ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[Ubuntwo]

100/100, special advisory incoming per the latest TWO.

[plasticup]

TD27 now, and it does look really good

[Buck]

Very curious to see how long this thing will meander and drift and what path it will take.

[chaser1]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 55.5W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INC

[Hypercane_Kyle]

75 knot peak

[plasticup]

Fun.

[chaser1]

Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
800 AM AST Mon Oct 19 2020

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become significantly better organized
overnight. The low-level center is located near the western edge of
the convection, but the system has enough organization to be
declared a tropical cyclone. Therefore, advisories are being
initiated at this time. The system appears to be near
tropical-storm strength, but since earlier classifications were just
below that intensity the system is being started as a 30-kt tropical
depression. The system appears more tropical than subtropical
since it is no longer co-located with an upper-level low and it
appears to have a fairly small radius of maximum winds. Therefore,
it has been designated a tropical cyclone. Scatterometer data
later this morning should provide a better assessment of the
system's intensity. The depression is located over SSTs over 27-28
degrees Celsius and within an area of moderate westerly shear.
These conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the
next day or so. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease
and continued strengthen is anticipated. The NHC intensity
forecasts calls for the system to become a hurricane within 72
hours, and is in best agreement with the HCCA and ICON intensity
consensus models.

The depression is located in an area of weak steering currents near
the base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward
from the northeastern Atlantic. As a result, little net motion is
expected through tonight. A mid- to upper-level ridge is forecast
to build over the western and central Atlantic to the north of the
system by midweek. As the ridge slides eastward later this week,
the cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward at a
faster rate of speed. This motion will bring the system close to
Bermuda by late week and the interests on that island should
closely monitor the progress of the cyclone. The dynamical models
are in relatively good agreement on the overall scenario and the
NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.

[Iceresistance]

Here we go! It's now TD 27

[plasticup]

In the cone for the fifth time this season

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1318166493129887745

[cycloneye]

Epsilon at 11 AM

AL, 27, 2020101912, , BEST, 0, 257N, 553W, 35, 1000, TS

[Buck]

How many late October and later storms has Bermuda gotten?

[ElectricStorm]

Wow this looks really good right now, ramping up quickly out there, hello Epsilon

[Hurricanehink]

How many late October and later storms has Bermuda gotten?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bermuda_hurricanes- nine November storms (including a hurricane passing nearby in 1932), with some occasional late October storms.

[plasticup]

How many late October and later storms has Bermuda gotten?

Late Sept/early Oct is the peak. Late October is not that unusual.

[Iceresistance]

In the cone for the fifth time this season

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT27/refresh/AL272020_wind_probs_34_F120+png/115603.png

And hurricane force winds are possible in Bermuda as well!

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1318166493129887745

Has there even been more than one 26th named storm before?

[aspen]

If this becomes a Category 2 or maybe even a Category 3, Epsilon could end up as a decent ACE maker, generating around 10 ACE. It could remain a TC for up to a week or more.

[Iceresistance]

27 to become Epsilon later today & hurricane by Thursday
INIT 19/1200Z 25.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 25.8N 55.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 26.0N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 26.9N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 28.0N 57.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 28.6N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 29.5N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 31.7N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 33.5N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH

NOTE: This is from the NHC, this forecast will change. Do not use this to make decisions.

[Iceresistance]

Epsilon at 11 AM

AL, 27, 2020101912, , BEST, 0, 257N, 553W, 35, 1000, TS

I would not be suprised if 27 is named at Noon.
The GOES Geocolor is agreeing with 27 as a Depression, but the latest frames is showing convection wrapping around the center of 27, might turn Subtropical for a little while before going into a hurricane.