ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

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Clearcloudz
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#201 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:28 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:The reason why the GFS is showing less rainfall is because it doesn’t stall it out like the Euro does.



It's interesting how that's such a major difference in the two right now. The GFS zips it on out of here.



Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.


Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#202 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:33 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:

It's interesting how that's such a major difference in the two right now. The GFS zips it on out of here.



Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.


Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif


Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#203 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:36 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:

Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.


Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif


Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.


Yeah track changes will be coming once the 00Z runs come in NHC needs to see how much substance this stalling has once the 00Z runs show consistency
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#204 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:36 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:

Yeah, huge difference. The EPS also has many members that stall it out or move it very slowly as well.


Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif


Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.


That would also change where the most rain will fall. At this point, it's likely someone will get a lot of rain, but it's a complete crap shoot as to where.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#205 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:41 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:
Even GEFS run show a decent amount of members stalling once moving inland. @soupbone I'm not saying EURO is correct on rainfall but it might be correct on stalling part and we just don't know 100 percent yet.
https://i.imgur.com/YEZjlhE.gif


Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.


That would also change where the most rain will fall. At this point, it's likely someone will get a lot of rain, but it's a complete crap shoot as to where.


Hey Soup let us know what the 18Z EURO shows once it comes in.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#206 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:46 pm

18Z HWRF has to be a joke lol

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#207 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:50 pm

The GFS was bad with Harvey early on and had the LLC moving inland and west for the longest time. The NHC shows a depression slowing down so I think a slow storm with more precip than the GFS predicts is possible. I doubt it's as much as the euro shows.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#208 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:53 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Oh wow, that’s interesting. I haven’t even looked at the GEFS yet. It seems like the NHC track has it stalling or moving very slowly too but much further north.


That would also change where the most rain will fall. At this point, it's likely someone will get a lot of rain, but it's a complete crap shoot as to where.


Hey Soup let us know what the 18Z EURO shows once it comes in.


18 hours making landfall as a sloppy mess on the Tex/Mex border.

21 hours pressure at 1014mb at the tip of South Texas.

24 hours starting to skirt the coast, very sloppy system.

27 hours starting tighten up at 1007 mb.

30 hours riding the coast due south of Corpus Christi at 1001mb.
Last edited by SoupBone on Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#209 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:57 pm

18 Z euro border landfall

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#210 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:59 pm

tolakram wrote:18 Z euro border landfall

https://i.imgur.com/4qymZ6K.png


Looks like a very slight shift East but nothing drastic so far
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#211 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 6:59 pm

at 36 hours it's due west of Matagorda by about 40 miles at 1001mb.

It's moving very slowly.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#212 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:00 pm

Correction, decent shift east from 30-39 hours
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#213 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:02 pm

34h
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#214 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:03 pm

At 48 hours it's very slowly moving north. Can't see the mb but it's sloppy. It's over San Marcos.

At 54 hours it's over Austin or close to it, slowly moving NNE.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#215 Postby catskillfire51 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:05 pm

SoupBone wrote:At 48 hours it's very slowly moving north. Can't see the mb but it's sloppy. It's over San Marcos.

At 54 hours it's over Austin or close to it, slowly moving NNE.


1004MB
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#216 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:07 pm

63 hours west of Houston by about 30 miles, pressure at 1024mb.

69 hours, here comes the stall.
Last edited by SoupBone on Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#217 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:07 pm

53h precip

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#218 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:09 pm

72 hours still sitting west of Houston.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#219 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:12 pm

81 hours, sitting slightly west of Houston but some of it would be right on top of the area. 84 hours, still there. So that would be 20 hours of rain on Houston.
Last edited by SoupBone on Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#220 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:13 pm

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