ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:07 am

AL, 95, 2021091306, , BEST, 0, 91N, 122W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034, SPAWNINVEST, al772021 to al952021,
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:44 am

9.1N, 12.2W Off the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby ouragans » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:47 am

tolakram wrote:9.1N, 12.2W Off the coast.

12.2W should be near the coast, still over Sierra Leone :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:50 am

I have a question, and any insight would be wonderfully appreciated: how do we know this won't be a case like Irma in which the PVS moved out of the storm's way, if I recall correctly?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:51 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:55 am

ouragans wrote:
tolakram wrote:9.1N, 12.2W Off the coast.

12.2W should be near the coast, still over Sierra Leone :wink:

Yep. Pendembu, Sierra Leone, according to Google Maps. :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:11 am

The big question about this thread will be if it joins the list of 20 most posts for a thread that kevin has in this thread. It depends on how the system does and how it tracks as it can be a longtracker or not, how strong it gets and when it dissipates.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:21 am

cycloneye wrote:The big question about this thread will be if it joins the list of 20 most posts for a thread that kevin has in this thread. It depends on how the system does and how it tracks as it can be a longtracker or not, how strong it gets and when it dissipates.

Preferably not because that would likely mean a no impact scenario. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:26 am

That PVS will be the key component that defines everything about 95L/Odette after the 5-6 day mark — intensity, track, and land impacts. Still plenty of time to watch it, and it’s a pretty new factor, only appearing on the models as of yesterday. Odette’s intensity as it approaches the PVS (assuming it’s in that exact location in 5-6 days and doesn’t move out of the way like with Irma) could also be a major factor. A stronger storm could survive, while a weaker would probably get ripped to shreds and either take a while to recover or stay dead for good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby hipshot » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:30 am

aspen wrote:That PVS will be the key component that defines everything about 95L/Odette after the 5-6 day mark — intensity, track, and land impacts. Still plenty of time to watch it, and it’s a pretty new factor, only appearing on the models as of yesterday. Odette’s intensity as it approaches the PVS (assuming it’s in that exact location in 5-6 days and doesn’t move out of the way like with Irma) could also be a major factor. A stronger storm could survive, while a weaker would probably get ripped to shreds and either take a while to recover or stay dead for good.

What is a PVS? Thks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:42 am

hipshot wrote:
aspen wrote:That PVS will be the key component that defines everything about 95L/Odette after the 5-6 day mark — intensity, track, and land impacts. Still plenty of time to watch it, and it’s a pretty new factor, only appearing on the models as of yesterday. Odette’s intensity as it approaches the PVS (assuming it’s in that exact location in 5-6 days and doesn’t move out of the way like with Irma) could also be a major factor. A stronger storm could survive, while a weaker would probably get ripped to shreds and either take a while to recover or stay dead for good.

What is a PVS? Thks

Potential Vorticity Streamer, in a nutshell Cyclonic- circulations in the Atmosphere of non-tropical origin( mostly I think) brings shear and dry air that help dismantle TC activity or development
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:48 am

Okay so I was not to far off, learned about them a few years back when studying but here is a good go-by
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:01 am

Kohlecane wrote:Okay so I was not to far off, learned about them a few years back when studying but here is a good go-by
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Slide10.png

Image

Pretty pronounced in the GFS. Something to watch for is if this pinches off and weakens or moves away in tandem, then this will actually aid in intensifying 95L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:12 am

12z Best Track:

95L INVEST 210913 1200 9.1N 14.0W ATL 20 1010


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:27 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:37 am

How did the TUTT/PVS in front of Irma evolve and how was it forecast? I know it ended up moving out of the way but nothing more besides that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby Kohlecane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:51 am

AutoPenalti wrote:
Kohlecane wrote:Okay so I was not to far off, learned about them a few years back when studying but here is a good go-by
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Slide10.png

https://i.imgur.com/IPXzoV5.jpg

Pretty pronounced in the GFS. Something to watch for is if this pinches off and weakens or moves away in tandem, then this will actually aid in intensifying 95L.

And I'm a realist and it is a potential that can happen, sadly we don't have the graphics we have now to compare, but looking back at disco's and archive data that similar to what Andrew encountered(cut off/movement in tandem) just a bit further north, just always something to keep an eye on TUTT/PVS sometimes can be very pronounced and then very quickly change, Grace is a good example there was a strong PVS ahead of it before getting to the UP and she kept marching onward, not significantly tearing her apart or weakening her
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:56 am

I seem to remember that a TUTT actually enhanced Irma. I'd have to research that a bit but said TUTT needs to be positioned almost perfectly in order to do so. I want to say that a cyclone that moves S and then SW of a TUTT can be a boon to the TC. I'm not 100% though. Obviously face planting right into it as modeling shows now is suicide.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:03 am



This is why I am not concerned with this wave, and am starting to doubt it will be a concern at all personally. Getting Jerry (2019) vibes here. It will really depend on how strong our east coast mess gets later this week. If that is stronger than we will probably see an even stronger TUTT than what is already shown. Even if 95L/future Odette is a strong hurricane, it will feel that. Either way, that TUTT isn't going anywhere. Then the question is if there is enough left to even get anywhere. Not under the impression the environment will truly be that favorable behind the TUTT based off of the last several model runs but I don't have access to ensembles from the EURO so I know that last bit could be entirely false :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:16 am

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437411870655356934




Also this....not to convinced at all with this one yet in terms of being a problem down the road.
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