ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

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MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#21 Postby MGC » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:50 am

Looks like it is starting to spin.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#22 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:52 am

Let’s just hope that it goes into non populated areas of Mexico, and that a trough doesn’t dig down and pull it North. That’s the last thing we need!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#23 Postby edu2703 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:57 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:Would this be moving into non populated areas of Mexico? I hope?


The NE coast of Mexico is sparsely populated. The biggest cities in this region are located near the border with US, 22 miles from the coast

Models are showing landfall near Playa Badgad, which population consists of a few dozen people.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#24 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:06 am

You may want to look at the new GFS run.

edu2703 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Would this be moving into non populated areas of Mexico? I hope?


The NE coast of Mexico is sparsely populated. The biggest cities in this region are located near the border with US, 22 miles from the coast

Models are showing landfall near Playa Badgad, which population consists of a few dozen people.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#25 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:15 am

MGC wrote:Looks like it is starting to spin.....MGC


It has actually had good rotation since it was in the Northern GOM. Dry air and shear has kept it in check so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#26 Postby edu2703 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:19 am

Stormcenter wrote:You may want to look at the new GFS run.


That's quite a shift
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#27 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:24 am

N2FSU wrote:New GFShttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200916/d5d816cd07f1566919bdc8d18edcfd27.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


No, the Northern Gulf Coast is closed for the season, they have to make a reservation for another year. On the real though, this season is just crazy and you never know what will happen.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:28 am

This has dangerous potential based on where it is. Much better conditions than Sally had.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#29 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:33 am

Need this to come to southeast TX as something weak. Haven’t had but .70” of rain since July.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#30 Postby TallahasseeMan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:39 am

aspen wrote:A slow-moving 90L/Wilfred could be more dangerous than a slow-moving Sally, because Sally was over an area of lower OHC. 90L, on the other hand, will be sitting in a region with much higher OHC (possibly up to 100-125 kJ cm-2). This will make it much less prone to upwelling, and SSTs and MPIs are high enough to support one hell of a major hurricane. Only time will tell if other atmospheric conditions will be favorable for intensification.
https://i.imgur.com/BCHMLQx.png
https://i.imgur.com/llcAcnY.png
https://i.imgur.com/v9y8UsU.png


As long as 90L stays west of New Orleans, there is a pretty high ceiling when it comes to SST's
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#31 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:41 am

CrazyC83 wrote:This has dangerous potential based on where it is. Much better conditions than Sally had.

And Sally nearly became a major...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#32 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:03 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:This has dangerous potential based on where it is. Much better conditions than Sally had.


As per the norm, I think the timing will be key. Does a trough pick it up and send it north, or does it head into Mexico after meandering with little steering? 2020, man. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#33 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:23 pm

I was just coming to post what I thought was a joke about when we should expect to find the models are completely wrong and find out this is heading the opposite direction from Mexico. The GFS beat me to the punch. The good news is it is quite weak. Less than 5 days out I would normally take that seriously but this year, no way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#34 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:27 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I was just coming to post what I thought was a joke about when we should expect to find the models are completely wrong and find out this is heading the opposite direction from Mexico. The GFS beat me to the punch. The good news is it is quite weak. Less than 5 days out I would normally take that seriously but this year, no way.


Maybe a pro can chime in, but the GFS solution would mean the trough would create shear, keeping it weak as it pulls it north?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#35 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:32 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to
become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#36 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:33 pm

SoupBone wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:I was just coming to post what I thought was a joke about when we should expect to find the models are completely wrong and find out this is heading the opposite direction from Mexico. The GFS beat me to the punch. The good news is it is quite weak. Less than 5 days out I would normally take that seriously but this year, no way.


Maybe a pro can chime in, but the GFS solution would mean the trough would create shear, keeping it weak as it pulls it north?


I am not a pro but this was my assumption as well. It almost looks like it meets up with a front or something.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#37 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:00 pm

ICON has a hurricane heading west into lower TX coast late next Wednesday. UKMET has a TS into NE Mexico next Tuesday. GFS, of course, a TS into SE LA next Tuesday. I like whatever model either doesn't develop it or drives it into southern Mexico.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#38 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:08 pm

Post of the day. :D


wxman57 wrote:ICON has a hurricane heading west into lower TX coast late next Wednesday. UKMET has a TS into NE Mexico next Tuesday. GFS, of course, a TS into SE LA next Tuesday. I like whatever model either doesn't develop it or drives it into southern Mexico.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#39 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:13 pm

Anticyclone right on top of this.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#40 Postby shiny-pebble » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:19 pm

Does anyone know what conditions will look like in the Gulf??

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