ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#381 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:50 pm

ClarCari wrote:Even if it’s peaking rn, this is still one of the top most impressive storms in the sub-tropics this time of the year. Sure Ophelia 2017 was farther NE, but Epsilon is later in the year and has a lower pressure than Ophelia’s peak!


Ophelia lacked Recon though so who knows what it really had.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#382 Postby gfsperpendicular » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:One wild card: could it take on an annular-like appearance and hold up better in the near future?


NHC reading this comment:
Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#383 Postby plasticup » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:56 am

Aint nothing annular about this storm.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#384 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:35 am

Weather Dude wrote:Storms like this are the reason I track storms... What a storm

Yes, Epsilon is just a stunner, but Epsilon lost it's eye.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#385 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:45 am

Epsilon is trying to get it's eye back.

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#386 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:47 am

Epsilon now at 100 mph
This is from the NHC:
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT EPSILON HAS
DROPPED IN INTENSITY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED ON BERMUDA TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 61.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...385 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#387 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:56 am

Oh wow, Epsilon really fell hard overnight. Recon suggests a 100 mph Cat 2 is being VERY generous.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#388 Postby JRD » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:46 am

Moreover, it's going to begin extratropical transition soon.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#389 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:54 am

aspen wrote:Oh wow, Epsilon really fell hard overnight. Recon suggests a 100 mph Cat 2 is being VERY generous.

No, they found consistant 85 knot winds at best.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#390 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:49 am

Epsilon is now having a full eye again.

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#391 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:26 am

Lil' secondary peak time

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#392 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:30 am

We still have quite a while until recon arrives and determines whether or not Epsilon is trying to briefly restrengthen.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#393 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:32 am

Epsilon is now having a full eye again.

Image
Last edited by Iceresistance on Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#394 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:32 am

Highly impressed it's even still able to try in an environment with low OHC, massive swath of dry air impinging, and increasing shear to be honest. What a storm
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#395 Postby us89 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:48 am

This is probably my favorite storm of the year. Great looking on satellite, RI'd far beyond what it was expected to, and not threatening land (other than whatever brushes Bermuda). And we have recon for it.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#396 Postby JRD » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:50 am

Intensification may be due to baroclinic processes. If that's indeed the case, then it could be related to the start of extratropical transition.
Last edited by JRD on Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:56 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#397 Postby EquusStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:51 am

Yeah I'm totally not going to get used to this being 27L, holy crap what a prolific season this has been
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#398 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:13 am

NHC saying 90 mph & 965 MB, but they are saying that Epsilon may have reversed the weakening trend. Here is the long term forecast
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 30.9N 61.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 33.4N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 35.1N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 36.9N 60.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 39.6N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 43.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 52.5N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROPICAL
120H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#399 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:14 am

This looks a lot stronger than a Cat 1 on IR. Maybe making another run?
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#400 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:18 pm

Why is recon so far north of Epsilon? They’re at 36N while the system is down at like 32N.
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