ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

[Ubuntwo]

BREAKING
here is the intensity forecast from the NHC. DO NOT USE THIS TO MAKE DESCISIONS

I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use the NHC forecast to make decisions, if not that, then what?

You should make decisions only if the intensity is certain.

Intensity forecasts are *never* certain, that's kinda the point of their messaging. They're still the best resource available for decision making.

[ElectricStorm]

BREAKING
here is the intensity forecast from the NHC. DO NOT USE THIS TO MAKE DESCISIONS

I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use the NHC forecast to make decisions, if not that, then what?

You should make decisions only if the intensity is certain.

NHC is the official information so that is what you should go by. And intensity is very rarely certain as they usually state in their discussions

[ElectricStorm]

Remnants of Epsilon on tropical tidbits... That's got to be wrong, right?

[aspen]

Remnants of Epsilon on tropical tidbits... That's got to be wrong, right?

Definitely. This is still a TC, and convection is now covering the CoC better than before.

[ElectricStorm]

Remnants of Epsilon on tropical tidbits... That's got to be wrong, right?

Definitely. This is still a TC, and convection is now covering the CoC better than before.

Yeah that's what I see too, looks like someone made a typo in the files lol... Oops

[aspen]

Looks like there's a dry slot but there has been some more convection firing over the CoC.

[Iceresistance]

I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use the NHC forecast to make decisions, if not that, then what?

You should make decisions only if the intensity is certain.

Intensity forecasts are *never* certain, that's kinda the point of their messaging. They're still the best resource available for decision making.

True

[Iceresistance]

I'm pretty sure you're supposed to use the NHC forecast to make decisions, if not that, then what?

You should make decisions only if the intensity is certain.

NHC is the official information so that is what you should go by. And intensity is very rarely certain as they usually state in their discussions

Very true, tropical cyclones can explosively intensify just before landfall. (Charley 2004)

[ElectricStorm]

You should make decisions only if the intensity is certain.

NHC is the official information so that is what you should go by. And intensity is very rarely certain as they usually state in their discussions

Very true, tropical cyclones can explosively intensify just before landfall. (Charley 2004)

Not just before landfall lol. They can strengthen or weaken unexpectedly anywhere

[Iceresistance]

NHC is the official information so that is what you should go by. And intensity is very rarely certain as they usually state in their discussions

Very true, tropical cyclones can explosively intensify just before landfall. (Charley 2004)

Not just before landfall lol. They can strengthen or weaken unexpectedly anywhere

Marco 2020 weakened faster than expected, Hurricane Leslie in 2018 was a wacko storm.

[Iceresistance]

Looks like there's a dry slot but there has been some more convection firing over the CoC.
https://i.imgur.com/63uGAxH.png

This looks like more of a Subtropical Storm.

[ElectricStorm]

Very true, tropical cyclones can explosively intensify just before landfall. (Charley 2004)

Not just before landfall lol. They can strengthen or weaken unexpectedly anywhere

Marco 2020 weakened faster than expected, Hurricane Leslie in 2018 was a wacko storm.

The ultimate example is 5 years ago tomorrow, TD20-E formed in the EPAC, the initial forecast called for a 100mph Cat 2 peak before landfall in Mexico, the rest is history. That happened only a couple months after I started tracking the tropics so watching that unfold was pretty insane.

Anyway back to Epsilon, convection looks to be firing again on the west side

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like there's a dry slot but there has been some more convection firing over the CoC.
https://i.imgur.com/63uGAxH.png

This looks like more of a Subtropical Storm.

The circulation is clearly very tight and well-defined, usually STCs have more broad circulations with displaced wind maxes.

[Iceresistance]

Not just before landfall lol. They can strengthen or weaken unexpectedly anywhere

Marco 2020 weakened faster than expected, Hurricane Leslie in 2018 was a wacko storm.

The ultimate example is 5 years ago tomorrow, TD20-E formed in the EPAC, the initial forecast called for a 100mph Cat 2 peak before landfall in Mexico, the rest is history. That happened only a couple months after I started tracking the tropics so watching that unfold was pretty insane.

Anyway back to Epsilon, convection looks to be firing again on the west side

Me thinking about this storm make me feel stressed out. (I started tracking the tropical in June 2015.)

[Iceresistance]

Looks like there's a dry slot but there has been some more convection firing over the CoC.
https://i.imgur.com/63uGAxH.png

This looks like more of a Subtropical Storm.

The circulation is clearly very tight and well-defined, usually STCs have more broad circulations with displaced wind maxes.

True that, the system is starting to look like a TS because there is convection blowing up the the west side of the circulation.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Epsilon has a tenacious LLC. It is really ripping right now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[ElectricStorm]

Marco 2020 weakened faster than expected, Hurricane Leslie in 2018 was a wacko storm.

The ultimate example is 5 years ago tomorrow, TD20-E formed in the EPAC, the initial forecast called for a 100mph Cat 2 peak before landfall in Mexico, the rest is history. That happened only a couple months after I started tracking the tropics so watching that unfold was pretty insane.

Anyway back to Epsilon, convection looks to be firing again on the west side

Me thinking about this storm make me feel stressed out. (I started tracking the tropical in June 2015.)

That's about the same time I started too. Can't believe it's already been 5 years!

[aspen]

The ultimate example is 5 years ago tomorrow, TD20-E formed in the EPAC, the initial forecast called for a 100mph Cat 2 peak before landfall in Mexico, the rest is history. That happened only a couple months after I started tracking the tropics so watching that unfold was pretty insane.

Anyway back to Epsilon, convection looks to be firing again on the west side

Me thinking about this storm make me feel stressed out. (I started tracking the tropical in June 2015.)

That's about the same time I started too. Can't believe it's already been 5 years!

I started in the worst year possible: 2013. Hurricane Sandy was what got me interested in meteorology. However, I was pretty on-and-off when it came to tracking until late 2015 with Hurricane Joaquin.

Back to Epsilon, the experimental satellite estimate puts it at 40 kt. Let’s see if the 18z best track agrees.

[ElectricStorm]

Me thinking about this storm make me feel stressed out. (I started tracking the tropical in June 2015.)

That's about the same time I started too. Can't believe it's already been 5 years!

I started in the worst year possible: 2013. Hurricane Sandy was what got me interested in meteorology. However, I was pretty on-and-off when it came to tracking until late 2015 with Hurricane Joaquin.

Back to Epsilon, the experimental satellite estimate puts it at 40 kt. Let’s see if the 18z best track agrees.

I'm surprised you didn't quit after 2013 lol... I've always been interested in tracking weather, but since Im in Oklahoma it has always been tornadoes and severe weather, but when TD Bill came over my house I was like"Hmm I wonder what other storms are out there" and the rest is history. First 2 storms I tracked were Cat 4 Goni and Cat 5 Atsani in the WPAC, pretty insane storms and I've been tracking ever since.

In regards to Epsilon, I would think they will up the winds

[aspen]

That's about the same time I started too. Can't believe it's already been 5 years!

I started in the worst year possible: 2013. Hurricane Sandy was what got me interested in meteorology. However, I was pretty on-and-off when it came to tracking until late 2015 with Hurricane Joaquin.

Back to Epsilon, the experimental satellite estimate puts it at 40 kt. Let’s see if the 18z best track agrees.

I'm surprised you didn't quit after 2013 lol... I've always been interested in tracking weather, but since Im in Oklahoma it has always been tornadoes and severe weather, but when TD Bill came over my house I was like"Hmm I wonder what other storms are out there" and the rest is history. First 2 storms I tracked were Cat 4 Goni and Cat 5 Atsani in the WPAC, pretty insane storms and I've been tracking ever since.

In regards to Epsilon, I would think they will up the winds

Yep, up to 40 kt/998 mbar. Tropical Tidbits no longer says “remnants of Epsilon”.

Also, back in 2013, it thought Humberto ‘13 was the coolest thing, due to its stairstep track and regeneration.