At first I thought it was that GOM disturbance that we've been following for some time. Then I saw the latitude. Depending on what happens to this, could be the 2020 version of 2005's Vince, which made a legitimate landfall on Spain as a tropical depression.

One thing this season has been lacking in compared to the last couple hurricane seasons is a bunch of subtropical depressions and storms in more northern reaches of the Atlantic. Perhaps we will see more of those in the coming months.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:52 am

wrong thread lol
Last edited by HurricaneEnzo on Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby sma10 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:03 am

aspen wrote:If the Atlantic keeps shooting out storms like this, at this rate we’ll break 30 NS by mid or late October. Who’s ready for Hurricane Theta?


I imagine that if we get Zeta, Eta, and Theta as all concurrent threats to land, the world will truly seem like it has gone mad.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:33 am

Just realized where this invest was on the map. This has to be a record for most NE invest in history :lol: 2020 stuff
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:29 pm

2 PM TWO:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far
northeastern Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles northeast of the
Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward during
the next few days where it will encounter warmer oceanic
temperatures, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some
tropical or subtropical characteristics this week. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:45 pm

Looks like Vicky is donating some moisture, how generous
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:12 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:Looks like Vicky is donating some moisture, how generous
https://i.imgur.com/G6xINHa.png


That may be the oomph this system needs. I'd up the probabilities personally...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#17 Postby Kazmit » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:21 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:50 pm

Zeta and theta would be cool just because of their significance to meteorology (vertical vorticity and potential temperature).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby gfsperpendicular » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:39 pm

I know it's a bit (read: a lot) of a long shot, but if this makes landfall in SW Portugal as a TD like many of the models are showing, it wouldn't take much for it to cross over into the Mediterranean sea.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:49 pm

If this system manages to develop, it’s beginning to look like one of the easternmost genesis locations on record! What storm currently holds that record for most north and east?
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