ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:14 am

AL, 94, 2021091106, , BEST, 0, 175N, 915W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031, SPAWNINVEST, al742021 to al942021,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#2 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:20 am

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#3 Postby Kohlecane » Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:51 am


Already looks better than Mindy did when she was moving through
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:30 am

Is there a 94L models thread, for some reason I can't find it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:48 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:54 am

Clearcloudz wrote:Is there a 94L models thread, for some reason I can't find it?


I just made a models thread. 6z HMON and HRWF just started running for the invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:34 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:42 am

A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area
of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. Although
upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they
are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next
day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or
Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward
near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be
possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water,
and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of this system.

1. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:50 am

Like I mentioned on the other thread, I think we need to watch for an overperformer here. As long as it stays away from the coast, I think we could be looking at a decent hurricane coming in. That combined with the rainfall forecast makes me pretty concerned about this one overall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:45 am

Question for the moderators: it looks like there's some confusion on why the thread for this storm is locked, so is there a way we could post a link in big letters to redirect posters to this particular 94L thread?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby galvbay » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:55 am

Waiting/watching here on Galveston East Bay (Smith Point)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby Wampadawg » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:56 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Question for the moderators: it looks like there's some confusion on why the thread for this storm is locked, so is there a way we could post a link in big letters to redirect posters to this particular 94L thread?

The panic buying has started in my area of The Texas coast
:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby grapealcoholic » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:51 am

Looking good this afternoon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:09 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby MGC » Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:38 pm

Looks to me that a weak low is emerging into the BOC near Campeche Mexico.....MGC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:42 pm

A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions
of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico.
Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development
currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system
during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form
on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and
then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further
development will be possible through the middle of next week if it
remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern
Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
tomorrow.

1. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce
heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan
Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and
mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach
portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and
Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant
rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of
flash and urban flooding.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby Weather Dude » Sat Sep 11, 2021 12:44 pm

I would think we might see PTC advisories soon since it's up to 80/90 now
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby grapealcoholic » Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:09 pm

Starting to see winds shift from NE to NW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:26 pm

A strong TS or weak cat 1 is still in play imo.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby LadyBug72 » Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:45 pm

Everyone on the Texas coast needs to get preparations started.
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