ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1161 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:02 pm

Stormcenter wrote:As the center nears the Gulf convection has started to
increase a little.

There are precipitation forecasts in the 10" range for Louisiana currently, the big gulp of dry air helped Texas but there could be another squall line setup further east in the future model runs if this slowly starts picking up moisture again.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1162 Postby CypressMike » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:07 pm

I must say that Nick certainly outperformed my expectations here in the Bridgeland subdivision of Cypress on the NW side of town. The back of my house faces one of the lakes so there was nothing blocking the easterly winds for 200 - 300 yards. I have a roof mounted anemometer that extends above the roof peak by about 5 or 6 ft, putting it at about 45 ft above ground level (or approximately 12 ft higher than the ideal height of 10 meters) - and higher than anything around for miles.

That said, I recorded numerous gusts >50 mph throughout the night, and my top two peak gusts were 60 and 66 mph. The wind was really howling!
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1163 Postby MBryant » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:08 pm

Got a rainband here in Orange, but looked more ominous on radar than reality. Not even street flooding yet and that happens about four times a month during the summer. Even if it stalls, it appears the rain is still well east of the center of circulation.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1164 Postby MBryant » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:19 pm

jasons2k wrote:

The winds from Rita were much worse than this - at least up here in Southern Montgomery County. We had lots of downed trees in the neighborhood after Rita - not this time.


RITA was FAR worse. Pines were snapped at about 75Feet and oaks were uprooted. Access was hazardous for weeks. I suspect there was a significant wind speed differential from the surface to 100 feet.

Harvey was a massive broad flood event (500 year flood). Ike was a tidal surge event. Laura was more of a RITA wind event. All did damage in their own way. So far, this is having very little impact in my area, though I'm sure isolates spots will me more heavily impacted.

Just don't be stupid and drive through high water.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1165 Postby underthwx » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:32 pm

What time was landfall?....I lost power last night....no information till awhile ago.....we had alot of thunder and blitzen....lightning in abundance...and a sound of a freight train passin over the house..not sure how close to the center I was...but it could not have been far...I'm about 15 miles or so from Bay City/Matagorda Bay...located near FM 521 in Sweeny Tx....it was blowin hard overnight.....no idea if any tornado activity was reported or not....but I won't forget that sound I heard....
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1166 Postby jconsor » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:35 pm

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1167 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:43 pm

underthwx wrote:What time was landfall?....I lost power last night....no information till awhile ago.....we had alot of thunder and blitzen....lightning in abundance...and a sound of a freight train passin over the house..not sure how close to the center I was...but it could not have been far...I'm about 15 miles or so from Bay City/Matagorda Bay...located near FM 521 in Sweeny Tx....it was blowin hard overnight.....no idea if any tornado activity was reported or not....but I won't forget that sound I heard....


Landfall was at 12:35 AM just to the west of 10-15 miles west of Sargent Beach it pretty much went right over you.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1168 Postby LARanger » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:45 pm

Stormgodess wrote:And can anyone tell me if NWS takes into account Treefall debris along waterways, when they do their Hydrologic river predictions?


I don't think it would be necessary to account for fallen trees. It would potentially upset some flow rate values, but the sheer volume of biomatter that would be required to significantly dam up a decent-size stream or river would be pretty extreme.

Edit: WBRZ just said I'm dumb, so I'm dumb: "Rainfall will be efficient and could come down very heavy at times quickly leading to draining issues. Combine that with the amount of debris still across the region drainage systems may be blocked leading to additional flooding concerns. The heaviest rain could also occur overnight Tuesday night."
Last edited by LARanger on Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1169 Postby underthwx » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:46 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
underthwx wrote:What time was landfall?....I lost power last night....no information till awhile ago.....we had alot of thunder and blitzen....lightning in abundance...and a sound of a freight train passin over the house..not sure how close to the center I was...but it could not have been far...I'm about 15 miles or so from Bay City/Matagorda Bay...located near FM 521 in Sweeny Tx....it was blowin hard overnight.....no idea if any tornado activity was reported or not....but I won't forget that sound I heard....


Landfall was at 12:35 AM just to the west of 10-15 miles west of Sargent Beach it pretty much went right over you.


Thanks for the info....my connection is on and off constantly.....I appreciate it alot...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1170 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:21 pm

underthwx wrote:What time was landfall?....I lost power last night....no information till awhile ago.....we had alot of thunder and blitzen....lightning in abundance...and a sound of a freight train passin over the house..not sure how close to the center I was...but it could not have been far...I'm about 15 miles or so from Bay City/Matagorda Bay...located near FM 521 in Sweeny Tx....it was blowin hard overnight.....no idea if any tornado activity was reported or not....but I won't forget that sound I heard....


That was the eyewall probably some 70 mph 10 second winds in the squalls where you live, 1/2" plywood resonates a little different than 5/8" but if you have asphalt roof shingles with glue strips you should reglue them.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1171 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:22 pm

jconsor wrote:Thanks for your comments on Rita! I had not considered Rita in depth when posting the initial tweet. I updated my Tweet thread to reflect Rita in comparison to Nicholas.

It's important to emphasize that my assessment of most severe hurricane impacts reflects the portion of the Houston metro area that is closer to the coast, mainly Galveston, Brazoria, Harris and Fort Bend counties.

jasons2k wrote:

The winds from Rita were much worse than this - at least up here in Southern Montgomery County. We had lots of downed trees in the neighborhood after Rita - not this time.

Thanks for the clarification. It can get tricky. I’m technically in Montgomery County but I’m 8 miles - as the crow flies - from IAH, our “official” reporting station for Houston and I am closer to Galveston Bay and the Gulf than NW Harris County.

Yes, Rita downed a lot of trees in our area. If I recall correctly, the Lake Livingston dam had gusts to hurricane force too. Jeff Lindner did a great post-storm analysis on Rita. Probably in an old email folder - I may have to dig it out.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1172 Postby Stormgodess » Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:43 pm

LARanger wrote:
Stormgodess wrote:And can anyone tell me if NWS takes into account Treefall debris along waterways, when they do their Hydrologic river predictions?


I don't think it would be necessary to account for fallen trees. It would potentially upset some flow rate values, but the sheer volume of biomatter that would be required to significantly dam up a decent-size stream or river would be pretty extreme.

Edit: WBRZ just said I'm dumb, so I'm dumb: "Rainfall will be efficient and could come down very heavy at times quickly leading to draining issues. Combine that with the amount of debris still across the region drainage systems may be blocked leading to additional flooding concerns. The heaviest rain could also occur overnight Tuesday night."



EDIT: Sorry I had gotten disconnected during my reply to you and had to log back in. Didnt realize it reloaded without my reply and only your quote

You are not dumb. I posed the question yesterday to the local meteorologist I follow on Facebook, and even msgd NWS on Facebook and none responded.

What concerns me is I live on the Little Natalbany river, Located right in the middle of the Tickfaw and Tangipahoa rivers, its a tributary of the Natalbany River in Baptist where the only gauge for it is located. Livingston Parish is FULL of Rivers, Little Tributaries, Creeks, and Ditches that flow through heavily wooded areas and all empty into Lake Maurepas.

Im in the Northeast of the parish, where the eye passed, and looking down the river from the bridge by my house, all you see it treefall. The southern end of the parish not only got much stronger winds but also have much moister soil. And that seem to be the areas that had the most trees go down. So I can only imagine how badly those rivers and tributaries are clogged downstream from me. Ive been watching the gauge in baptist since early this morning, every time that I can get a signal. And the Forecast crest for it has doubled since this morning, and its rising faster than the forecast
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1173 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:48 pm



So far tonight, most of the rain is east of here. I guess it will have to reform offshore and start training for us to get any more than maybe a couple inches. Next couple hours ought to show whether we’re getting it bad or not.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1174 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:47 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1175 Postby LARanger » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:06 pm

I'm starting to disapprove of this storm. For some goofy reason the wind is coming from the east, and thus driving rain up under my unresolved Ida-induced shingle problem. :grr:

Edit: Oh, and all that attic gymnastics did my lower back awfully dirty, so I guess that's a storm injury. But which one to blame it on?
Last edited by LARanger on Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1176 Postby LARanger » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:44 pm

Stormgodess wrote: I posed the question yesterday to the local meteorologist I follow on Facebook, and even msgd NWS on Facebook and none responded.


Personal service is hard to come by these days. That's why having actual experts here makes Storm2k worth the dough (says the jerk who has yet to fork over any).

What concerns me is I live on the Little Natalbany river, Located right in the middle of the Tickfaw and Tangipahoa rivers, its a tributary of the Natalbany River in Baptist where the only gauge for it is located. Livingston Parish is FULL of Rivers, Little Tributaries, Creeks, and Ditches that flow through heavily wooded areas and all empty into Lake Maurepas.

Im in the Northeast of the parish, where the eye passed, and looking down the river from the bridge by my house, all you see it treefall. The southern end of the parish not only got much stronger winds but also have much moister soil. And that seem to be the areas that had the most trees go down. So I can only imagine how badly those rivers and tributaries are clogged downstream from me. Ive been watching the gauge in baptist since early this morning, every time that I can get a signal. And the Forecast crest for it has doubled since this morning, and its rising faster than the forecast


At the risk of offending any hydrologists nearby, I've learned just from watching the Amite and Tangi like a damn hawk that the river forecasts are a bit dodgy in relation to unique weather events like 2016 or hurricanes. Don't get me wrong . . . sometimes they're spot on, despite being updated with far less frequency than, say, the NHC forecasts. Other times, even when something's been known to be coming for awhile, they lag or drastically change. In the case of this event, my guess would be that the Little Natalbany won't go much higher than today's forecast, if at all, but that they still got the timing wrong.

Also, for what it's worth, most of the other rivers in the area appear to more or less be keeping schedule, suggesting that they're in the right neighborhood insofar as making general predictions based on rainfall and drainage overall.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1177 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:50 pm

LARanger wrote:I'm starting to disapprove of this storm. For some goofy reason the wind is coming from the east, and thus driving rain up under my unresolved Ida-induced shingle problem. :grr:


It’s going to be around a couple days though I’m assuming continued weakening until it’s just a focusing mechanism. TWC keeps showing a model that actually brings the center slightly back offshore but doesn’t do anything with it. I would think the way this is all setting up that areas in south and southwest Mississippi are probably going to take the brunt of the rainfall to come with still some upper end totals in Louisiana. For now, we have a pretty serious band moving up from the SW. Other than one band that blasted downtown earlier, this looks to be the realest we will get overnight. One good thing is that there aren’t constant lines of yellows and reds. Because that setup would inundate us here.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1178 Postby LARanger » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:03 am

Steve wrote:I would think the way this is all setting up that areas in south and southwest Mississippi are probably going to take the brunt of the rainfall to come with still some upper end totals in Louisiana.


I'm actually pretty impressed with the modeling at this moment . . . the GFS and ICON cumulative rainfall totals point to a lot of heavy rainfall in the "ankle" of the Louisiana "boot", i.e. east and west of Alexandria or thereabouts. And indeed, right now, the IR sat view makes it look like the TX/LA border in the middle of Louisiana is just heaving up stuff which promptly heads east.

I think that big band you mentioned will mostly be passing to my south, but will catch you. There's another little blob trying to get started behind that, as well, but we'll see.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1179 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 15, 2021 1:26 am

Looks like we will. Edge front band with some yellows before the main band is coming through now. Nothing extreme but winds and rain started picking up a little. Looks like a split flow in central Louisiana which also appears to be part of transferring energy to the ENE. I guess if it’s not a decoupling, it’s at least some mid and upper level energy getting pulled into the westerlies.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1180 Postby underthwx » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:43 am

Good morning all ...I'm taking advantage of a few minutes of signal on my phone to wish all of you affected by both Ida and Nicholas well....no power here....but it's all good....could have been much worse....yall be good....stay safe..
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