ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[JRD]

27's got a moderate warm core, which further supports its classification as tropical instead of subtropical.

[aspen]

Epsilon has returned and is poised to become another wacky long tracking mid-latitude hurricane. SHIPS shows a significant decrease in shear within 24-36 hours, so Epsilon could potentially become a hurricane much sooner while it’s still over SSTs of 28-28.5C. A Cat 2 seems decently likely.

[JRD]

So, 27's now Epsilon. The earlier comment about 27 applies to Epsilon.

[Iceresistance]

BREAKING
TS Epsilon has formed SE of Bremuda, not moving much right now, but here is the intensity forecast from the NHC. DO NOT USE THIS TO MAKE DESCISIONS
35 KT 40 MPH
12H 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 75 KT 85 MPH Closest approach to Bermuda
120H 80 KT 90 MPH

[Iceresistance]

Epsilon has returned and is poised to become another wacky long tracking mid-latitude hurricane. SHIPS shows a significant decrease in shear within 24-36 hours, so Epsilon could potentially become a hurricane much sooner while it’s still over SSTs of 28-28.5C. A Cat 2 seems decently likely.

The NHC said 90 mph at forecast hour 120

[MarioProtVI]

NHC admits 80 kt may be a bit low.

The NHC forecast is a bit on the
conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity
consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward
adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent
advisories.

[Iceresistance]

NHC admits 80 kt may be a bit low.

The NHC forecast is a bit on the
conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity
consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward
adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent
advisories.

Possible rapid deepening?

[aspen]

Epsilon has returned and is poised to become another wacky long tracking mid-latitude hurricane. SHIPS shows a significant decrease in shear within 24-36 hours, so Epsilon could potentially become a hurricane much sooner while it’s still over SSTs of 28-28.5C. A Cat 2 seems decently likely.

The NHC said 90 mph at forecast hour 120

Yes, but as Mario pointed out, the NHC mentioned they may have to up Epsilon’s peak in future advisories because of the decreasing shear.

[plasticup]

NHC admits 80 kt may be a bit low.

The NHC forecast is a bit on the
conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity
consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward
adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent
advisories.

Fortunately there is starting to be better agreement on the storm passing east of the island

[Iceresistance]

Epsilon has returned and is poised to become another wacky long tracking mid-latitude hurricane. SHIPS shows a significant decrease in shear within 24-36 hours, so Epsilon could potentially become a hurricane much sooner while it’s still over SSTs of 28-28.5C. A Cat 2 seems decently likely.

The NHC said 90 mph at forecast hour 120

Yes, but as Mario pointed out, the NHC mentioned they may have to up Epsilon’s peak in future advisories because of the decreasing shear.

The Wind Shear got lower than expected!?

[aspen]

The NHC said 90 mph at forecast hour 120

Yes, but as Mario pointed out, the NHC mentioned they may have to up Epsilon’s peak in future advisories because of the decreasing shear.

The Wind Shear got lower than expected!?

Shear will be moderate for some time before lowering and allowing Epsilon to strengthen. SHIPS shows 20+ kt right now, but it drops to 10 kt or less tomorrow and remains below 15 kt for like two days or more.

[Iceresistance]

NHC admits 80 kt may be a bit low.

The NHC forecast is a bit on the
conservative side for now, and lies just above the intensity
consensus aids. Given the expected decrease in shear, some upward
adjustment in the intensity forecast may be required in subsequent
advisories.

Fortunately there is starting to be better agreement on the storm passing east of the island

Newest GFS model run is showing 978 MB at it's closest approach to the east

[Iceresistance]

NHC admits 80 kt may be a bit low.

Fortunately there is starting to be better agreement on the storm passing east of the island

Newest GFS model run is showing 973 MB at it's closest approach to the northeast. Then 971 MB to the North of the Island before turning NE.

[ElectricStorm]

Call me crazy but based on the latest model runs and the forecast of decreasing shear, I think Epsilon could very well make a run for major status.

[plasticup]

Call me crazy but based on the latest model runs and the forecast of decreasing shear, I think Epsilon could very well make a run for major status.

Any other year I would call you crazy, but 2020 be wild.

[gfsperpendicular]

BREAKING
here is the intensity forecast from the NHC. DO NOT USE THIS TO MAKE DESCISIONS

I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use the NHC forecast to make decisions, if not that, then what?

[Iceresistance]

BREAKING
here is the intensity forecast from the NHC. DO NOT USE THIS TO MAKE DESCISIONS

I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use the NHC forecast to make decisions, if not that, then what?

You should make decisions only if the intensity is certain.

[Iceresistance]

Call me crazy but based on the latest model runs and the forecast of decreasing shear, I think Epsilon could very well make a run for major status.

Newest GFS model shows 971 MB & at least 110 mph

[Iceresistance]

Call me crazy but based on the latest model runs and the forecast of decreasing shear, I think Epsilon could very well make a run for major status.

Newest GFS model shows 968 MB & 100 mph

[Iceresistance]

Yes, but as Mario pointed out, the NHC mentioned they may have to up Epsilon’s peak in future advisories because of the decreasing shear.

The Wind Shear got lower than expected!?

Shear will be moderate for some time before lowering and allowing Epsilon to strengthen. SHIPS shows 20+ kt right now, but it drops to 10 kt or less tomorrow and remains below 15 kt for like two days or more.

One model called for 3 knots at the lowest, the storm has a chance to explode into a strong hurricane.