ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

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Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#81 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:28 pm

I have been quite curious about this, but does anybody have an idea on why we're seeing such a strong TUTT in a year that is supposed to trend toward possible moderate La Nina later? Is this strong of a TUTT in late September possible in La Nina years? I thought the point of La Ninas was that they reduced shear in the Atlantic, especially late season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#82 Postby Weather Dude » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:30 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I have been quite curious about this, but does anybody have an idea on why we're seeing such a strong TUTT in a year that is supposed to trend toward possible moderate La Nina later? Is this strong of a TUTT in late September possible in La Nina years? I thought the point of La Ninas was that they reduced shear in the Atlantic, especially late season.

Last September had a TUTT problem as well so I don't think it's an ENSO issue but idk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#83 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:31 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I have been quite curious about this, but does anybody have an idea on why we're seeing such a strong TUTT in a year that is supposed to trend toward possible moderate La Nina later? Is this strong of a TUTT in late September possible in La Nina years? I thought the point of La Ninas was that they reduced shear in the Atlantic, especially late season.

I think the TUTT will be enhanced by 96L and that might be why it could be so strong. Like the outflow from 96L if it is stronger would benefit the ULL because that would feed it. I am not very knowledgeable on how exactly TUTTs strengthen and what environment is favorable though so this is just an educated guess I am giving here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#84 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:43 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I have been quite curious about this, but does anybody have an idea on why we're seeing such a strong TUTT in a year that is supposed to trend toward possible moderate La Nina later? Is this strong of a TUTT in late September possible in La Nina years? I thought the point of La Ninas was that they reduced shear in the Atlantic, especially late season.

Last September had a TUTT problem as well so I don't think it's an ENSO issue but idk

2020’s early September TUTT was due to recurving typhoons enhancing it. Maybe Chanthu has gone from a ridge enhancer to a TUTT enhancer?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#85 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:46 pm

aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:I have been quite curious about this, but does anybody have an idea on why we're seeing such a strong TUTT in a year that is supposed to trend toward possible moderate La Nina later? Is this strong of a TUTT in late September possible in La Nina years? I thought the point of La Ninas was that they reduced shear in the Atlantic, especially late season.

Last September had a TUTT problem as well so I don't think it's an ENSO issue but idk

2020’s early September TUTT was due to recurving typhoons enhancing it. Maybe Chanthu has gone from a ridge enhancer to a TUTT enhancer?


Wasn't there were discussions about the typhoon pumping the ridge?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#86 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:59 pm

cycloneye wrote:
aspen wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:Last September had a TUTT problem as well so I don't think it's an ENSO issue but idk

2020’s early September TUTT was due to recurving typhoons enhancing it. Maybe Chanthu has gone from a ridge enhancer to a TUTT enhancer?


Wasn't there were discussions about the typhoon pumping the ridge?


There WAS. 48 plus hours ago. Crickets since.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#87 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:41 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are
becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected
to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves
generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#88 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:28 pm

Looks small and weak. Maybe the less bullish 12Z Euro and its ensembles are on to something:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#89 Postby Teban54 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:06 pm

Not surprised by the seemingly "slower than expected" organization. It seems to me that even in the most active MDR years (2017 included), we rarely see more than one storms develop immediately off the African coast and quickly intensity to a hurricane. The SST and OHC in the eastern Atlantic are just not high enough to support that.

If anything, the Euro probably spoiled us with its bias of intensifying waves too early and sending them too far north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#90 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:15 pm

Teban54 wrote:Not surprised by the seemingly "slower than expected" organization. It seems to me that even in the most active MDR years (2017 included), we rarely see more than one storms develop immediately off the African coast and quickly intensity to a hurricane. The SST and OHC in the eastern Atlantic are just not high enough to support that.

If anything, the Euro probably spoiled us with its bias of intensifying waves too early and sending them too far north.

Exactly right
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#91 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:19 pm

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
aspen wrote:2020’s early September TUTT was due to recurving typhoons enhancing it. Maybe Chanthu has gone from a ridge enhancer to a TUTT enhancer?


Wasn't there were discussions about the typhoon pumping the ridge?


There WAS. 48 plus hours ago. Crickets since.


Yeah, the Bahamas system threw a wrench in things IMHO. That'll likely develop into a TC in its on right and help steer 95L away from land regardless of the intensity. Lesser Antilles threat at most.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#92 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:08 am

Seems to be taking advantage of DMax
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#93 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:25 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#94 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:05 am

Odette is actually over fairly warm water, with an even warmer stretch just ahead of it.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#95 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:00 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:I have been quite curious about this, but does anybody have an idea on why we're seeing such a strong TUTT in a year that is supposed to trend toward possible moderate La Nina later? Is this strong of a TUTT in late September possible in La Nina years? I thought the point of La Ninas was that they reduced shear in the Atlantic, especially late season.


The gulf storms probably increased the ridging centering that further west, take a look at the current sharp trough digging south off Florida in the WV imagery. 96L might be forming too early to leave a weakness its a pretty random prediction this far out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#96 Postby abajan » Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:01 am

grapealcoholic wrote:Odette is actually over fairly warm water, with an even warmer stretch just ahead of it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2021091500/hwrf-p_sst_noice_95L_3.png

You mean what we presume will become Odette.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#97 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:04 am

abajan wrote:
grapealcoholic wrote:Odette is actually over fairly warm water, with an even warmer stretch just ahead of it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2021091500/hwrf-p_sst_noice_95L_3.png

You mean what we presume will become Odette.


Just for funsies, if 96L steals the name Odette and 95L instead becomes Peter, I would love to see what the pre-namers would say then; while not a huge deal at the moment, pre-naming is generally not the best idea, especially when you have competitive AOIs like this. Anyways, I wonder what 95L’s long term prospects look like with it taking longer to develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#98 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:24 am

I am very suspect about the current forecasted track.
The African Easterly Jet has dramatically dissipated, so steering is pretty much dictated by how long this can remain a wave.
Nothing at 500mb to push this one way or another.
When it gets to about 55W it'll start to encounter a strong TUTT at the Virgin Islands.
Any move of 95L into the TUTT would shred it to pieces.
I can see this more staying weak and LL vort being further south than what GFS is currently depicting.
Maybe 50/50 this runs the Carib.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#99 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:54 am

GCANE wrote:I am very suspect about the current forecasted track.
The African Easterly Jet has dramatically dissipated, so steering is pretty much dictated by how long this can remain a wave.
Nothing at 500mb to push this one way or another.
When it gets to about 55W it'll start to encounter a strong TUTT at the Virgin Islands.
Any move of 95L into the TUTT would shred it to pieces.
I can see this more staying weak and LL vort being further south than what GFS is currently depicting.
Maybe 50/50 this runs the Carib.


You make an interesting point. If 95L takes longer to develop, then I would have to imagine that it would simply move more westward; in fact, if it were to get stronger quicker, it would likely turn north more readily, and if the TUTT is positioned morth of the islands, then a stronger storm in the short run would mean it would smash into the TUTT and weaken considerably. However, if it stays weak but survives, it'll likely move into a position where a storm positioned somewhere in the Caribbean Sea cannot be ruled out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#100 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 15, 2021 8:19 am

AL, 95, 2021091512, , BEST, 0, 102N, 261W, 30, 1009, DB
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