ATL: EPSILON - Models

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cycloneye
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ATL: EPSILON - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:45 am

Only model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby plasticup » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:48 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:07 am

The models were originally split between the ridge smashing this to bits or this developing without any issues. Now, the GFS, GFS-P, Euro, and CMC have agreed on a mix solution: 94L becomes Epsilon within 48-72 hours, it’s weakened by the southward-shoving ridge, and recovers and restrengthens a few days later.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:16 am

* ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942020 10/16/20 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 52 52 50 49 49 53 56 58 61 64
V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 52 52 50 49 49 53 56 58 61 64
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 35 36 36 35 35 37 40 44 49 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 23 20 17 14 15 21 27 31 35 35 29 28 22 21 17 19 20
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -7 -4 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -5 0 -1 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 252 240 248 268 283 312 317 300 285 271 264 257 265 259 275 255 272
SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 122 123 123 127 128 130 131 140 144 148 147 139 133 128 124
ADJ. POT. INT. 102 98 100 101 101 107 111 114 115 124 127 130 128 118 112 107 105
200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.5 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 -56.3 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -55.6 -55.2
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7
700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 55 54 51 53 51 45 39 39 40 42 47 51 51 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 15 14 13 12 12 14 17 19 20 24
850 MB ENV VOR 20 41 57 57 71 94 105 112 101 117 103 100 93 90 71 58 49
200 MB DIV -9 3 -7 -16 -11 -13 -13 -13 -8 4 20 4 13 4 0 0 6
700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 -2 -5 -2 -4 0 0 2 4 4 2 9
LAND (KM) 1682 1692 1688 1679 1667 1714 1539 1342 1142 972 851 837 882 901 958 1026 1043
LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.4 29.0 27.5 26.2 25.4 25.2 25.7 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 54.2 53.9 54.0 54.3 54.7 55.2 56.1 57.2 58.6 60.2 62.0 63.6 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 2 3 3 6 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 6
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 11 12 23 31 34 37 19 13 11 6

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 1. -6. -13. -19. -23. -26. -30. -31. -31. -30.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 32. 32. 30. 29. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. 44.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.1 54.2

** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/16/20 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/16/20 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/16/2020 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 52 52 50 49 49 53 56 58 61 64
18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 31 38 45 48 48 46 45 45 49 52 54 57 60
12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 31 38 41 41 39 38 38 42 45 47 50 53
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:08 am

UKMET makes 94L a hurricane:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 31.1N 56.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2020 24 30.5N 56.7W 1009 26
0000UTC 18.10.2020 36 28.9N 56.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.10.2020 48 27.6N 55.8W 1002 30
0000UTC 19.10.2020 60 26.7N 55.1W 1000 33
1200UTC 19.10.2020 72 25.8N 55.1W 998 36
0000UTC 20.10.2020 84 25.9N 54.2W 993 43
1200UTC 20.10.2020 96 28.3N 53.9W 989 45
0000UTC 21.10.2020 108 30.2N 55.3W 977 58
1200UTC 21.10.2020 120 30.2N 57.4W 969 59
0000UTC 22.10.2020 132 30.0N 58.4W 961 63
1200UTC 22.10.2020 144 31.1N 58.6W 956 66
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:28 pm

Look at that.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:05 pm

HWRF has a weak subtropical system until it hits slightly warmer waters (~28C) and an area of slightly less shear on Monday-Tuesday, where it acquires a more tropical look before intensifying into a Category 2 hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:Look at that.

https://i.imgur.com/Cr0SFDj.png

Yep... Crystal clear on where this one will go :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:49 pm

This model intensity run will keep updating as the day goes along.

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Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby plasticup » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:08 pm

Iceresistance wrote:The NHC now says a 60-70% for 94L

CTCI wants a CAT 2/3 strength for 94L

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_intensity_latest.png


All depends on whether it reaches the Gulf Stream I guess
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#11 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:13 pm

plasticup wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The NHC now says a 60-70% for 94L

CTCI wants a CAT 2/3 strength for 94L

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_intensity_latest.png


All depends on whether it reaches the Gulf Stream I guess

The Models say the system drifts Southwest, & into warmer waters.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:51 pm

The GFS and GFS-Para show the ridge squishing Epsilon/94L on Monday and Tuesday, but it’s able to regenerate to the east and become even stronger than before. This has been consistent for the last day or so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby Weather Dude » Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:44 pm

0z GFS... Much more pronounced and much further W, brings it down into the 980s mb range so likely a hurricane or close to one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:44 am

00z Euro.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:16 am

The HWRF is much weaker, but it finally agrees with the “squish-and-strengthen” scenario where 94L/Epsilon moves south, is squished by the ridge, and starts to intensify once shear lets up.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:21 am

Not sure if I buy the 6z GFS showing this becoming a hurricane pretty quickly... I can definitely see it becoming one, just maybe not so quickly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:11 pm

94L stronger and further west, gives Bermuda the east side of a likely hurricane at 986mb :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:29 pm

0z GFS bottoms this out at 976mb, also appears to make it a very large system so it could be a decent ACE producer if that were to verify.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:37 am

Bermuda may get it or may be a close call.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#20 Postby Weather Dude » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:59 am

94L east of Bermuda again on 12z GFS
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