ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2344
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1141 Postby Frank P » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:43 am

Latest radar still of Nicholas as it heads off to the east… not sure if this is just a temporary motion or not.. regardless, for it to hug the coast line certainly might exacerbate the rainfall totals for LA… I remember when Alison went back into the gulf after flooding Houston, we got some pretty good gusts from her over in Biloxi…

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
loon
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 618
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:50 pm
Location: Downtown Houston

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1142 Postby loon » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:08 pm

Stormcenter wrote:I was about to post the same thing…..it must be
a radar illusion right?

loon wrote:Radar eyes are messing with me again this morning, i swear that spin is heading back into the GOM, i know some models predicted maybe that would happen. *bears watching* I guess. got about 4" of rain here in downtown, 35.2 MPH winds sustained at peak.


tolakram wrote:You two beat me by a few minutes!

https://i.imgur.com/9hFR0y7.gif



and loon and stormcenter were just ignored completely! I SEE HOW IT IS!! hahahah
3 likes   

User avatar
lisa0825
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 120
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:05 pm
Location: Texas City

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1143 Postby lisa0825 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:11 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Same people that said tropical storm Michael that turned into a Cat 5



Where have you been? :lol:

I said yesterday, there's no doubt in my mind that if shear hadn't been there, this system could have been a major, at least a Cat 3. We got very lucky in Houston.


About the same thing Eric Berger at Space City Weather said:
https://spacecityweather.com/it-may-not ... -nicholas/
So this morning I’m thinking about what would have happened if we had not had some wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico yesterday, or if Nicholas had been able to consolidate a more well defined and consistent center of circulation. It would have been much, much worse for all of us had a significantly stronger hurricane made landfall last night. So while we pick up the pieces this morning, realize Nicholas could have been much more of a terror.


I tell ya what, we'd have been SOL because no one around here (Galveston County) was boarded up or remotely prepared for a stronger storm, myself included.
:double:
5 likes   

Craters
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 263
Joined: Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:34 pm
Location: Alvin, TX (south of Houston)

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1144 Postby Craters » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:02 pm

If you're looking for information about power outages, try this site:

https://poweroutage.us/

Click on your state of choice. The info is kind of coarse, but it might help answer some questions you might have, at least...
0 likes   
Nothing that I post here should ever be treated as a forecast or anything resembling one. Please check with your local NWS office or the NHC for forecasts, watches, and warnings.

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 415
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1145 Postby jconsor » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:18 pm

3 likes   

LARanger
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 63
Joined: Wed Oct 07, 2020 12:45 pm

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1146 Postby LARanger » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:22 pm

MGC wrote:{Louisiana} gonna be a swamp in the coming days


Of course, the problem is, "swamp" is our everyday *starting point*. Add in ridiculous flatness such that water drainage never achieves much velocity (allowing 'pile-up' a la 2016), factor in our reliance on the Gulf for output (potentially nullified in surge conditions), and it doesn't take much to overwhelm the works.
5 likes   
Baton Rouge area cyclone dilettante, PSWAGGER* tropical weather & hydrology model developer
(* Pseudo-Scientific Wild-A** Guesses Generally Expressed Ridiculously)
The GFDL would've had all this figured out by now.

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 7785
Age: 47
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1147 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:50 pm

It’s been breezy here. Yard covered is leaves and pine needles but nothing too crazy. Only 1.47” here since midnight. I’ve had many summertime thunderstorms with more rain than that.
1 likes   

wicked_wx_watcher
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 52
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2007 12:56 pm
Location: Clear Lake City/Webster, TX

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1148 Postby wicked_wx_watcher » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:50 pm

loon wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:I was about to post the same thing…..it must be
a radar illusion right?

loon wrote:Radar eyes are messing with me again this morning, i swear that spin is heading back into the GOM, i know some models predicted maybe that would happen. *bears watching* I guess. got about 4" of rain here in downtown, 35.2 MPH winds sustained at peak.


tolakram wrote:You two beat me by a few minutes!

https://i.imgur.com/9hFR0y7.gif



and loon and stormcenter were just ignored completely! I SEE HOW IT IS!! hahahah


Two hours ago we were on the NNE of remnants of the eye wall. It’s raining again, checked the radar and we’re on the west side now. Radar now places the eye almost over Galveston. Looks like it’s heading back to the gulf.
1 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 7785
Age: 47
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1149 Postby jasons2k » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:52 pm


The winds from Rita were much worse than this - at least up here in Southern Montgomery County. We had lots of downed trees in the neighborhood after Rita - not this time.
1 likes   

capNstorms
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1150 Postby capNstorms » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:11 pm

This thing is creeping back in the gulf and stalling like the icon was showing it would :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
CypressMike
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:28 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1151 Postby CypressMike » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:20 pm

Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night. :)
Last edited by CypressMike on Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Weather for the Bridgeland community of Cypress, TX
http://bridgelandweather.com/

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1152 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:21 pm

capNstorms wrote:This thing is creeping back in the gulf and stalling like the icon was showing it would :double:


ICON has shown some value the last couple seasons - at times.
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1153 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:25 pm

CypressMike wrote:Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night. :)


He is a badass professional. Yaakov is the best research met on the site that I know of. I do agree on the wind issue.
3 likes   

underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1533
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Sweeny Texas Brazoria County

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1154 Postby underthwx » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:32 pm

No power here in my area....about 18 minutes from Sargent Texas.....somehow I have wifi ATM....got a power line and poles down in the front yard....trees down everywhere....but all s good other than that....last night was rockin and rolling for sure....be safe all...
2 likes   

Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3370
Age: 35
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1155 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:43 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
CypressMike
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 34
Joined: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:28 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1156 Postby CypressMike » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:43 pm

Steve wrote:
CypressMike wrote:Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night. :)


He is a badass professional. Yaakov is the best research met on the site that I know of. I do agree on the wind issue.


I know - that's why I immediately edited my post once I re-read his tweet. I thought he had left Ike completely off the list, but it was my dumb mistake for sleep-reading it! :lol:
1 likes   
Weather for the Bridgeland community of Cypress, TX
http://bridgelandweather.com/

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8345
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1157 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:46 pm

CypressMike wrote:
Steve wrote:
CypressMike wrote:Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night. :)


He is a badass professional. Yaakov is the best research met on the site that I know of. I do agree on the wind issue.


I know - that's why I immediately edited my post once I re-read his tweet. I thought he had left Ike completely off the list, but it was my dumb mistake for sleep-reading it! :lol:


Word. We all lose sleep every year there are threats. I’m about to take a nap so I can be up for the next several bands that find their way to New Orleans.
3 likes   

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 415
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1158 Postby jconsor » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:47 pm

Thanks for your comments on Rita! I had not considered Rita in depth when posting the initial tweet. I updated my Tweet thread to reflect Rita in comparison to Nicholas.

It's important to emphasize that my assessment of most severe hurricane impacts reflects the portion of the Houston metro area that is closer to the coast, mainly Galveston, Brazoria, Harris and Fort Bend counties.

jasons2k wrote:

The winds from Rita were much worse than this - at least up here in Southern Montgomery County. We had lots of downed trees in the neighborhood after Rita - not this time.
4 likes   

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6537
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1159 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:55 pm

As the center nears the Gulf convection has started to
increase a little.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormgodess
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:31 am

Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1160 Postby Stormgodess » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:58 pm

Hey guys *hugs*

Due to Ida, Im back to having horrible internet/cell service. Cant get any of the images and maps to work...

Is Nicholas possibly going back out into the gulf? What are the steering factors going on right now.

:cry:

And can anyone tell me if NWS takes into account Treefall debris along waterways, when they do their Hydrologic river predictions?
2 likes   


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests