ATL: EPSILON - Post-Tropical

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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#341 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:30 pm

supercane4867 wrote:5PM discussion:

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon.


Haven’t we heard this before? Epsilon doing its magic again :cheesy:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/epsilon_and_zeta_2x.png

Yes, very familiar.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#342 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:34 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:5PM discussion:

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon.


Haven’t we heard this before? Epsilon doing its magic again :cheesy:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/epsilon_and_zeta_2x.png

Yes, very familiar.

For some reason I prefer to call this storm “Epsy the Energiser Bunny.” :lol: Version 2.0 is just like version 1.0!
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#343 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:35 pm

Epsilon is continuing the legacy started by 2005's Epsilon and completely baffling the NHC.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#344 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:36 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1319028720200519680


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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#345 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:38 pm

A week ago we would’ve never thought this would have developed into much, especially a major hurricane.

Got to love how great of a job(sarcasm) the global models have done this season. :lol:

Maybe next season will be much better assuming COVID dies down.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#346 Postby ClarCari » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:39 pm

mehhh it’s not all that baffling for a storm to intensify more than what was expected. Happens all the time.
I won’t call this Epsilon 05 V.2 unless it strengthens when it is supposed to start weakening just like 2005. Maybe then the whole board can start taking shots every advisory Epsilon doesn’t weaken :wink:
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#347 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:44 pm

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1319031481826594816


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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#348 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:45 pm

supercane4867 wrote:5PM discussion:

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon.


Haven’t we heard this before? Epsilon doing its magic again :cheesy:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/epsilon_and_zeta_2x.png

Now watch Epsilon 3 become a November MDR Cat 5 in 2035 or something wacky like that.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#349 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:45 pm

She's such a beaut

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#350 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:47 pm

supercane4867 wrote:5PM discussion:

Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon.


Haven’t we heard this before? Epsilon doing its magic again :cheesy:

https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/epsilon_and_zeta_2x.png

It’s certainly fitting that Stacey Stewart “signed off” the very last discussion for 2005:
I SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA
SURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
FORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO
THE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA
RESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE
ENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006
SEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE
COMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR
2005... FINALLY.

FORECASTER STEWART

As for Epsilon 2.0, the cold air aloft likely played a significant role in offsetting otherwise hostile SSTs, thus enabling deep convection and robust deepening.

Interestingly, cold temperatures aloft also played a noteworthy role in facilitating the persistence of Epsilon 1.0 as well. So both cases are certainly similar.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#351 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:53 pm

Satellite loops indicate Epsilon has continued to strengthen since first recon mission left.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#352 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:55 pm


Where did you get that last image? Reminds me of satellite photos from like 30 years ago.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#353 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:58 pm

ADT is being completely useless in this situation.

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
 4.9 / 966.0mb/ 87.4kt

     
 Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
 4.9     4.7     4.7
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#354 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:00 pm

So much for that thin NW eyewall...it got thick again...real quick
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#355 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:02 pm

Freak of nature

Image
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#356 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:46 pm

Recon is nearing their first pass. I’m going to guess they find a 105-110 kt/952 mbar Cat 3.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#357 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:47 pm

Recon looks like it's just about there. Epsilon looks really good on IR right now. Cat 4 could end up within reach if this keeps up
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#358 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:07 pm

Looks to have either held its own or intensified slightly. 105 kt perhaps?
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#359 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:07 pm

aspen wrote:Recon is nearing their first pass. I’m going to guess they find a 105-110 kt/952 mbar Cat 3.

Pretty close. This pass supports 105 kt and 950 mbar.
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Re: ATL: EPSILON - Hurricane

#360 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:15 pm

Beautiful.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1319051463251927041


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