ATL: BETA - Models

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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#61 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:14 pm

TallahasseeMan wrote:
chris_fit wrote:12Z EPS really lights up the Gulf!

Could you post it?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#62 Postby tomatkins » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:21 pm

BigB0882 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:The Euro and GFS in agreement on track but the GFS takes 4 days and the Euro 10. It would take one huge coincidence for them to have the same track that many days apart. I’m leaning towards ignoring the Euro for now, it has just been so bad lately.

I haven’t seen any images for the end of the HWRF run. How many days until landfall on it?


If you look at the end of the HWRF, it hits Western/Central Louisiana, then scrapes across the Louisiana coast over Houston, then heads southwest. Then the model ends, kind of appearing like it would re-emerge over the GoM. It's nutty.


Yes, but what is the time line? Closer to GFS or EURO? And I’m only talking about first landfall. How many days does HWRF take to get to Louisiana?

I am on my phone and not all images show up.

First landfall is Sunday morning around Pecan Island, LA. Rides the coast westward for the rest of the run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#63 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:29 pm

ICON 180 hour

Stays pinned down in the W GOM and develops this into a strong Cat 2 or possible major just east of Brownsville, TX

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#64 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:16 pm

On the first ICON run the gap between the 1014 isobar and the 1012 is as big as Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#65 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:15 pm

GFS blazes a path to Louisiana, maybe Mississippi as a sloppy mess.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#66 Postby SouthFLTropics » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:20 pm

GFS Para... Ensuring that no part of the Gulf Coast from Brownsville to Pensacola gets through 2020 without being affected. Just hangs around to hour 276 pinballing and painting the Texas coast.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#67 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:56 pm

18Z GFS looking clueless regarding the development prospects of 90L, which fits with it's handling of most GOM systems this year. Shows a weak bit of spin, but fails to do anything with it. Considering that conditions appear very favorable, I am bulling on development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#68 Postby Weather Dude » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:58 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:18Z GFS looking clueless regarding the development prospects of 90L, which fits with it's handling of most GOM systems this year. Shows a weak bit of spin, but fails to do anything with it. Considering that conditions appear very favorable, I am bulling on development.

IMO this could (and probably will unfortunately) be a similar situation to Sally where it catches someone off-guard
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#69 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:05 pm

So models are showing either going towards New Orleans and then turning to Vermillion Bay, or going towards Sabine Pass and then turning to Vermillion Bay. A couple saying it will stay down where it is. The odds currently is for Vermillion Bay to be a popular destination as of right now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#70 Postby StAuggy » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:44 pm

Have any storms formed near 90L’s location and then headed NE into FL? Just wondering if historically there has ever been a west to east threat across the entire gulf rather than coming up from the western Caribbean or between Cuba and Yucatan.
Last edited by StAuggy on Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#71 Postby Astromanía » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:44 pm

I'm in danger?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#72 Postby lrak » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:51 pm

Astromanía wrote:I'm in danger?


I feel the same way sometimes. UGH!!! To "HECT" with surf...go away storm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#73 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:04 pm

18z HWRF has an intensifying TS heading for S Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#74 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:22 pm

That’s probably good news for S.Tx. Those early
tracks rarely pan out,

supercane4867 wrote:18z HWRF has an intensifying TS heading for S Texas coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#75 Postby Kazmit » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:45 pm

StAuggy wrote:Have any storms formed near 90L’s location and then headed NE into FL? Just wondering if historically there has ever been a west to east threat across the entire gulf rather than coming up from the western Caribbean or between Cuba and Yucatan.

Maybe with an October-like trough setup.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#76 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:45 pm

18zHWRF forecast valid for Monday Evening

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#77 Postby SoupBone » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:16 pm

GFS sends it further east on Sunday, but still on the tip of Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#78 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:45 pm

ICON runs the TX Coast like the earlier GFS-para. CMC landfalls NE Mexico. Nothing at 00z close so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#79 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:05 am

00z Euro.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

#80 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:06 am

cycloneye wrote:00z Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/f3sDQRU.gif


Wow...another SE LA solution. The north-central Gulf certainly does seem to be one of the hot spots this year. New Orleans caught a break with the initial consensus on Sally not panning out. We'll see if they can get that lucky again.

Also...986 MB is a strong solution by Euro standards, especially for a still-formative invest/TD.
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