ATL: EPSILON - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

...EPSILON STILL COULD PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 61.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 61.4 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
northward motion is expected through early Saturday with a faster
motion toward the northeast later that day. The center of Epsilon
will pass well east of Bermuda tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are expected for
the next couple of days before gradual weakening starts on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on
Bermuda through this evening.

SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin



Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

Satellite images indicate that the eye of Epsilon has lost
definition over the past several hours. While satellite intensity
estimates haven't changed much yet, they were generally higher than
the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial wind speed is set to
75 kt, on the lower side of the satellite estimates after placing
more weight on the aircraft data.

Epsilon is moving faster to the north-northwest this afternoon, at
roughly 8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and
continue on that heading for a day or two while it moves through a
break in the central Atlantic ridge. Epsilon is likely to move
considerably faster to the northeast over the weekend as it get
caught in the mid-latitude flow. The only significant adjustment
to this forecast is a small northward shift in a couple of days.
The new NHC track is still south of the model consensus over the
weekend and beyond, placing more emphasis on the global models than
the regional hurricane guidance. After 72 hours, the cyclone is
forecast to merge with a much larger extratropical cyclone over the
far north Atlantic.

The small core that Epsilon has maintained for the past couple of
days seems to be degrading, and perhaps it is forming a larger
secondary wind maximum based on AMSR microwave data. Otherwise, a
trough interaction and a small warm eddy near the Gulf Stream could
lead to a slight recovery in Epsilon's strength tomorrow or
Saturday. Either way, the global models make this hurricane's
wind field quite a bit larger (especially the 50- and 64-kt winds),
and that's reflected in the latest wind radii forecast. The new
NHC wind speed prediction is about the same as the previous one,
adjusted slightly for a lower initial wind speed.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected intermittently on Bermuda
through this evening, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest
approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect
for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 31.9N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 33.0N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 34.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 36.8N 61.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 39.0N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 42.2N 53.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 46.5N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Thu Oct 22 2020

The eye became a little more apparent on satellite images but
recently has become less defined. The system has a somewhat
ragged-looking Central Dense Overcast with a broad outer cloud band
wrapping around the western semicircle of the circulation.
Upper-level outflow is fairly well-defined over the northern portion
of the system. The current intensity estimate is kept at 75 kt in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT
estimates from UW-CIMSS. Since Epsilon should be passing near a
modestly warm oceanic eddy during the next day or so, some slight
short-term restrengthening is allowed for in the official forecast.
Later in the forecast period, gradual weakening should occur due to
cooler waters, but the system is likely to remain a strong cyclone
for the next few days. By around 72 hours, the GFS and SHIPS
guidance indicates that Epsilon will have undergone extratropical
transition over the north Atlantic. Afterward, the global models
show the system merging with another cyclone at the higher
latitudes.

Epsilon continues to move just a bit to the west of due north, or
at about 345/8 kt. The cyclone is expected to move mainly
northward on the western side of a mid-tropospheric ridge during
the next couple of days. By around 48 hours, Epsilon should
turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes caught up in
the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is
not much different from the previous one, and is very close to
the latest corrected dynamical consensus, HCCA, prediction.

The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the
next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus
radii guidance, RVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Winds at Bermuda will subside overnight, and the Tropical Storm
Warning for that island has been discontinued.

2. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 32.6N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 33.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 35.8N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 37.8N 60.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 44.3N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 48.4N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Although Epsilon is moving over 25.5 deg C sea-surface temperatures
(SST), the hurricane has continued to generate deep convection
around the small 15-nmi-wide eye. Upper-level outflow also remains
impressive in all quadrants, but especially in the northern
semicircle where a pronounced poleward outflow channel has become
established. The initial intensity remains at 75 kt based on a
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB yielding a Current
Intensity (CI) number of T4.5/77 kt. The 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii
were expanded based on recent ASCAT scatterometer wind data between
0100-0300 UTC.

Epsilon is now moving northward, or 360/07 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to continue moving northward today around the western
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located east of the
cyclone. On Saturday, Epsilon is expected to turn northeastward and
accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and associated
frontal system that will be moving off the U.S. east coast on
Sunday. That motion will take Epsilon over increasingly cooler SSTs
as low as 20 deg C by Sunday morning, resulting in extratropical
transition by 60 h, if not sooner. The new NHC official track
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies
close to the middle of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-
consensus models.

The current relatively low southerly vertical wind shear of about 10
kt is forecast to gradually increase to more than 20 kt by this
evening. Although Epsilon will be moving over a modestly warm
oceanic eddy today, which could result in some brief restrengthening
of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast calls for the
intensity to remain steady for the next 36 h, followed by slow
weakening thereafter due to the hurricane moving over near-20 deg C
SSTs by 48 hours. By 60 hours, the global models and the GFS- and
ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance indicate that Epsilon will have undergone
extratropical transition over the far north Atlantic. Afterward,
the global models continue to show Epsilon getting absorbed by a
larger extratropical cyclone at the higher latitudes, resulting in a
very powerful low developing with a central pressure near 940 mb.
That low then moves eastward, possibly menacing northern Europe by
the middle of next week.

The forecast wind radii, which show the cyclone expanding over the
next few days, are in good agreement with the dynamical consensus
radii guidance, RVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening surf and rip currents
are expected along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater
Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States,
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 33.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 34.7N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 36.7N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 38.8N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 42.0N 54.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 46.0N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/0600Z 49.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12
hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary
satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional
well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75
kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite
trends.

The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster
speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day
or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge
located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward
the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies
ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be
moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing
extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very
similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus
models.

Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will
actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as
it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however,
that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening.
Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the
next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate
any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening
should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually
increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream.
However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude
cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the
forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the
previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 34.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.5N 61.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Epsilon is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northward
motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, with a very
fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day
or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could
lose tropical characteristics late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Papin






Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

The satellite structure of Epsilon has evolved over the last 6
hours, with visible imagery suggesting concentric eyewalls, and
recent 89 GHz GMI and AMSR2 microwave imagery indicating the
secondary eyewall has nearly closed off around the smaller core. The
current intensity of Epsilon was kept at 75 kt for this advisory,
close to the satellite estimates, although the 50-kt wind field has
expanded significantly in the northern semicircle as indicated by
recent scatterometer data.

Epsilon has maintained its northward heading with a bit faster
forward motion (360/10 kt). The track reasoning remains the same,
where the cyclone will be steered to the north around the westward
extent of a deep-layer ridge and then will move quite quickly to
the northeast as it encounters stronger deep-layer westerly flow
ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough. This same mid-latitude trough
will interact with Epsilon after 60 h and contribute to the
formation of a large and powerful baroclinic cyclone by the end of
the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the track
forecast.

Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days
and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core
fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest
intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over
a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary
eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official
intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h.
Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt
wind field should continue to expand to the south while it
undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 35.5N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020

Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the
past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously
nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken
on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all
agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is
lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of
the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of
the hurricane has expanded.

Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf
Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from
substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact,
some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some
strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should
begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition
will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at
or near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in
around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to
produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it
becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with
another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting
low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over
portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter.

Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is
expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction
over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in
excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always
some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in
the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind
radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids
(TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 36.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 38.1N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 40.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 43.6N 50.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 47.4N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1200Z 51.7N 29.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

Epsilon's convective pattern has continued to devolve into more of a
large comma-shaped pattern rather than the classical circular
structure of a mature tropical cyclone. There is a ragged remnant
eye, however, which has provided a good continuity feature to
track. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of T4.0/65 kt from
TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/10 kt.
Epsilon is now located north of the mid-oceanic subtropical ridge
axis, so acceleration into the faster mid-latitude westerlies is
expected to begin by this evening, if not sooner, and continue
through the weekend. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement on this developing track scenario. The new NHC official
track forecast is almost identical to the previous advisory track,
and lies down the middle of the tightly packed simple- and
corrected-consensus track model envelope.

Epsilon will be moving off of a relatively warm Gulfstream eddy
(26.5 deg C sea-surface temperature/SST) in the next 6 h or so,
which should result in continued slow weakening through the weekend.
By 36 h, SSTs are expected to drop sharply to less than 20 deg C,
causing the complete erosion of any remaining inner-core convection
and resultant transition to a large and powerful extratropical low.
The post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce a large area of
gale- and storm-force winds right up until the time that it merges
with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by
late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely
produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic
through the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 36.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this
morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in
a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped
pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A
drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has
provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100
UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a
pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous
estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the
availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon
was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial
intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could
still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind
relationships.

Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now
moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward
the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a
forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by
Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through
early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly
clustered track guidance.

The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C
for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures
aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity
today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are
expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts
with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the
inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a
large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This
cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low
over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low
pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over
portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 37.9N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

Epsilon continues to exhibit an inner core of deep convection. In
fact, only in the past couple of hours has the eye become difficult
to locate in satellite images. A larger comma-shaped cloud shield
surrounds the circulation, and extends several hundred miles from
the center. Epsilon passed over a buoy array this morning where
pressures as low as 957.6 mb were recorded. In addition, a pair of
ASCAT overpasses late this morning showed a large area of winds of
60-65 kt in the southern semicircle. This data supported an
intensity of 70 kt earlier, and the cyclone's appearance has not
changed much since then. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 70
kt.

The hurricane will likely hold its own for the next 6-12 h as it
traverses over waters of about 24 C, while in a fairly favorable
atmospheric environment downstream of a mid- to upper-level trough.
After 12 h, Epsilon should begin to move over waters of 20 degrees C
or less. The combination of the much cooler water temperatures and
trough interaction should cause the cyclone to begin an
extratropical transition that is forecast to complete by late
Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast was nudged a little higher in the
24-48 h time frames due to a slight increase in the guidance, and
the latest forecast is very near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
Regardless of exactly when Epsilon becomes extratropical, it is
still expected to remain a very large and powerful cyclone until it
merges with a larger low to its north in a few days.

Epsilon is accelerating and is now moving northeastward at 19 kt.
The cyclone should continue accelerating toward the northeast
through Sunday in the mid-latitude westerlies, and could reach a
forward motion of about 40 kt toward the northeast or east-northeast
by Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through
early next week. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly clustered
track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 39.4N 58.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 41.5N 54.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 44.9N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0600Z 48.9N 35.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1800Z 53.5N 25.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0600Z 58.5N 19.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

...EPSILON GROWS EVEN LARGER AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.3N 56.1W
ABOUT 785 MI...1265 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was
located near latitude 41.3 North, longitude 56.1 West. Epsilon is
accelerating toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). Continued
acceleration in that direction is expected for the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is possible through the weekend, but
Epsilon is expected to remain a large and powerful system even after
it becomes post-tropical on Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles
(610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast
of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 PM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

Epsilon has become a little less organized during the past couple
of hours. The hurricane is still producing inner-core convection,
but cloud tops have gradually warmed, and the overall cloud pattern
has become asymmetric once again. ASCAT-A data from just after 00Z
showed maximum winds of 55-60 kt southeast of Epsilon's center. The
intensity of the hurricane is therefore set at 65 kt, assuming a
little undersampling from the ASCAT instrument. The wind radii
analysis was also updated based on the ASCAT data.

The hurricane is currently located over relatively warm waters
associated with the Gulf Stream. Epsilon is forecast to remain over
the Gulf Stream for at least another 12 hours, and should maintain
its tropical structure during that time. The cyclone is forecast to
move over much cooler water by Sunday afternoon and this should
cause it to quickly become post-tropical. Gradual weakening is
expected through this period, but the global models indicate that
Epsilon will continue to produce a very large area of gale-force
winds and maximum winds near hurricane strength even after it
becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then expected to merge with
another large non-tropical low early next week.

The hurricane is accelerating northeastward and should continue to
gain forward speed in that general direction for the next day or
so. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which is based
on a blend of TVCA and HCCA. All of the typically reliable track
models show the same evolution, so confidence in the track forecast
remains high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 41.3N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 43.6N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 47.3N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1200Z 51.6N 30.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0000Z 56.5N 23.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

Although the cloud pattern of Epsilon is beginning to expand over
the northwestern portion of the circulation as the hurricane begins
its extratropical transition, the storm continues to produce
inner-core convection. Recent shortwave infrared satellite imagery
suggest that there is some northeast-to-southwest tilt between the
mid- and low-level centers. Since there has been little overall
change in the inner-core structure since the previous advisory, the
initial intensity is held at 65 kt in agreement with the earlier
ASCAT data.

Epsilon is moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and
will be over much colder SSTs later this morning. This, along with
an approaching baroclinic zone, should cause Epsilon to quickly lose
its tropical characteristics and become an extratropical low by
later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to remain a large
and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next day or
so. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will
be absorbed by a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic
within 48 hours.

The hurricane continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial
motion estimate of 050/26 kt. A continued northeastward acceleration
is expected through tonight, and rather faster northeastward motion
is forecast until the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by the
larger extratropical low Monday night. The track guidance remains
tightly clustered and the new NHC forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 42.8N 53.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020

Epsilon continues its extratropical transition, as the cloud tops
near the center of circulation are warming while the cloud pattern
continues to expand over the northern portion of the circulation.
The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory
based on early morning ASCAT data. Partial data from a more recent
scatterometer pass also suggested this intensity.

The cyclone is now moving over waters of only 17 degrees C and the
waters ahead of the system are even cooler than that. Epsilon
is also interacting with a baroclinic zone as evidenced by a large
area of cool and stable air stratocumulus wrapping around the
southwestern portion of the circulation. These factors should cause
what remains of the inner-core convection to weaken over the next
several hours, and the system should complete its extratropical
transition by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone will remain
large and powerful for the next day or so until it is absorbed by
another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about
36-48 h.

Epsilon is moving quickly east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The
cyclone is expected to accelerate even more today, with a fast
east-northeastward or northeastward motion expected until the
system is absorbed by the other low. The latest NHC forecast track
is little changed from the previous one and lies in the middle of
the tightly clustered consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 44.3N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
900 PM GMT Sun Oct 25 2020

Epsilon is nearly extratropical, with late morning scatterometer
data showing that the circulation has become stretched out as the
cyclone interacts with a high-latitude low pressure system and an
associated mid- upper-level trough to its north. The main reason
that the cyclone is still classifiable as a tropical cyclone is
persistent deep convection very near the center of circulation.
Based on the scatterometer data showing an area of peak winds of
56 kt, the initial intensity is being lowered to 60 kt.

What remains of the trapped tropical airmass near the center of the
cyclone supporting the deep convection should mix out over the next
few hours, as Epsilon moves over cold waters of about 15 degrees C
and continues to wrap cooler and stable air into its circulation.
The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful until it is
absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic
in about 24-36 h.

Epsilon is racing east-northeastward at around 40 kt, embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies. A fast east-northeastward or
northeastward motion is expected to continue until the system gets
absorbed by the aforementioned high-latitude low pressure system.
The latest NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the
previous one and remains in the middle of the tightly clustered
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 46.2N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 49.4N 35.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 26/1800Z 54.4N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[cycloneye]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Epsilon no longer
has the structure of a tropical cyclone. The low-level circulation
is stretched out along a north-south axis, with an area of lighter
winds noted near and north of the ill-defined center. Furthermore,
infrared cloud tops have warmed over the past several hours as
convection wanes near the center. Therefore, Epsilon has been
declared a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC
advisory for the system.

A partial 22Z ASCAT-A overpass showed at least 55-kt winds in the
southern semicircle of the cyclone, which supports keeping the
initial intensity at 60 kt. Post-tropical Epsilon is firmly embedded
in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone will continue racing
northeastward at around 35-40 kt for the next day or so. The cyclone
will remain a very powerful and dangerous storm until it is absorbed
by another large extratropical low pressure system over the
northeastern Atlantic. The global models remain in very good
agreement with this scenario, and no notable changes were made to
the official NHC forecast.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 48.6N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 52.1N 30.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky