ATL: BETA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120780
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#41 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:37 pm

144 to 168 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120780
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#42 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:44 pm

168-192.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120780
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#43 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:45 pm

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120780
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#44 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:50 pm

216 hours.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8749
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#45 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:51 pm

GFS spins it up Friday at the bottom of a Rossby Wave under an area of very divergent UL winds.
Rossby Wave is forecast to retreat north and could pull the disturbance with it as a possible 355K PV couplet.
ARWB would be to the west and would move east.

How an UL vort gets pulled down to the surface will depend on how much helicity there will be with possible towers firing around this.
If it does get pulled down, it will likely be structured as a more classical warm core.
It would then be susceptible to shear.
Will then have to see how the Rossby Wave is positioned then and if this will then be under the ARWB.



Image

Image

Image

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 120780
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#46 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:58 pm

12z Euro ends.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

stormlover2013
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Aug 22, 2013 12:06 pm
Location: Lumberton, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#47 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:58 pm

i will just wait till it develops then watch lol models haven't been good till 2 days out anyways lol
0 likes   

TallahasseeMan
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#48 Postby TallahasseeMan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:59 pm

Here we go again...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes   
Direct hit: Francis '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05 Hermine '16 Michael '18

Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17

GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8749
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#49 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:07 pm

Very tricky intensity forecasting.
Not just with the Rossby Wave 355K PV coupling but also with dry air and high TPW.
Could it fire along a dry line?
Would it be able to pull high TPW air from the EPAC?
It could be one for Bones or could be one for the record books.
I wouldn't even venture a guess at this point.

Image
0 likes   

FixySLN
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 123
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:22 pm
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#50 Postby FixySLN » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:09 pm

Need a break.
5 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2685
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#51 Postby Wx_Warrior » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:10 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:i will just wait till it develops then watch lol models haven't been good till 2 days out anyways lol


Truth. 100%
0 likes   

St0rmTh0r
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 270
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2020 8:04 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#52 Postby St0rmTh0r » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:28 pm

Wow man the Gulf throwing a hurricane party this year!
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4025
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#53 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:50 pm

GCANE wrote:Very tricky intensity forecasting.
Not just with the Rossby Wave 355K PV coupling but also with dry air and high TPW.
Could it fire along a dry line?
Would it be able to pull high TPW air from the EPAC?
It could be one for Bones or could be one for the record books.
I wouldn't even venture a guess at this point.

https://i.imgur.com/Pqr6xEm.png


Good questions what about the ridging to the north?
0 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2163
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#54 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:51 pm

The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?
0 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4025
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#55 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:59 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?



The mid level trough that is already drying up Mobile bay would not stick around for more than two or three days. Sounding like a missed trough solution with a stronger system till the next trough.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2228
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#56 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:00 pm

BigB0882 wrote:The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?


If you look at the end of the HWRF, it hits Western/Central Louisiana, then scrapes across the Louisiana coast over Houston, then heads southwest. Then the model ends, kind of appearing like it would re-emerge over the GoM. It's nutty.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2593
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#57 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:03 pm

12Z EPS really lights up the Gulf!
0 likes   

BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2163
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#58 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:04 pm

SoupBone wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?


If you look at the end of the HWRF, it hits Western/Central Louisiana, then scrapes across the Louisiana coast over Houston, then heads southwest. Then the model ends, kind of appearing like it would re-emerge over the GoM. It's nutty.


Yes, but what is the time line? Closer to GFS or EURO? And I’m only talking about first landfall. How many days does HWRF take to get to Louisiana?

I am on my phone and not all images show up.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2228
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#59 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:08 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?


If you look at the end of the HWRF, it hits Western/Central Louisiana, then scrapes across the Louisiana coast over Houston, then heads southwest. Then the model ends, kind of appearing like it would re-emerge over the GoM. It's nutty.


Yes, but what is the time line? Closer to GFS or EURO? And I’m only talking about first landfall. How many days does HWRF take to get to Louisiana?

I am on my phone and not all images show up.



Pretty much in line with the GFS, with a landfall this Sunday.

GFS on the left, HWRF on the right.

Image
Last edited by SoupBone on Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TallahasseeMan
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 70
Joined: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#60 Postby TallahasseeMan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:10 pm

chris_fit wrote:12Z EPS really lights up the Gulf!

Could you post it?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
1 likes   
Direct hit: Francis '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05 Hermine '16 Michael '18

Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest