ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3661
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#1 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:53 am

Models only here please.
0 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 449
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:11 am

00Z GFS Total Rainfall

Image

00 ECMWF Total Rainfall

Image

00Z ECMWF Control Model Total Rainfall

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 449
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:28 am

00Z NAVGEM Model run

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5959
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:33 am

06z HWRF keeps this too close to the coast to become anything beyond a TD or weak TS.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 449
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:41 am

06Z GEFS Ensemble Run

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 449
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:53 am

00Z EPS Ensemble Run (Some members stalling)

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5959
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:54 am

06z HMON focuses on the EPac. I’m guessing both hurricane models will struggle until they have a defined center to latch on to.
1 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 449
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:07 am

06Z Icon Model Run

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 13828
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:36 am

06z Euro shifts back to the east of a solution of a coast rider from Brownsville up to Corpus Christi. We could be seeing the usual west biased Euro in the western GOM.
It shows a not so bad UL winds while over southern TX.

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 13828
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:38 am

aspen wrote:06z HMON focuses on the EPac. I’m guessing both hurricane models will struggle until they have a defined center to latch on to.


I don't even pay attention to the HMON even after the storm has formed, it has done horrible, it was way west biased with Ida, so was the HWRF.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 13828
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#11 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:52 am

According to the Euro, ICON and GFS by this time tomorrow we will have a developing circulation down in the BOC.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 449
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:51 am

06Z EPS Ensemble Run

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2747
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby SoupBone » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:01 am

Is the 06Z GFS just out to lunch? It brings it to the EAST of Galveston/Houston and into SWLA.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Clearcloudz
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 449
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:46 pm
Location: Rosenberg TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby Clearcloudz » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:07 am

SoupBone wrote:Is the 06Z GFS just out to lunch? It brings it to the EAST of Galveston/Houston and into SWLA.


It would be a outlier unless the other models start trending that way.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman22
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 756
Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:39 am
Location: Houston,Tx
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby wxman22 » Sat Sep 11, 2021 10:24 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5959
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby aspen » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:16 am

Huge east shift on the 12z GFS. It doesn’t have landfall until about 78 hours out, giving it up to two full days over water.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 May 2018 New England Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida ‘21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3661
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:22 am

aspen wrote:Huge east shift on the 12z GFS. It doesn’t have landfall until about 78 hours out, giving it up to two full days over water.


The GFS has been very inconsistent with this system. I'm not trusting it right now.
1 likes   

IcyTundra
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Galveston County, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:25 am

GFS is east biased and the Euro is west biased split the difference and you get somewhere along the Central Texas coast.
0 likes   
Ike 2008, Bill 2015, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019, Beta 2020, Nicholas 2021

IcyTundra
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm
Location: Galveston County, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby IcyTundra » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:26 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
aspen wrote:Huge east shift on the 12z GFS. It doesn’t have landfall until about 78 hours out, giving it up to two full days over water.


The GFS has been very inconsistent with this system. I'm not trusting it right now.


Euro has been more consistent and the operational GFS is still on the far eastern end of the ensemble guidance.
0 likes   
Ike 2008, Bill 2015, Harvey 2017, Imelda 2019, Beta 2020, Nicholas 2021

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 125143
Age: 65
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 11, 2021 11:38 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2021”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MarioProtVI and 4 guests