ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

[MGC]

I think the 70% short term probability is a bit generous....more like 50/50. Devoid of intense convection. Perhaps this weekend it will develop. Wave behind it looks much better......MGC

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like a wave axis now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like a wave axis now.

Negatively tilted waves usually develop closer to the islands when convergence increases and the axis lends itself to better help with rotation.

[gatorcane]

I think the 70% short term probability is a bit generous....more like 50/50. Devoid of intense convection. Perhaps this weekend it will develop. Wave behind it looks much better......MGC

Agreed it might be code red still when it is halfway across the Atlantic. The NHC did make this code red too early but you can’t fault them since the models really have performed poorly with this one only recently correcting themselves.

Wonder when we get some wording in the NHC outlook that conditions look to be less favorable by early next week or something to that extent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hurricaneman]

It’s possible this may not develop due to -CCKW and unfavorable mjo conditions

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1438541542831034370

[grapealcoholic]

HWRF has been consistent on this system slowly developing next 48 hours. Strong signal imo

[Spacecoast]

Rough road ahead..

[Nimbus]

HWRF has been consistent on this system slowly developing next 48 hours. Strong signal imo

Convective pattern may need to bloom a couple more times since the shear is over running the surface low from the east.

You would expect this more in August rather than the peak of the season but there it is.

The interpolated surface wind products that showed a closed low must use some kind of relative motion algorithm that still needs work..

[abajan]

https://i.ibb.co/qmJ2PM7/ecmbu.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/bR8fqcj/ecmbl.jpg

https://i.ibb.co/2y725kv/ecmbv.jpg
Rough road ahead..
https://i.ibb.co/NxTSSXt/ecmbz.jpg

The 12z Surface Pressure Analysis places the low around 8N (or so it seems).

[SFLcane]

HWRF has been consistent on this system slowly developing next 48 hours. Strong signal imo

When doesn’t it have a strong signal.

[grapealcoholic]

HWRF has been consistent on this system slowly developing next 48 hours. Strong signal imo

When doesn’t it have a strong signal.

It's never had development at this point going all the way back to the first run for 95L. That being said trends are moving towards it going OTS regardless of development

[aspen]

HWRF has been consistent on this system slowly developing next 48 hours. Strong signal imo

When doesn’t it have a strong signal.

At least it has a reasonable progression in the next 48 hours. 95L remains pretty anemic on this run until it finally starts popping some more convection tomorrow morning, and finally becomes a TC about 24-36 hours later. If it has a TS by tomorrow afternoon, then I would say ignore it.

It’ll be pretty easy to determine if the HWRF is right or not: if 95L remains an anemic disturbance even by Friday afternoon, the HWRF is wrong. If it’s looking healthier with popping and slowly organizing convection, the HWRF could be right.

[Stormybajan]

95L is looking a bit juicier on visible right now than yesterday however still nothing concentrated

[grapealcoholic]

Convection picking up at DMIN near 40/8 where CIMSS has peak 850mb vorticity

[IcyTundra]

Another MDR system that is going to have issues developing seems like the trend ever since the 2018 season.

[Teban54]

Another MDR system that is going to have issues developing seems like the trend ever since the 2018 season.

2018 had C2 Helene (almost a major in the eastern MDR), C1 Isaac and C1 Florence that became a C4 just north of the MDR boundaries. 2019 had C4 Lorenzo and C2 Jerry. 2020 had C4 Teddy. 2021 had C3 Larry. They definitely don't count as struggling to me, unless the comparison uses 2004/10/17 as baselines.

I'm also not sure if that's indeed a trend or just a coincidence of unfortunate random factors. 2018 had a developing El Nino, 2020 had a typhoon-induced TUTT, and 2021 had a weird cycle of intraseasonal signals. Especially 2020 and 2021 - these factors are pretty much out of control even with favorable conditions otherwise.

[abajan]

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized and somewhat limited
in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure
located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could still form over the weekend. This system is expected to move
westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.