ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm

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ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:40 am

AL, 94, 2020101612, , BEST, 0, 311N, 542W, 20, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 062, SPAWNINVEST, al792020 to al942020
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#2 Postby plasticup » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:46 am

Oh boy, our fifth tropical threat of the year! Some models showing a hurricane which is interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:54 am

This already has the look of a disturbance that’ll develop soon. Hopefully it stays away from land and becomes a cool long-tracking mid-latitude hurricane like Epsilon ‘05. It could be a decent ACE generator depending on how strong it gets.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:25 am

Just a thought... None of the 94Ls have developed this year... But I think this one will end that streak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:29 am

Visible Real Earth loop shows it is comming together nicely.

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... HyT53X_Kk#
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby cainjamin » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:43 am

Looking really good this morning. Kind of looks like Andrea from last year already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:04 am

Based on how good this is looking and the increased model support, this could be upgraded to something like 40/70 for the 2pm TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby JRD » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:42 am

The precipitation and cloudiness are concentrated in its northern and eastern flanks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:47 am

cainjamin wrote:Looking really good this morning. Kind of looks like Andrea from last year already.


That may be the biggest compliment Andrea ever got. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:01 pm

I'd up the numbers quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:35 pm

Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure
system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is
continuing to become better organized, and satellite wind data
indicates that the circulation has become somewhat better defined.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a
subtropical or tropical depression could form during the next
few days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:45 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:24 pm

This looks like it’s on the cusp of being classified. Since the odds only went up to 40/60 at 2pm and 94L is looking super close to becoming Epsilon, perhaps the NHC bumps up its odds to 70/90 at 8pm and either initiates advisories at 11pm, or bumps it to 90/90 at 2am and waits until 5am tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:07 pm

Seems to be closed or close to it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby plasticup » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:08 pm

Looks a lot better than 40/60 to me. It predict those numbers are higher again at 11pm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:09 pm

If this was close to land, I'd be willing to bring out advisories now. However, since this is no threat to land, there is no reason to rush until it is crystal clear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:24 pm

The system is wrapping wround the center when I saw the Windy.com satellite at 4, it's looking better than this morning (8:20 AM). The GFS model is still on the Gyre in the SW Caribbean, the latest pressure on the gyre that is expected to develop is 940 over Cuba.
[img]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/%20INVEST%2094L%20at%204PM%20CDT.png[/img]
The GFS model is also showing Future 95L in the Caribbean.
[img]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/2%20systems%20possible.png[/img]
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:25 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The system is wrapping wround the center when I saw the Windy.com satellite at 4, it's looking better than this morning (8:20 AM). The GFS model is still on the Gyre in the SW Caribbean, the latest pressure on the gyre that is expected to develop is 940 over Cuba.
[url]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/%20INVEST%2094L%20at%204PM%20CDT.png[/url]
The GFS model is also showing Future 95L in the Caribbean.
[url]externalfile:drive-eeb79cc2d86b751497e68dea676378dabbdd9988/root/2%20systems%20possible.png[/url]



Well, I would like to have images here. . . (They are very useful!)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:27 pm

aspen wrote:Seems to be closed or close to it.
https://i.imgur.com/kyAWVzF.png

It does look like it is closed
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:29 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If this was close to land, I'd be willing to bring out advisories now. However, since this is no threat to land, there is no reason to rush until it is crystal clear.

Or with Recon, Andrea would not have been named without Recon in May 2019.
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