ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#221 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:14 pm

Ends at 90 hours still sitting on Houston.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#222 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:15 pm

I remember not believing the Harvey rainfall model totals. Really hard to believe one model, and hopefully if Nick stays offshore this won't verify.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#223 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:18 pm

We had over 50 in of rain with Harvey. My town was like an island and basically no way in or out. Not looking forward to this rain for East Tx.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#224 Postby Nimbus » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:19 pm

So this run of the Euro stalls close to the coast.
Running out of time for a consensus but as WXman57 suggests just remain calm and hope this gulps a lot of dry air or something.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#225 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:19 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#226 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:23 pm

Interesting that the Euro goes against the idea that areas closest to the coast will receive the most rainfall instead suggesting that areas inland could be looking at the most rain. Then again the Euro is pretty much the furthest west out of all of the models and as we all know models have a very hard time with predicting exact rainfall totals. Right now I am trusting the NHC forecast with a landfall near Matagorda Bay as usually they are very accurate this close to landfall.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#227 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:24 pm

So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#228 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:27 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.


This is very odd. Your forecast is your forecast. Why not forecast 20" if that's what they think? Makes no sense and is somewhat reckless.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#229 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:27 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.

I have never heard that before but in general it is very hard to predict exact rain amounts for specific areas and rainfall forecasts can often be conservative due to the uncertainty, but the other hand you could easily end up with less rainfall than is predicted for your area.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#230 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:28 pm

SoupBone wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.


This is very odd. Your forecast is your forecast. Why not forecast 20" if that's what they think? Makes no sense and is somewhat reckless.


Sounds like media sensationalism/hype to me for ratings.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#231 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:29 pm

SoupBone wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.


This is very odd. Your forecast is your forecast. Why not forecast 20" if that's what they think? Makes no sense and is somewhat reckless.


They have been saying that with the last couple of storms. Not sure why. I will ask on the next briefing at 10:30pm.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#232 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:32 pm



Wow I'm scared now. My area has made a lot of improvements to make sure it doesn't flood like it has in the past but :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#233 Postby kassi » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:33 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.


This is very odd. Your forecast is your forecast. Why not forecast 20" if that's what they think? Makes no sense and is somewhat reckless.


Sounds like media sensationalism/hype to me for ratings.


sphelps8681 is talking about NWS LCH, who forecasts for extreme SE TX and they don't tend to hype things. Unfortunately, the weather here and in Louisiana the past few years hasn't "needed" hyping. :roll:
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#234 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:33 pm

18z Euro has a lot less coverage on rainfall than the 12z did. These rainfall forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot right now as far as location goes. These high totals could be anywhere.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#235 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:35 pm

Cpv17 wrote:18z Euro has a lot less coverage on rainfall than the 12z did. These rainfall forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot right now.



You go from the GFS which dumps a lot of rain, but manageable to the Euro that stalls out and creates very obvious flooding issues. It's pretty nuts.
Last edited by SoupBone on Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#236 Postby Senobia » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:36 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.


If you're talking about Donald Jones out of Lake Charles, he clearly said to double it to understand the potential of heavier rainfall in certain areas due to training bands, if they happen. They're going to happen somewhere, he just doesn't know where. He was speaking more in terms of worst case scenario.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#237 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:37 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:18z Euro has a lot less coverage on rainfall than the 12z did. These rainfall forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot right now.



You go from the GFS which dumps a lot of rain, but manageable to the Euro that stalls out and creates very obvious flooding issues. It's pretty nuts.


Hopefully NHC and NWS have a good grip on this by tomorrow morning at the latest.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#238 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:42 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:18z Euro has a lot less coverage on rainfall than the 12z did. These rainfall forecasts are pretty much a crapshoot right now.



You go from the GFS which dumps a lot of rain, but manageable to the Euro that stalls out and creates very obvious flooding issues. It's pretty nuts.


Hopefully NHC and NWS have a good grip on this by tomorrow morning at the latest.


NHC said in their 4PM advisory discussion that the GFS has been the more consistent model so they are leaning more towards the GFS solution which is stronger and further east than the euro meaning the rain totals will be slightly less than what the euro is showing.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#239 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:44 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:
SoupBone wrote:

You go from the GFS which dumps a lot of rain, but manageable to the Euro that stalls out and creates very obvious flooding issues. It's pretty nuts.


Hopefully NHC and NWS have a good grip on this by tomorrow morning at the latest.


NHC said in their 4PM advisory discussion that the GFS has been the more consistent model so they are leaning more towards the GFS solution which is stronger and further east than the euro meaning the rain totals will be slightly less than what the euro is showing.


It's not slightly less though. It's the difference between 9 manageable inches versus 15-20". I really hope the GFS is right.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#240 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:45 pm

SoupBone wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:
Hopefully NHC and NWS have a good grip on this by tomorrow morning at the latest.


NHC said in their 4PM advisory discussion that the GFS has been the more consistent model so they are leaning more towards the GFS solution which is stronger and further east than the euro meaning the rain totals will be slightly less than what the euro is showing.


It's not slightly less though. It's the difference between 9 manageable inches versus 15-20". I really hope the GFS is right.

True but you know what I was trying to say.
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