ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#61 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:If that convection rolling off Africa with possible MLC is where the LLC ends up consolidating, it is already well north of the latest GFS and more in line with the Euro. Even with an LLC forming further south like the GFS shows, the storms still recurves well east of the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/JnnWmJ6B/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

The difference between the GFS and Euro solutions regarding this blob is that the GFS rotates it around the broad wave envelope and down to 10N where it becomes the dominant center, while the Euro keeps it at that latitude. Seeing how poorly the GFS has done handling the evolution of waves coming off of Africa, I’m leaning towards the Euro for now, but maybe the GFS is about to redeem itself.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#62 Postby ouragans » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:42 pm

Invest 95L
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 14, 2021:

Location: 11.3°N 15.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 80 nm


Apparently the center was relocated right on the coast on Guinea Bissau, ENE of the previous position
Last edited by ouragans on Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#63 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:47 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:So here's something that I will say despite our position now as really uncertain about 95L's future. In recent years, while they are the slim but destructive and historic minority, we have seen from time to time storms that seemed to have no chance of amounting to anything, only for such thoughts to be completely turned upside-down as that storm unexpectedly encounters favorable conditions and takes advantage of them and becomes a monster that we still remember to this day. Irma was supposed to turn out to sea or succumb to a TUTT. Maria was supposed to hit the islands as a Category 3 hurricane at peak strength. Florence was supposed to turn out to sea. Michael was supposed to hit Florida as a minimal hurricane. Dorian was supposed to get shredded by Hispaniola, never to be seen again. With that being said, my point is that especially during the infant stages, many of these high-profile, powerful serial killer storms definitely at times sought doubts among hurricane trackers about whether they would truly become anything worth noting. In fact, I honestly cannot recall if any of the retired, monster hurricanes in the recent past was ever in a situation in which all of us were sure from start to finish that they would become the legendary monsters that we remember to this day. All it takes is the right, fortuitious conditions to come in place at the right place and time for a storm that looks like it would not become anything worthy and absolutely turn it into a beast. Such conditions cannot be 100% predicted many days in advance, which is why I think sometimes we are caught off guard and end up eating crow after doubting a historic storm's potential just because it seemed like it was struggling (and we of course automatically infer that such struggles represent the whole situation and conclude erroneously that that storm is done or will underperform; I remember this in particular after tracking Ida).

So with this being said, I am in no way saying that every system that forms in the Atlantic should always be considered to have the potential to become a monster and wreak havoc. However, let's face it: quite a few models have been hinting at 95L to become a decent TC, with quite a few EPS, GEFS, and GEPS ensemble members excited about its development and prospects. Now does this mean 95L will 100% become a land threat and a historic hurricane? No. It has obstacles, for now. However, with all of the shenanigans and nasty storms that have occurred in the recent past (and as I have mentioned earlier, with many of these kinds of storms having their potential not well understood during their early days), I personally am not ready to call off 95L just because there's always that slim chance that some of the aggressive models may be onto something and that our expectations are shattered and this system performs better than we expect it to.


Fast forward 30 years and you are 50. This will read:

"Meh, next"


Maybe you wish you still had that enthusiasm and energy, old man? :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#64 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:48 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#65 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:10 am

I see what looks to be a low forming at 18.6w 11.8N
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#66 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:06 am

A tropical wave located just west of the African coast is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are
showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance over the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves westward at
about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#67 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:57 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#68 Postby ChrisH-UK » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:55 am

95L this morning starting to look health with outflow starting to happen.

Source Metosat=11 Band 1 - https://col.st/He3uu

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#69 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 14, 2021 6:56 am

A tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system
is located about 400 miles southeast of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity continues to
show signs of organization, and environmental conditions are
conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next couple
of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#70 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:33 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#71 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:43 am

Looking at the modeling today it seems a weaker/shallow system will move WNW and impact the GA's... If that happens 95L seems to be trapped under a building HP and could get forced more W into Hispaniola/Cuba and likely dissipate...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#72 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:59 am

The vorticity signature is not impressive yet, but 95L has quite a good spin right now. We should see a better-looking invest by tonight or tomorrow morning. Looks like it’ll concentrate a little further north than the GFS/HWRF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#73 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:01 am

AL, 95, 2021091412, , BEST, 0, 102N, 203W, 25, 1009, DB


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#74 Postby toad strangler » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:06 am

Blown Away wrote:Looking at the modeling today it seems a weaker/shallow system will move WNW and impact the GA's... If that happens 95L seems to be trapped under a building HP and could get forced more W into Hispaniola/Cuba and likely dissipate...


Yesterday Larry 2, today into the GA’s. What are the chances this changes drastically again? Near 100%
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#75 Postby WiscoWx02 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:42 am

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437726002663264269




Jerry(2019) and Karen (2007) analog at best. Bold prediction, but IMO there is a 90% chance this never amounts to much, if anything, at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#76 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:07 am

I can see a lot of possible analogues for this system, depending on the scenario that plays out.

Jerry ‘19 — death by Leeward Islands TUTT after becoming a respectable hurricane

Karen ‘07 — Jerry but more pathetic

Larry — basically the same OTS-ish track

Fabian ‘03 — MH landfall into Bermuda (18z GFS run)

Andrew ‘92 — weak for a while until it passes the TUTT/shear

Danny ‘15 — a small MDR major before running into a wall of shear

Earl ‘10 — weak for a while, goes between East Coast and Bermuda, peaks in WAtl


(Note: I don’t expect 95L to get as strong as Fabian/Andrew/Earl, just that it could follow the same intensity trends)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#77 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:23 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#78 Postby aspen » Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:21 pm

While the circulation seems to be at 12-13N, the CIMSS vorticity map shows that 95L’s vorticity is currently focused at around 10N, favoring a GFS/HWRF-like track in the next 5 days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#79 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:02 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#80 Postby Nimbus » Tue Sep 14, 2021 5:13 pm

aspen wrote:While the circulation seems to be at 12-13N, the CIMSS vorticity map shows that 95L’s vorticity is currently focused at around 10N, favoring a GFS/HWRF-like track in the next 5 days.


Bowling Cape Verde storms you don't like to see these spin up on the 10N triangle marker because it statistically increases the odds of a track passing through the Hebert box later on. Trough off the US coast saves everybody but if there is a heatwave forecast for Wisconsin late in the forcast..
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