ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#41 Postby 3090 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:29 pm

GCANE wrote:Anticyclone right on top of this.

https://i.imgur.com/wqYHqnV.png

Ideal and better actually than Sally had as of now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#42 Postby Uptownmeow » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:44 pm

I’m just leaving my sandbags out until December at this rate.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#43 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:51 pm

Can this season please end already? Man it's been pretty much nonstop activity for months now...

This system looks likely to develop and hang around for a while (what's new?). It should bring a lot of rain to northeast Mexico and south TX. How strong it gets will depend on land interaction, but conditions in the western Gulf are forecast to be favorable for development. No rest for the weary...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#44 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:53 pm

3090 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Anticyclone right on top of this.

https://i.imgur.com/wqYHqnV.png

Ideal and better actually than Sally had as of now.


For sure
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#45 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:53 pm

I'm so damn tired of this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#46 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:54 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Can this season please end already? Man it's been pretty much nonstop activity for months now...

This system looks likely to develop and hang around for a while (what's new?). It should bring a lot of rain to northeast Mexico and south TX. How strong it gets will depend on land interaction, but conditions in the western Gulf are forecast to be favorable for development. No rest for the weary...


Have you looked at the latest Euro? :x
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#47 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:00 pm

SoupBone wrote:I'm so damn tired of this season.

i honestly keep forgetting it's only september 16th with all of this activity.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#48 Postby edu2703 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:00 pm

GFS, EURO and HWRF bring this storm to Louisiana
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#49 Postby Portastorm » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:01 pm

SoupBone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Can this season please end already? Man it's been pretty much nonstop activity for months now...

This system looks likely to develop and hang around for a while (what's new?). It should bring a lot of rain to northeast Mexico and south TX. How strong it gets will depend on land interaction, but conditions in the western Gulf are forecast to be favorable for development. No rest for the weary...


Have you looked at the latest Euro? :x


:uarrow:

SoupBone, you shouldn't be surprised by that. Climatology suggests whatever develops in that area would move more your way than ours (Texas). Then again it's 2020 and I suppose anything is possible.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#50 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:27 pm

Portastorm wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Can this season please end already? Man it's been pretty much nonstop activity for months now...

This system looks likely to develop and hang around for a while (what's new?). It should bring a lot of rain to northeast Mexico and south TX. How strong it gets will depend on land interaction, but conditions in the western Gulf are forecast to be favorable for development. No rest for the weary...


Have you looked at the latest Euro? :x


:uarrow:

SoupBone, you shouldn't be surprised by that. Climatology suggests whatever develops in that area would move more your way than ours (Texas). Then again it's 2020 and I suppose anything is possible.


Not at all surprised, and I'm actually in Texas now. :D

I know this is the time of year we usually get some weak cool fronts. I wonder if that's why the GFS has it moving so fast. Does the cool front move it north toward Louisiana?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#51 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:47 pm

It does have a decent look

Image

I wonder if the HH people are getting sick of the season as well

2. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 17/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 17/1830Z
D. 21.5N 96.0W
E. 17/1930Z TO 17/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 18/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0222A CYCLONE
C. 18/0930Z
D. 21.5N 96.0W
E. 18/1100Z TO 18/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


At least they will find an actual circulation

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#52 Postby panamatropicwatch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:21 pm

Bay of Campeche Buoy reporting 1010mb and falling.
22.124 N 93.941 W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#53 Postby ClarCari » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:28 pm

I could see a tropical depression advisory maybe tonight if these trends continue.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#54 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:29 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I'm so damn tired of this season.

i honestly keep forgetting it's only september 16th with all of this activity.

Not slowing down anytime soon eithet
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#55 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:34 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Bay of Campeche Buoy reporting 1010mb and falling.
22.124 N 93.941 W


Yeah, I was just about to post that in addition to the improved satellite presentation that pressures are falling steadily out there. Could be seeing our next TD developing rather soon. The GOM continues to stay very fertile this season that's for darn sure!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#56 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:39 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Bay of Campeche Buoy reporting 1010mb and falling.
22.124 N 93.941 W


Thanks for posting. Do you possibly have a link? Thanks!

Edit: Is this the one? https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=CDT
Last edited by 'CaneFreak on Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#57 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:40 pm

It's probably going to take a couple of days to spin up, but I don't see why it shouldn't be a storm by Saturday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#58 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:03 pm

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion. Very tricky forecast ahead

[b]For the weekend...models continue to advertise drying behind the
trough and on the front side of the ridge for all but the immediate
coast. This will boost afternoon temperatures back into the lower
90s for many with mainly isolated showers/few storms favoring I-69C
and points east...though it`s entirely possible that much of the RGV
is largely rain-free. For the beaches...the difficult weather begins
perhaps Saturday but more likely Sunday as Southwest Gulf system
begins to develop and both winds and waves build. Tidal run-up may
start on Sunday as well.

For Monday through Wednesday all eyes will be on the southwest Gulf.
Models remain in different camps on evolution of the system
particularly where it might go. But all are in agreement that a
tropical cyclone is likely (see the NHC five day outlook) and
climatology and consensus of the better models suggest it will stay
closer to the coast than eject northeast...since the developing
upper ridge develops overtop of the system. Only the GFS
deterministic pulls the system northeastward...but it`s about 10
days to early based on history and the strength of the upper trough
to bite on this solution just yet.


The arriving ECMWF is in this camps...as are the UKMET and
Canadian...and WPC has followed suit with rather prodigious QPF
reaching eastern Cameron but potentially dumping significant rain as
far west as the mid Valley beginning late Sunday and peaking Monday
or Tuesday. For now...have rolled "likely" rain chances spreading
into these regions with increasing wind and waves on the coast.
Minor coastal flooding is assured...the question will be how far
into the dunes will it get. On all of this...stay tuned.
[/b]
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#59 Postby MetroMike » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:44 pm

This one could cause further gnashing of our teeth by slowing/stalling out also, seems like a 2020 trend.
Weak steering currents abound.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#60 Postby lrak » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:47 pm

What is the convection east of Tampico? Is that a ML spin?

It looks like a low level spin to me.
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