ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#41 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:06 pm

A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the
system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#42 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:10 pm

Here's today's labelled SST map with the possible futures of Odette.

I did my best to mark where 95L/Odette should be in the next 168hr (by midday Sunday) and where the TUTT and its associated shear should be. It does extend further into the NE Atlantic, but that isn't relevant right now. The green track is close to the 12z GFS and represents the most SW solution: rapid weakening from the TUTT that leaves 95L, as a TD or an open wave, going more W/WNW. The blue track is the easternmost possible track and is close to the ICON's solution of an attempted early recurve. The purple track is close to what the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEFS show, and diverges because there's still a lot of spread from the ensembles that do keep it alive.
Image

If Odette is more on the NE side of possible tracks, it's done for. It'll be tracking over Larry's massive cold wake and therefore won't have much fuel to get strong enough to survive the TUTT. Even without the period of high shear, it'll still be screwed because of the cold wake.

A track that sticks further south in the next 4-5 days (between 11-13N by the time it's around 48-52W) will put Odette close to or over that tongue of 29-30C SSTs, giving it a last-minute boost before the TUTT. This could also result in a track close to that of the 12z GFS, but a stronger storm would gain a little more latitude and hopefully won't be that close to the islands.

If Odette survives the TUTT in some way (either by it being stronger or the TUTT being weaker), the region within 30N/60W is full of rocket fuel that could cause some serious RI. With the TUTT in play now, it seems that Odette's best opportunity to become anything is this weekend around 45-55W and 11-13.5N - before the wall of shear knocks it down multiple pegs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#43 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:12 pm

I think we have to focus more on the short term rather than the long term with this one. The long term is it may be a problem. Or it may not be. Whatever it does in the next few days will likely determine that. If it gets organized and intensifies sooner, it might get through the potential TUTT (which isn't set in stone yet either) and could be more of an issue down the line. Weaker storm could mean less of a threat, assuming the TUTT will be there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#44 Postby psyclone » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:25 pm

We're stuck waiting for 99-L to reappear in the rolodex.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#45 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:41 pm

psyclone wrote:We're stuck waiting for 99-L to reappear in the rolodex.


What's a rolodex?? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#46 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 13, 2021 3:41 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#47 Postby WiscoWx02 » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:29 pm

95L or whatever it becomes is likely going to be washed out at this point.
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437468299160342530




Not only that, but this too....
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437509092717830153




This tells me that this is a sloppy system in the making because it's broad system overall which is leading to all the disagreement so it will take longer to develop and have its chances of being annihilated by the TUTT much higher. Even if it gets its act together quickly, a TUTT like that doesn't give 95L much of a chance once it starts interacting with it. Dr. Ventrice talking about the -CCKW makes sense since they open a duct for TUTT development. Not every situation is like Irma, slim chance this plays out that way IMO. Not trying to sound like a bear here, even though I do, but I'm just calling it like I see it. If this post ages like milk, then I'll own up to it 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#48 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:46 pm

I still think this comes much further west than Larry.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#49 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:00 pm

Peak of the season so anything that has a couple days in a low shear environment is likely to spin up.
Just waiting and watching for an upper level trough further west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#50 Postby Stormybajan » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:05 pm

In 48 hours we should have a much much clearer idea with both track and intensity of whats going to happen with 95L. Wouldnt surprise me if the leewards are hit with a weakening tropical storm then quick dissipation afterwards. However at this moment every track=wise scenario is still on the table being atleast 5-6 days away from land
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#51 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:05 pm

While in no way am I suggesting that we will see a repeat, does anybody here have knowledge on what the conditions looked like in front of Andrew before it formed and during its early stages? Was it expected to die and not become anything during that time?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#52 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:16 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:While in no way am I suggesting that we will see a repeat, does anybody here have knowledge on what the conditions looked like in front of Andrew before it formed and during its early stages? Was it expected to die and not become anything during that time?



Andrew was the last pre internet huge 'cane. For the most part, all we had as amateurs was John Hope of TWC.

From wiki:
On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center, and the next day a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the pressure rose to an unusually high 1015 mbar. The flight indicated Andrew maintained a vigorous circulation aloft, with winds of 80 miles per hour (130 km/h) recorded at flight level. Subsequently, the upper-level low weakened and split into a trough, which decreased the wind shear over the storm. Simultaneously, a strong high pressure cell developed over the southeastern United States, which built eastward and caused Andrew to turn to the west.Convection became more organized as upper-level outflow became better established.An eye formed, and Andrew attained hurricane status early on August 22, while located about 650 miles (1,050 km) east-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.
Last edited by toad strangler on Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#53 Postby Nimbus » Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:24 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:While in no way am I suggesting that we will see a repeat, does anybody here have knowledge on what the conditions looked like in front of Andrew before it formed and during its early stages? Was it expected to die and not become anything during that time?


Andrew was a weak system north of Puerto Rico that tracked west when a trough split unexpectedly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#54 Postby Nuno » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:04 pm

Nimbus wrote:Peak of the season so anything that has a couple days in a low shear environment is likely to spin up.
Just waiting and watching for an upper level trough further west.


There's always one out there :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#55 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:04 pm

So here's something that I will say despite our position now as really uncertain about 95L's future. In recent years, while they are the slim but destructive and historic minority, we have seen from time to time storms that seemed to have no chance of amounting to anything, only for such thoughts to be completely turned upside-down as that storm unexpectedly encounters favorable conditions and takes advantage of them and becomes a monster that we still remember to this day. Irma was supposed to turn out to sea or succumb to a TUTT. Maria was supposed to hit the islands as a Category 3 hurricane at peak strength. Florence was supposed to turn out to sea. Michael was supposed to hit Florida as a minimal hurricane. Dorian was supposed to get shredded by Hispaniola, never to be seen again. With that being said, my point is that especially during the infant stages, many of these high-profile, powerful serial killer storms definitely at times sought doubts among hurricane trackers about whether they would truly become anything worth noting. In fact, I honestly cannot recall if any of the retired, monster hurricanes in the recent past was ever in a situation in which all of us were sure from start to finish that they would become the legendary monsters that we remember to this day. All it takes is the right, fortuitious conditions to come in place at the right place and time for a storm that looks like it would not become anything worthy and absolutely turn it into a beast. Such conditions cannot be 100% predicted many days in advance, which is why I think sometimes we are caught off guard and end up eating crow after doubting a historic storm's potential just because it seemed like it was struggling (and we of course automatically infer that such struggles represent the whole situation and conclude erroneously that that storm is done or will underperform; I remember this in particular after tracking Ida).

So with this being said, I am in no way saying that every system that forms in the Atlantic should always be considered to have the potential to become a monster and wreak havoc. However, let's face it: quite a few models have been hinting at 95L to become a decent TC, with quite a few EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ensemble members excited about its development and prospects. Now does this mean 95L will 100% become a land threat and a historic hurricane? No. It has obstacles, for now. However, with all of the shenanigans and nasty storms that have occurred in the recent past (and as I have mentioned earlier, with many of these kinds of storms having their potential not well understood during their early days), I personally am not ready to call off 95L just because there's always that slim chance that some of the aggressive models may be onto something and that our expectations are shattered and this system performs better than we expect it to.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#56 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:13 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:So here's something that I will say despite our position now as really uncertain about 95L's future. In recent years, while they are the slim but destructive and historic minority, we have seen from time to time storms that seemed to have no chance of amounting to anything, only for such thoughts to be completely turned upside-down as that storm unexpectedly encounters favorable conditions and takes advantage of them and becomes a monster that we still remember to this day. Irma was supposed to turn out to sea or succumb to a TUTT. Maria was supposed to hit the islands as a Category 3 hurricane at peak strength. Florence was supposed to turn out to sea. Michael was supposed to hit Florida as a minimal hurricane. Dorian was supposed to get shredded by Hispaniola, never to be seen again. With that being said, my point is that especially during the infant stages, many of these high-profile, powerful serial killer storms definitely at times sought doubts among hurricane trackers about whether they would truly become anything worth noting. In fact, I honestly cannot recall if any of the retired, monster hurricanes in the recent past was ever in a situation in which all of us were sure from start to finish that they would become the legendary monsters that we remember to this day. All it takes is the right, fortuitious conditions to come in place at the right place and time for a storm that looks like it would not become anything worthy and absolutely turn it into a beast. Such conditions cannot be 100% predicted many days in advance, which is why I think sometimes we are caught off guard and end up eating crow after doubting a historic storm's potential just because it seemed like it was struggling (and we of course automatically infer that such struggles represent the whole situation and conclude erroneously that that storm is done or will underperform; I remember this in particular after tracking Ida).

So with this being said, I am in no way saying that every system that forms in the Atlantic should always be considered to have the potential to become a monster and wreak havoc. However, let's face it: quite a few models have been hinting at 95L to become a decent TC, with quite a few EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ensemble members excited about its development and prospects. Now does this mean 95L will 100% become a land threat and a historic hurricane? No. It has obstacles, for now. However, with all of the shenanigans and nasty storms that have occurred in the recent past (and as I have mentioned earlier, with many of these kinds of storms having their potential not well understood during their early days), I personally am not ready to call off 95L just because there's always that slim chance that some of the aggressive models may be onto something and that our expectations are shattered and this system performs better than we expect it to.


Fast forward 30 years and you are 50. This will read:

"Meh, next"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#57 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:24 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:.


Fast forward 30 years and you are 50. This will read:

"Meh, next"


Best reply of 2021. Meaning no disrespect to the OP
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#58 Postby Weather Dude » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 pm

. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing an area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this disturbance over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by later this week while the
system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#59 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:10 pm

If that convection rolling off Africa with possible MLC is where the LLC ends up consolidating, it is already well north of the latest GFS and more in line with the Euro. Even with an LLC forming further south like the GFS shows, the storms still recurves well east of the Lesser Antilles:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#60 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:17 pm

gatorcane wrote:If that convection rolling off Africa with possible MLC is where the LLC ends up consolidating, it is already well north of the latest GFS and more in line with the Euro. Even with an LLC forming further south like the GFS shows, the storms still recurves well east of the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/JnnWmJ6B/goes16-ir-eatl.gif


If only 5-7 day model forecast were right.
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