ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:34 am

AL, 90, 2020091606, , BEST, 0, 205N, 950W, 25, 1009, LO,


Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121315
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Leben, was ist das?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:08 am

This could be our next threat toward the US
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:12 am

Up to 20/40

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some
signs of organization Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the low meanders over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:14 am

Truly an absurd WATL year
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:30 am

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:44 am

The Gulf Coast just can't catch a break this year.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:18 am

From the looks of things I think the formation percentages will be upped pretty soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby 3090 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:25 am

It initially went thru SELA and SW Mississippi this past weekend as a tropical disturbance with a lot of tstorms. Round 2 coming, as a bonafide tropical system? :?:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:26 am

After Sally’s poorly modeled intensification and slow movement, I have to believe there’s a chance 90L/Wilfred/Alpha/whatever could stay over water for longer and become yet another Gulf hurricane. The further east it goes before heading back to the Mexican coast, the longer it’ll spend over 30-31C waters with the potential to RI like Katia or Karl.
Last edited by aspen on Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby Ryxn » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:31 am

With this system being Alpha or Beta depending on 99L (or God knows maybe Wilfred if 98L stays disorganized or is a depression for a while), at this rate we'll likely see Gamma (wave behind 98L) and even Delta (low possibly forming near Bahamas) BEFORE October 1, Delta would SMASH the earliest 25th tropical storm by almost 2 months (Gamma on November 15). It would also make September 2020 have a mind-boggling 12 named storms which would smash the current record of 8. Only 4 named storms would need to form October through December for 2020 to break 2005's storm count (and 5 storms for it to top 30 total). Very doable IMHO.

:double: :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:32 am

Those sure are some cold cloud tops! (image taken about 8:30 am Central on the College of DuPage satellite website)

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:36 am

Location: 20.8°N 95.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 nm
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 nm


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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:29 am

Wow, talk about burn out, we all know how things can spin up down here if conditions get right. Wow
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:43 am

If the GFS-Para is right, 90L could spend up to six days in the Gulf before landfall; it doesn’t show landfall until the 22nd.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:45 am

I’m thinking something like Alex 2010 could be very possible out of this. Hopefully it stays weak!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#16 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:55 am

A slow-moving 90L/Wilfred could be more dangerous than a slow-moving Sally, because Sally was over an area of lower OHC. 90L, on the other hand, will be sitting in a region with much higher OHC (possibly up to 100-125 kJ cm-2). This will make it much less prone to upwelling, and SSTs and MPIs are high enough to support one hell of a major hurricane. Only time will tell if other atmospheric conditions will be favorable for intensification.
Image
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:08 am

Definitely keeping an eye on 90L here in Deep South Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#18 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:36 am

Would this be moving into non populated areas of Mexico? I hope?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#19 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:37 am

Very real possibility this could become the storm that takes us to the Greek alphabet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:46 am

This season has really been crazy 2020 is an unbelievable year. I remember when the Gulf went over a decade without a major hurricane landfall 2005-2017.
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