ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#241 Postby sphelps8681 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 7:45 pm

Senobia wrote:
sphelps8681 wrote:So on the live briefings of the NWS in my area they all ways say that what rain they forecast you need to double it. Why is that? They are forecasting 10-15 in in my area but we need to double that. Just curious as to why.


If you're talking about Donald Jones out of Lake Charles, he clearly said to double it to understand the potential of heavier rainfall in certain areas due to training bands, if they happen. They're going to happen somewhere, he just doesn't know where. He was speaking more in terms of worst case scenario.


I understand that but he was talking everyone from se tx to la not just sw la. So not sure if that is a thing they do. I will still ask at the 10:30 briefing.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#242 Postby lsuhurricane » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:31 pm

TVCN doesnt really deviate much upon landfall from its 18z track. Its beyond landfall where the current NHC track differs greatly from the current TVCN.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#243 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:37 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:TVCN doesnt really deviate much upon landfall from its 18z track. Its beyond landfall where the current NHC track differs greatly from the current TVCN.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png


That’s actually a massive east shift. Not landfall, but afterwards. That would put the worst of the weather into extreme southeast TX and into Louisiana. Houston area would be alright. Definitely manageable rainfall totals with that track.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#244 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:40 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:TVCN doesnt really deviate much upon landfall from its 18z track. Its beyond landfall where the current NHC track differs greatly from the current TVCN.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png


That’s actually a massive east shift. Not landfall, but afterwards.



Where's the previous TVCN? This would benefit Houston for sure as that would keep most of the rain offshore, but not good for Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#245 Postby jaguars_22 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:44 pm

Ok so now that those models shifted away from Victoria doesn’t look so badly here. I can’t believe the models are jumping around so much 24 hrs out
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#246 Postby LSU Saint » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:47 pm

So this new model helps Houston even though it would pass right over Houston?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#247 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:49 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Ok so now that those models shifted away from Victoria doesn’t look so badly here. I can’t believe the models are jumping around so much 24 hrs out


Yeah, definitely annoying. Just when I thought I was going to get some good rain here. Oh well I’m still holding out hope for a few inches.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#248 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:49 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
lsuhurricane wrote:TVCN doesnt really deviate much upon landfall from its 18z track. Its beyond landfall where the current NHC track differs greatly from the current TVCN.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png


That’s actually a massive east shift. Not landfall, but afterwards.



Where's the previous TVCN? This would benefit Houston for sure as that would keep most of the rain offshore, but not good for Louisiana.


Previous TVCN was near Port Aransas now it is on the east side of Matagorda Bay about 100 miles west of Galveston.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#249 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:52 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
That’s actually a massive east shift. Not landfall, but afterwards.



Where's the previous TVCN? This would benefit Houston for sure as that would keep most of the rain offshore, but not good for Louisiana.


Previous TVCN was near Port Aransas now it is on the east side of Matagorda Bay about 100 miles west of Galveston.



So if you're in Houston, your choices are do you want to be punched in the face or punched in the stomach. Great.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#250 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 8:55 pm

LSU Saint wrote:So this new model helps Houston even though it would pass right over Houston?


Yes the closer this comes into Houston the better it will be in terms of flooding. Coastal areas along Galveston Bay and Galveston Island would most likely see TS force winds or at the very least TS force gusts but we can easily handle that down here compared to massive flooding if it comes in further west.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#251 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:09 pm

18Z EPS Ensemble Run

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#252 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:12 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:18Z EPS Ensemble Run

https://i.imgur.com/VSpEaAZ.gif


That’s nothing at all like the 0z hurricane models.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#253 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:15 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:TVCN doesnt really deviate much upon landfall from its 18z track. Its beyond landfall where the current NHC track differs greatly from the current TVCN.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png


ummmmm just a quick update Those are called the early models. They take the 18Z tracks and shift them based on where the center was located at 00Z. So it's not a new model run. Can a pro please help explain this?
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#254 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:18 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:18Z EPS Ensemble Run

https://i.imgur.com/VSpEaAZ.gif


That’s nothing at all like the 0z hurricane models.


EPS is derived from the Euro which is the furthest west out of all the major models makes sense that the EPS is west like the euro is too.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#255 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:20 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Clearcloudz wrote:18Z EPS Ensemble Run

https://i.imgur.com/VSpEaAZ.gif


That’s nothing at all like the 0z hurricane models.


EPS is derived from the Euro which is the furthest west out of all the major models makes sense that the EPS is west like the euro is too.


Yeah, I know. I’m just not a fan at all of what I saw from the 0z tropical models.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#256 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:31 pm

Matt Lanza of Space City Weather isn't buying the euro and is leaning more towards the GFS and other tropical models like the HWRF. He says we will have to watch the overnight euro run to see if it caves towards the GFS and other models or if it still insists on a weaker slower moving storm that would dump lots of rain.He says the main reason why he isn't buying the euro is because the highest rain totals are further inland and he thinks the highest rain totals will be closer to the coast.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#257 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:34 pm

IcyTundra wrote:Matt Lanza of Space City Weather isn't buying the euro and is leaning more towards the GFS and other tropical models like the HWRF. He says we will have to watch the overnight euro run to see if it caves towards the GFS and other models or if it still insists on a weaker slower moving storm that would dump lots of rain.He says the main reason why he isn't buying the euro is because the highest rain totals are further inland and he thinks the highest rain totals will be closer to the coast.



https://spacecityweather.com/upgrading-to-a-stage-3-flood-alert-as-we-watch-forecast-trends-with-nicholas/
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#258 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:39 pm

Look at the moisture train on the 18Z EURO goes all the way to EPAC. That is very juicy. :D

Image
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#259 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:48 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:Look at the moisture train on the 18Z EURO goes all the way to EPAC. That is very juicy. :D

https://i.imgur.com/QLEW4Nj.jpg

Well that sure would explain the massive rain totals the Euro has been putting out. Don't think it is going to happen the way the Euro is showing but it is certainly still a possibility.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#260 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:52 pm

Looks like the GFS is going to be closer to being right than the Euro. Center reformation aligns with the general idea that the GFS has been showing in today's runs.
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