ATL: EPSILON - Tropical Storm

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Image
Visit the Storm2K Tropical System Page
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#21 Postby Ubuntwo » Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:31 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
aspen wrote:Seems to be closed or close to it.
https://i.imgur.com/kyAWVzF.png

It does look like it is closed

We know it's closed per ASCAT:
Image
Designation hinges on convective structure/tropicality.
2 likes   
Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma

User avatar
Iceresistance
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 53
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#22 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:03 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
aspen wrote:Seems to be closed or close to it.
https://i.imgur.com/kyAWVzF.png

It does look like it is closed

We know it's closed per ASCAT:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/766775073561640970/ascat_94L_barb_202010161359.png
Designation hinges on convective structure/tropicality.

ASCAT is showing 30 knots. (35 mph, Tropical Depression)

This system will be more like a Sub-Tropical Depression than a Tropical Depression since of the curved convection. Sub-Tropical Storm Alpha was nearly a TS before landfall over Portugal.

I noticed at least 2 circulations within the main one, the multiple circulations within the main circulation is the feature of this hurricane season. :crazyeyes:
0 likes   
Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121085
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:32 pm

Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a non-tropical
low pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda continues to become better defined, and the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and
a subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 677
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#24 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a non-tropical
low pressure system located about 550 miles east-southeast of
Bermuda continues to become better defined, and the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little more
organized. Additional development of this system is expected, and
a subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

And we have a code red
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1276
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#25 Postby plasticup » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:11 pm

60/70 feels right. If this continues we’ll have a subtropical depression by tomorrow.
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

JRD
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:23 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#26 Postby JRD » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:33 am

It's now up to 70% in 2 days and 80% in 5 days.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121085
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#27 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:40 am

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about
500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Continued slow development
is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely
to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Iceresistance
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 53
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#28 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:35 am

Image
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 53
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#29 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:36 am

plasticup wrote:60/70 feels right. If this continues we’ll have a subtropical depression by tomorrow.



Now 80/90
0 likes   
Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

User avatar
Iceresistance
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 53
Age: 17
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#30 Postby Iceresistance » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:32 am

The wind shear graphic will keep updating every 6 hours

Image
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Tropical Storm Erin 2008 Tropical Storm Hermine 2011 Tropical Storm Bill 2015 Tropical Storm Imelda 2019

Plus many Oklahoma Supercells.

I'm not a Pro at this, but I know a lot on hurricanes & Oklahoma Weather, please look up the NHC or SPC for more info.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121085
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#31 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:30 am

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121085
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#32 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:27 pm

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about
500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development is
expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely
to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

plasticup
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1276
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 2010 5:49 pm
Location: Bermuda

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#33 Postby plasticup » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:46 pm

So just waiting for that dry slot to wash out I guess?
0 likes   
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 488
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#34 Postby Jr0d » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:14 pm

Looking very close to being classified as the sun sets. I will be very surprised if it's not classfied by 11am tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121085
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:33 pm

8 PM:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
have shown little change in organization since earlier today.
Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or
storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the
low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

JRD
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:23 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#36 Postby JRD » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:37 pm

Invest 94L right now has a barely (almost on the thin white border between warm and cold) warm core, which is also shallow and near the border between symmetric and asymmetric (though appreciably symmetric). It resembles a subtropical cyclone in convection organization, satellite appearance, and the shallow warm core.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 121085
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:52 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

underthwx
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 909
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: West Columbia Tx Brazoria County

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#38 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Almost there if not already a STD.

https://twitter.com/EdgeStorms/status/1317642461062303744


Luis....where will this system likely track?......
0 likes   

User avatar
Weather Dude
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 677
Age: 19
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#39 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:29 am

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low
pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
have not become significantly better organized over the past
several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical
depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or
two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC for official information.

User avatar
StrongWind
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:02 pm
Location: Deerfield Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#40 Postby StrongWind » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:31 am

JRD wrote:Invest 94L right now has a barely (almost on the thin white border between warm and cold) warm core, which is also shallow and near the border between symmetric and asymmetric (though appreciably symmetric). It resembles a subtropical cyclone in convection organization, satellite appearance, and the shallow warm core.

How can I tell if a system is warm or cold core or borderline?
0 likes   


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 15 guests